TUF 25 Finale - Gaethje vs Johnson - Vegas

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Elias is p4p my least favorite fighter to watch. Just spams kicks continuously that do absolutely zero damage. I believe Mutante broke his hand during their fight, which, along with fading, is why he lost. He busted Elias up with counter straight lefts until the injury.
 
Tebowned said:
Devil's advocate on Elias. I hate the dude but his striking is underrated. Tavares striking stinks defensively. His offense is not that good either.

Elias did very well versus Thiago Santos standing and actually took the first round spamming kicks on the outside. His defense was also very good as he got hit with one big shot the whole night.
Tavares has been tagged hard in a lot of his fights but that Hawaiian chin is so sturdy. I don't think Elias will finish him but he'll be able to tag him a lot imo. Also like you said he doesn't really have a high output standing.

Elias I think has the better wrestling and grappling on paper, if not even. It wasn't long ago Bubba freaking Mcdaniel took a round off Brad after he took him down and controlled him.
Elias was out-wrestled a bit by Mutante but Mutante is huge and has really good takedowns.

With that said I don't think it's gonna be a wrestling match. I think It's gonna be a craptastic kickboxing match with Elias playing on the outside doing his funky kicking game and outpointing Brad in rounds 1-2 and winning a 29-28 decision.
I think Brad is gonna be the bigger stronger fighter but I believe Elias is more skilled overall. Both of their styles are usually horrendous to watch though.

If Elias is somehow juiced, I won't touch anything but the over. If he's really juiced, I'll probably bet Brad and probably Brad points as I see him taking one round(probably the 3rd.)
Usually Brad is respected by the bookies so I'd like a good line on Elias. Brad was the favorite over Yoel, Whitaker, and Tim Boestch. He's been the underdog like twice in 14 UFC fights.
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I think Brad has trouble with powerful guys. That's been his issue throughout. Simpson and Romero mainly bullied him with wrestling. Boetsch and Whitakker landed with their power. He hasn't really had issues with guys striking on the outside on their way to decision and he's stuffed a lot of takedowns throughout his career. That's what he used to be known for - hard to takedown and he could force you to strike. Against a guy like Larkin, he could mix in takedowns. I just don't see a guy that will spam kicks and shoot takedowns with hips high doing much against him, however, I'd still be very worried about Elias's activity vs. Tavares's inactivity. I favor Tavares, but I wouldn't play him as a moderate favorite.
 
They reopened MJ at +107 i maxxed that line. I cap him around -160.

Also bet Ponz +127 I dont think Gunnar can take him down. Pick em fight imo maybe even favouring Ponz slightly.
 
Agent Mulder said:
They reopened MJ at +107 i maxxed that line. I cap him around -160.

Also bet Ponz +127 I dont think Gunnar can take him down. Pick em fight imo maybe even favouring Ponz slightly.
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fuck i wish i hit ponz at +250. gunnar being a slight fav makes sense but i favour ponz stylistically.
 
Tavares should have his way with Elias imo
 
edole said:
Tavares should have his way with Elias imo
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If his way is a 29-28 decision lol.
He's 30-27'd only Tom Watson and Nate Marquardt IIRC. He's won a lot of 29-28s and some of them splits. Some think he lost to Yang.
He's finished one person 6 years ago and that person was an undersized Phil Baroni who also hurt brad IIRC.

Not saying he can't win but I think he opens as a fav and he's square as hell. Look up teh Brad tavares vs Bubba Mcdaniels betting thread. People who bet him at -550 were shook.
 
Oblivian said:
Better in what aspect? Tavares is pretty technically sound everywhere. Tavares is definitely better standing, most likely better on the ground overall, and I don't think his wrestling is worse. His main area that he may struggle here is activity level. I don't think this will be a blowout by any means, but Tavares would have to fight a pretty poor fight to drop this one IMO.
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Tavares was less active, Theodoru has grappling advantage and his striking is boring, but not worse than Thiago's
 
EzFlyer said:
how'd you come to that #? like how do you see it playing out
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Justin absorbs way too many punches against strikers that are slower, has less technique and power. Now he's facing MJ who is very fast, has excellent hands, leg kicks and far superior foot work. While Justin obviously has a great chin, he relies on it way too much and a guy like MJ could punish him hard for that.

I see people refering to the Nate fight but Nate is a much different fighter compared to Justin. Nate has a good jab, good at controlling the range and slips punches very well. MJ actually did very well in the first round where he mixed it up and landed both punches and some hard leg kicks. Eventually, Nates trash talk got to him and MJ just started head hunting and abandoned his leg kicks all together just looking for the one punch KO blow and this is, in my opinion, why he lost the fight against Nate.

