TUF 27

Waiting until I get to Vegas to lay some bets down. Looks like I missed some movement. I dont know much about most of these fighters to be honest. May have to tail you guys on Marquez and Pietchota if you're all that confident.

Meanwhile Israel has dropped as a favorite and I'm very high on him. Would love to see that line drop to -150ish. I like Barb to win also.

Ostovich...is she better than she used to be? Her opponent isnt very good. It's hard to call that one.
 
Waiting until I get to Vegas to lay some bets down. Looks like I missed some movement. I dont know much about most of these fighters to be honest. May have to tail you guys on Marquez and Pietchota if you're all that confident.

Meanwhile Israel has dropped as a favorite and I'm very high on him. Would love to see that line drop to -150ish. I like Barb to win also.

Ostovich...is she better than she used to be? Her opponent isnt very good. It's hard to call that one.
Ostovich at +155 is a no brainer for me for a 1u play at least. +240 where she was overnight was insane. Montana has good armbar submissions, and Rachael has been caught that way before, but if Montana doesn't get the sub, I think she loses a wide decision. Osotovich at any + money is a good value bet with her experience against better opponents and greater physicality.
 
Not sure Marquez is tail worthy as a firm fav. Pietchota however should've never touched + odds.
 
Been watching tape on most of the fighters and first impressions are as follows:

Neither Bessette or Peterson are UFC quality, but Peterson offers better pressure while getting hit far less

Oskar Piechota is a monster and Meerschaert should have nothing for his hands OR his ground game. Way he dominated Jonathan Wilson on the ground was unreal, and he wasn't even particularly tired by the end of it

Rachel Ostovich v Montana De La Rosa might be the lowest level fight the UFC ever puts on. Both looked awful in their last wins. Ostovich's striking/ground game seems a fair bit better than De La Rosa's though, the latter's exchanges against Christina Marks were messy

Di Chirico doesn't really have anything spectacular about him at all and leaves his long neck out for chokes quite a bit. Marquez doesn't have the best defence, but Di Chirico's striking is far more rudimentary than his previous opponents. Additionally Round 2 Marquez is somehow an elite fighter on par with Sea Level Cain and Well Fed Ronda

Roxy's striking is all kinds of sloppy and her wrestling is far from elite. If she gets it to the ground then she could pull one out, but Honchak likely pieces her up on the feet (for the record I thought she won her last fight against Lauren Murphy, but either way it was a fight between two high level girls at the top of their division and I don't think Roxy has anything for either of them)

Haven't watched tape on Tavares yet and feel dirty for saying this as a Kiwi but he should win easily - Man has experience in MMA, a strong ground game and while Izzy is tough to take down/decent at getting back to his feet, he really does look lost when he's actually been put on his back
 
Pena

-training @ AKA for ufc debut
-got injury on tuf series early on in the show (foot injury), was annoyed since
everyone got their shot and he did not after his tuf series win.
-says his opponent smullens injury said it was a an overtraining issue
so smullens kidneys broke down and body broke down but he respects his opponent.
-grappled with smullen on tuf series, feels a great match up for him says
both similar fighters but will see who backs down first not bothered with smullen
training @ SBG (lobov, connor mcgregor crew etc)
-been @ aka since early may, training ever since
-adam piccolotti main sparring partner (bellator prospect) worked with MT coach and dc and
2 great mma wrestlers, shawn from LFA.
-says his wrestling has come along nicely but is also improving his striking alot.
-cant see smullen out striking him, but is aware of smullens dangerous leg locks.
wants to get in his face and keep his legs away from him and get a ko.



Smullen
http://www.punditarena.com/mma/ccunningham/exploring-irish-mma-part-ii-richie-smullen/
-got Rhabdomyolysis, CK protein went into
blood stream and kidneys and body broke down so was unable to compete for tuf series fight.
-got legs massaged and then found out that makes it worse.
-went back home to ireland around march 4th after
tuff series and trained in gym daily.
-expects to be in the best shape ever for tuf
fight debut.
-pena oppnonet is legit, has good wrestling
and ji jitsu and good striking but I believe I have all those things also.
-if anyone attempts to grapple with me they are in for a long night.
-smullen goes on to say his ground skillset is that good.
-works with SBG- Connor Mcgregor and lobov
-family, girlfriend and friends flying over to watch ufc debut/
-will come out forward with hands up high and will take pena down and submit him.



