TUF 25 Finale - Gaethje vs Johnson - Vegas | Page 31

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jun 12, 2017.

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  1. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    i'm thinking about it. there is a line or two i'm eyeing (watching movement).

    i do have lima dec at +4xx (forget the #), tho.
     
    #601
  2. DarkneT Sherdog hero

    DarkneT
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    Damn really? I can't see anything but a JT decision here man
     
    #602
  3. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    yea, i think it's going 3 more often than not.. and over 4:1 i gotta take that chance.
     
    #603
  4. Oblivian Aging

    Oblivian
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    Man, I think Taylor is going to maul Lima. The problem with Lima is that he can't finish well. Lima's last finish was 2013. Taylor isn't a guy you normally win by decision against either. He's had one decision loss ever and that was in 2009. I just don't see him keeping Taylor off of him, and I think Taylor can do some damage to him on the ground. I think Krause is a better version of Lima and he couldn't win a round + got finished.
     
    #604
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  5. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    i think lima is bigger/better tdd than krause, which is relevant here
     
    #605
  6. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    MMA Goodfella
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    FUN FACTS:


    When Ed Herman made his octagon debut in 2006, UFC fighters Aspen Ladd and Teruto Ishihara — who will fight on the same event — were 11 and 12-years old respectively.

    2008 TUF 7 runner-up Jesse Taylor has a unanimous decision victory over former HW and current LHW fighter Marcel Fortuna. Incidentally, shares a spot on the same event tonight.​
     
    #606
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  7. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    mj KO is +170, and i don't get why. mj itd is only -105

    he's not subbing squat

    i'm on gaethje but i'm playing this +170
     
    #607
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  8. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    here's the thing. i can't lay decent -odds on jt money, i just can't. dude's been subbed 14x. he is the most predictable fighter on the planet.
     
    #608
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  9. rev0lver Orange Belt

    rev0lver
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    Not gonna debate much. But I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Maynard win. He didn't look out of it in his last fight, just dominated by a style he couldn't handle. Ishihara's whatever and seems like he struggles with experienced fighters.

    I love Angela Hill, but this is actually a bad matchup for her. I think she should be the better fighter, but I would not be surprised at all to see this go the other way. Andrade fought Hill's game because she's better at Hill's game. Yoder doesn't have to.

    Krause and Johnson are locks to me

    I'm not dropping hundreds on Tavares but I HOPE he wins lol
     
    #609
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  10. NewcastleTom Purple Belt

    NewcastleTom
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    To play devil advocate, watching tape is always an advantage but maybe not worth it for many people. It seems like a ton of people mostly live bet, maybe 2/3 of their total on an event is through live betting. Except for debuting fighters you pretty much know fighter A or B has the best cardio (for live betting) or they are about even. After that you are trusting your eyes watching the fight (even for cardio). AlsoI find people watching tape have a pre conceived notion going in and just look to verify that notion even when maybe it is not there sometimes.

    If you love watching tape or get a lot out of it and make a killing on pre fight bets, that is great. For some, the time spent doesn't equal the benefit. Some people have an amazing recall of past fights without re-watching (I'm not one of them unfortunately) and sometimes those impressions are valuable. Watching a fight when you know the outcome is a different view from watching it live for me - sometimes the live feeling is a good takeaway too). For example re-watching a fight that went the distance, a near sub finish or when someone gets rocked seems kind of minor while watching it live I was on my feet looking for the finish - I'll remember that from the fight. But on rewatch, I'm more A won round 1, B dominant round 2 then fighter A took the 3rd round and kind of discount the near finish (maybe people are better at re-watching then me)
     
    #610
  11. Oblivian Aging

    Oblivian
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    I hear you. I'd feel that way at higher odds. Honestly, I thought he'd be -300 or so. Lima is not a great finisher and I think you need to be able to finish to beat Taylor most of the time. Taylor looked great against Hassan and Krause as well.
     
    #611
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  12. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    disclaimer:
    i'm WELL aware of torres' history, amateur and pro. all the decisions. etc.

    i like tecia NSC -181. lima is an even LESSER finishing threat. she, too, has been in pretty much all decisions in her career. at least torres has LOOKED threatening a couple times.

    i FULLY expect this to push when it hits the scorecards, but i just CANNOT see lima finishing tecia.
     
    #612
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  13. rev0lver Orange Belt

    rev0lver
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    I've wanted to start live betting ever since I dropped a ton on Yahya against Soto feeling confident he would dominate him. Just sucks for me as someone always busy on weekends not always able to watch live.
     
    #613
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  14. ChaelSonnen** The American Gangster

    ChaelSonnen**
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    Can't believe Drakkar Klose is such a big underdog. We've seen Diakiese get dominated in the grappling department by a Polish journeyman and an unranked LW coming off a 1.5 year layoff. Drakkar is on a whole other level compared to those 2.

    Definitely betting the house on Klose.
     
    #614
  15. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    torres-lima really is hysterical

    the only two times either of them didn't go to decision were years ago when lima beat two girls who were 0-0. one of them is still 0-1 years later and the other one is now 0-2. lol
     
    #615
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  16. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    idk about dominating.. think that's a bit much.
     
    #616
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  17. rev0lver Orange Belt

    rev0lver
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    For some reason Diakiese's team seems ultra confident about his grappling ability right now

    But we've heard that before
     
    #617
  18. Oblivian Aging

    Oblivian
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    Lol dominated in grappling vs. Perez? Diakese literally won that fight due to outgrappling Perez in Rd 1 and Rd 3.
     
    #618
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  19. quincy k Purple Belt

    quincy k
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    because someone bet mj not itd big and they are trying to balance their books
     
    #619
  20. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    Decided to go with the over 2.5 at -112 instead. Small, just to win 0.5u.
     
    #620
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