I would cap MJ at -200 if it wasn't for the fact that Justin CAN wrestle, I dont think he will, but he COULD. It's hard for me to find any area where Justin has the advantage over MJ besides wrestling. My prediction is MJ round 1 KO.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Justin absorbs way too many punches against strikers that are slower, has less technique and power. Now he's facing MJ who is very fast, has excellent hands, leg kicks and far superior foot work. While Justin obviously has a great chin, he relies on it way too much and a guy like MJ could punish him hard for that.

I see people refering to the Nate fight but Nate is a much different fighter compared to Justin. Nate has a good jab, good at controlling the range and slips punches very well. MJ actually did very well in the first round where he mixed it up and landed both punches and some hard leg kicks. Eventually, Nates trash talk got to him and MJ just started head hunting and abandoned his leg kicks all together just looking for the one punch KO blow and this is, in my opinion, why he lost the fight against Nate.

I would cap MJ at -200 if it wasn't for the fact that Justin CAN wrestle, I dont think he will, but he COULD. It's hard for me to find any area where Justin has the advantage over MJ besides wrestling. My prediction is MJ round 1 KO.
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what about gaethje's leg kicks? (and he might have power edge)
 
EzFlyer said:
what about gaethje's leg kicks? (and he might have power edge)
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Yeah Justins leg kicks is one of his best weapons for sure but I dont think they are superior to MJ. I feel the problem for him is gonna be to land them too, MJ has better foot work and cut angles so I think he will land more of them. Power edge, hmm maybe, hard to say.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Justin absorbs way too many punches against strikers that are slower, has less technique and power. Now he's facing MJ who is very fast, has excellent hands, leg kicks and far superior foot work. While Justin obviously has a great chin, he relies on it way too much and a guy like MJ could punish him hard for that.

I see people refering to the Nate fight but Nate is a much different fighter compared to Justin. Nate has a good jab, good at controlling the range and slips punches very well. MJ actually did very well in the first round where he mixed it up and landed both punches and some hard leg kicks. Eventually, Nates trash talk got to him and MJ just started head hunting and abandoned his leg kicks all together just looking for the one punch KO blow and this is, in my opinion, why he lost the fight against Nate.

I would cap MJ at -200 if it wasn't for the fact that Justin CAN wrestle, I dont think he will, but he COULD. It's hard for me to find any area where Justin has the advantage over MJ besides wrestling. My prediction is MJ round 1 KO.
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im not doubting your play but michael johnson has a 35 percent conect rate which is horrible.
 
quincy k said:
im not doubting your play but michael johnson has a 35 percent conect rate which is horrible.
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Fair enough but Justin doesn't have any head movement or any foot work to speak of. He just ducks his head a bit and puts his guard up when you hit him. MJ could blast him with an uppercut. Also, MJ isn't just gonna stand there with his leg screaming to get kicked like Firmino and Palomino for example.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Fair enough but Justin doesn't have any head movement or any foot work to speak of. He just ducks his head a bit and puts his guard up when you hit him. Also, MJ isn't just gonna stand there with his leg screaming to get kicked like Firmino and Palomino for example.
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as well as justin is fighting much inferior competition so his fight metrics are skewed.
 
piglord said:
fuck i wish i hit ponz at +250. gunnar being a slight fav makes sense but i favour ponz stylistically.
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Got +250 but max bet was £88 :(

Ps MJ said he's going to pressure Justin to negate his low kicks.
 
Start time Friday 6 PM EST

Michael Johnson vs. Justin Gaethje
Marc Diakiese vs. Drakkar Klose
Jared Cannonier vs. Steve Bosse
Brad Tavares vs. Elias Theodorou
Jordan Johnson vs. Marcel Fortuna
Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder
Ed Herman vs. CB Dollaway
Jessica Eye vs. Aspen Ladd
Gray Maynard vs. Teruto Ishihara
Tecia Torres vs. Juliana Lima

ptfJknm.jpg
 
I actually think that MJs boxing is pretty overrated and I feel that the fight with Nate exposed that a bit. The reach and mind games played a big factor, but he was unable to capitalize on Nate's constant leaning in and overextending on punches.

MJ frequently throws wild hooks that hit air. But what he lacks in accuracy and technique, he makes up for with speed and volume.

While his boxing isn't great, Gaethje is probably the perfect opponent for it with his lack of head movement and often plodding style.
 
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