Steven peterson

-fighting during internation fight week, big coverage due for this fight so loves it
-felt won rounds 1, 2 but not 3 against davis last fight but the knee in r3 got him 50k
-he is always coming forward and in your face and is the man of steel, does not stick and move and play games.
-opponent matt is a scrappy dude, makes a great fight should be best fight of night.
-will not say too much about game plan but will showcase his striking with a ko, hes going down.
-went to ufc pi and got tested, and learned to recover and show up best version on fight day
-with 50k bonus started a cryo treatment facility, allows him to recover much better
-does a chat or pod cast with some other fighters popping on it
-on point could make weight tommorow, never been an issue even on short notice can hit 145
-matt will come to bang but its not him going down



Matt bessette

-geting into ufc very happy, did not want to go else where can concentrate now on improvements
-improving slowly inbetween fights, but due to level of competition not major but did concentrate on areas a little where he was not as good
-went to a boxing gym to spar with high level pro boxers, 11-0 pro boxer and matt another long rangey boxer
-boxing has improved the most sine feb 2018 to present
-spent 2-3 times a week with wrestlers just to clean up his wrestling. Was ok at wrestling before but needed slight improvements
-considers himself a boxer wrestler now
-says opponent steven is good, chin down and hands up and punchs hard, but says his style is straight forward and he can game plan
easily for him.
-is currently 2 pounds less then before so weight cut is going better then last time.
-striking coach and manager in corner and a doctor also
-has 3 fight ufc contract still.



Julian Marquez

-enjoying double breakfast at ufc pi
-keeping busy, dancing, charities
-knows eryk anders (ufc fighter) did training at syndicate mma
did training with him also for this camp.
-didnt want this lay off but got the call so was more then ready
-ufc did try to book the alessio fight but on very
short notice earlier but julian wanted a longer camp and
was in middle of family duties
-expects alessio to take him down and not stand with him
and is ready for the ground game or stand up.
-use to 15 minutes of hard work so match up is perfect
-not worried about the investigation work on opponent
lets coaches do it, more focused on his strengths and weaknesses
-went xtreme courture and syndicate(MT fighter)to train and some decent 185ers
so was great and ufc pi also. Trained with
a ji jitsu fighter also, Got more focused
training at ufc pi also.
-zak cummings will corner him since hes worked and trained
with him whole career.
-will land his boxing combinations and will frustrate allesio, expects him to go for take downs
but will pop back up also.
-grew up with a wrestling from one fight to another so is use to it.





Montano de la rosa

-had pratice few hours ago and has to teach a class soon
-wanted a ufc fight but they could not find anyone, lots of 125ers trying atm
-trained with rachael on tuf, but knows shes very tough but expects to finish her.
Suggest her skill set is better then hers in any area.
-christina williams(bellator wmma) was her sparring and training partner, gin and few other amatuers she works with
-worked at home, has a good ji jitsu system and training system so stuck with it.
-been on diet, long time to train so plenty of time to cut down.
-mark husband (mma fighter), cobello in corner
-wants to strike, but it will probably go on the ground and wants to submit her opponent as she often does.


Rachael Ostovich
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4jyxPvPmw
-loved tuf series experience, been her dream and wish could go back. In touch still with deanna and few others.
-getting ufc debut and dominate win in r1 was a dream come true
-was in good shape and wanted a quick turn around but everything has its time and place so took the time to work
on conditioning and improving herself.
-knew she was going to fight rosa at one point, since both won there first fights but not 2nd to get thru to next round.
-loves rosa but gotta do what you gotta do, says rosa is well rounded and she is the same. Both great in all areas but
styles make good match ups so excited for this fight.
-trains with some of the guys but had a women fighter that matches her same reach and height to prepare her with distance,
timing for this fight.
-use to struggle with weight cuts but past 18 months its been better. Has put on more muscle this camp, but had to eat more to get to right weight levels so is happy with it.
-mum will be in her corner
-expects a win but expects it to go anywhere




