Trump's Border Wall and The Upcoming Elections

Rational Poster said:
That just isn't true.

Republican candidates have lost significant support in every single special election since Trump took office, even the ones they won. Massive shifts of 20 points or more in the opposite direction.

Candidates personally endorsed by Trump have been met with defeat.

I don't think @waiguoren is overestimating the importance of the wall. The wall was the main campaign promise from Trump without question.

I think he's underestimating a Trump's supporter's desire for measurable results in practical reality. Even with no wall, they won't care. Hell he can still run on build the wall since no wall has been built and they'll still love it.

They just like simple slogans.

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waiguoren said:
It's his central campaign promise. Immigration is the #1 issue for Republican voters as shown by multiple national polls. I think you're underestimating it.

The economy is cyclical. There will be a downturn under Trump's watch. He failed on health care. He can't screw up immigration.

Republicans have lost massive support in the special elections. Look what just happened in OH12. That is a deep red district and the Republican barely held on. This is a bit misleading because Trump has sacrificed wealthy suburban support for working class support, but overall it's been bad for the Republicans.
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What happens every year to the party in power? They lose seats.

Dem losses with high turnouts, are still losses.


I’d argue they’re doing ok, it will most likely look better than Obama’s off year elections.
 
Anyone got a Mexican Peso count for the wall fund yet?
 
waiguoren said:
This was a conversation about turnout, right? How can Trump get a boost in the midterms? My claim is that insisting on funding for the wall pre-November is a winning strategy. Ryan and McConnell will have to buckle. If the Democrats insist on a shutdown over wall funding, they will get killed in November. I don't see the political downside. Do you agree with @bobgeese that insisting on wall funding would rev up the other side more than it would rev up the Republicans?
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I actually agree with you, IF we forced them to shut down the government over immigration.


Unfortunately, that would require republicans to have a backbone.
 
bobgeese said:
I actually agree with you, IF we forced them to shut down the government over immigration.


Unfortunately, that would require republicans to have a backbone.
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No, just Trump. Almost all the other Republicans will heel to him if he makes it a national issue. If he calls for a shutdown loudly on Twitter and elsewhere, you think McConnell/Ryan are going to resist?
 
waiguoren said:
This was a conversation about turnout, right? How can Trump get a boost in the midterms? My claim is that insisting on funding for the wall pre-November is a winning strategy. Ryan and McConnell will have to buckle. If the Democrats insist on a shutdown over wall funding, they will get killed in November. I don't see the political downside. Do you agree with @bobgeese that insisting on wall funding would rev up the other side more than it would rev up the Republicans?
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If the Dems "insist" on a shut down or even if they trojan horse another issue and "allow" a shutdown why do you state as fact that the dems would get killed in the midterms?
My thought is no matter what the minority does in year 2 of a first term they will win seats. It would be astonishing and unprecedented if dems get "killed" .
Let's be honest, they have been doing nothing to gain any political traction or capital and still have done well in special elections. As is normal. What will change that if dems "insist" on opposing the wall or its funding.

And to add, if Mexico paid for it the dems wouldn't care if it were built...
 
MMAViewer said:
f the Dems "insist" on a shut down or even if they trojan horse another issue and "allow" a shutdown why do you state as fact that the dems would get killed in the midterms?
My thought is no matter what the minority does in year 2 of a first term they will win seats. It would be astonishing and unprecedented if dems get "killed" .
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Thanks for this response. I meant "killed" relative to a normal midterm performance. So maybe +10 seats instead of +30. Sorry for being unclear.
 
waiguoren said:
Thanks for this response. I meant "killed" relative to a normal midterm performance. So maybe +10 seats instead of +30. Sorry for being unclear.
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I can see 15-20 seats being the low end, and 20-25 on the high end. Regardless of the dems actions. The "resistance" will show up in droves that the incumbent voters will never be able to match.
 
waiguoren said:
you think McConnell/Ryan are going to resist?
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Quite possibly, Ryan is on his way out.

Not to mention the only thing important to the politicians is what the donors think. They want all the cheap labor they can get,
 
bobgeese said:
Quite possibly, Ryan is on his way out.

Not to mention the only thing important to the politicians is what the donors think. They want all the cheap labor they can get,
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If Ryan is on his way out he does not care about donors imo. If he is not on his way out he is positioned to do well by ignoring trump. Yes he will resist.
 
kenetics said:
He won't. He may not even be I'm office anymore due to everyone who were in his cabinet have been convicted and sentence to federal prison lol.

I can only imagine what the FBI are going to hit him with it when he is finally charged lol.
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AV bet: Trump's border wall will begin construction before election day 2020.
 
waiguoren said:
AV bet: Trump's border wall will begin construction before election day 2020.
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Not begin bet, but fully functioning wall. Those weak prototype walls to keep his base happy don't count lol.
 
kenetics said:
Not begin bet, but fully functioning wall. Those weak prototype walls to keep his base happy don't count lol.
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So you agree with me that the wall will be started, but you don't think it will ever be finished?
 
waiguoren said:
So you agree with me that the wall will be started, but you don't think it will ever be finished?
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Yes . I think it will start just so that he keeps his base to win another team. That's if he is not impeached after the investigation by the FBI is complete.

So yes , he will start a so call wall or more like a fence lol.
 
kenetics said:
Yes . I think it will start just so that he keeps his base to win another team. That's if he is not impeached after the investigation by the FBI is complete.
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AV bet that Trump will not be impeached/removed.



kenetics said:
So yes , he will start a so call wall or more like a fence lol.
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Is this a wall or a fence?
prototypes-6.jpg
 
waiguoren said:
AV bet that Trump will not be impeached/removed.






Is this a wall or a fence?
prototypes-6.jpg
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I will AV bet that the wall will never be completed along the ENTIRE southwestern border.

That fence,wall thing looks cheap . That's not going to stop drug cartels lol. It may slow down regular folks.

The wall is not the answer. It's the big corporations in America that hire illegals. You're boy trump won't go after his buddies though.
 
waiguoren said:
It's part of the answer.



The Trump administration has increased raids on businesses compared to the Obama administration.
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Obama triggers Trump and his Trumptards so bad it's pathetic lol. Trump needs to worry about his presidency instead of comparing himself to Obama all the time.

Trump and his base needs to move on. I haven't seen any big corporation hit by trump when it comes to illegal hiring.

Trump himself employed alot of Latin people who most likely weren't legal. Got to pay low wages to maintain his homes and businesses .
 
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