Israel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHlNepbUWqw
-in the gym, just signing off his medicals to be cleared for this fight
-happy to be main card since all the hard work has paid off
-wants to take out no 10 guy here to get further.
-disapointed against vett and heard he reckons he won but blames himself a bit for not stopping him, said he had another 2 rounds left
in him an wished he had the chance to finish it more.
-believes no one has a chin but people have thresholds, but everyone has a button to find and couldnt find in vetts last time.
-not watched much of brads fight just his last fight.
-Brad is a solid competitor but he is much easier to read then vett was, his coaches do the game plan and research though.
suggest he is good to read on the fly with opponents, seen brads moves all the times but is strong with his basics but it makes him easier to beat but harder to beat too.
-worked with same guys, just done wrestling and ji jitsu classes and no some pad work.
-worked with daniel hooker for this fight since both guys are fighting similar time.
-eating crispy cremes, eats whatever he wants but does eat good stuff too, but waits 3 weeks out for the weight cut since its easy for him now.
-expects the fight wont be a walk in the park but hes read brad many times, he will adjust to any new things he brings expects his best performance here.
-want top 10, will enjoy taking his spot and will go up but not bothered with rankings always
-doesn't want to overestimate brad still, wants winner of hall/costa next
 
Anyone have thoughts on Pena vs smullen? We didn’t get to see smullen fight but hes giving up 5 inches and a large reach to Pena. Does he just try to wrestlefuck? I think Pena dominates him.
 
Anyone have thoughts on Pena vs smullen? We didn’t get to see smullen fight but hes giving up 5 inches and a large reach to Pena. Does he just try to wrestlefuck? I think Pena dominates him.

Pena is a max bet at anything better than -300. He was +145 at one point!
 
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The people's main event.
 
I can already tell Izzy is going to be a thorn in my side. Anyone who can grapple will be bet but how many times will we get burnt fading him...

In terms of the injury. If it was that bad he wouldn't get cleared right?

Sorry I missed this but I'll reply now.

Yeah I think the injury worry is nothing. Tavares was really adamant that something really minor got blown way, WAY out of proportion. I can't remember what fight it was, but a few years ago a guy dislocated a finger in camp and someone there leaked that it was a "gruesome" looking injury and blah blah blah. Well, yeah, a dislocated finger looks kinda bad before you pop it back in. And then once you do it's just not a big deal. My guess is that it's something similar to that.

As for the matchup, Tavares is just way, WAY better than Vettori at this point. Better skillset, better gas tank, better power. And Vettori was pretty competitive with Israel. The thing is, I don't think Tavares HAS to force grappling exchanges to have success. He can crack, has good timing, and has a solid chin. Obviously ideally he wants to put Israel on his back, but it's not like Brad can't hang standing too.

Would I play Brad as a favorite? Probably not, would be a pass for me most likely. But at +160 for sure he has value here. No question.
 
Sorry I missed this but I'll reply now.

Yeah I think the injury worry is nothing. Tavares was really adamant that something really minor got blown way, WAY out of proportion. I can't remember what fight it was, but a few years ago a guy dislocated a finger in camp and someone there leaked that it was a "gruesome" looking injury and blah blah blah. Well, yeah, a dislocated finger looks kinda bad before you pop it back in. And then once you do it's just not a big deal. My guess is that it's something similar to that.

As for the matchup, Tavares is just way, WAY better than Vettori at this point. Better skillset, better gas tank, better power. And Vettori was pretty competitive with Israel. The thing is, I don't think Tavares HAS to force grappling exchanges to have success. He can crack, has good timing, and has a solid chin. Obviously ideally he wants to put Israel on his back, but it's not like Brad can't hang standing too.

Would I play Brad as a favorite? Probably not, would be a pass for me most likely. But at +160 for sure he has value here. No question.
Yeah. There's al ot of bones and muscles in the foot. Can easily do damage to a minor one, it swells up for a day or two and then it's fine within a week.
 
Any leans to Matt Besette vs Peterson ? Im favouring Besette, he is bigger and had a competetive fight with Barzola.
 
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