I may literally have the opposite opinion to you.
If Woodley and Ferguson fought, I think it'd be a demonstration of how so many fans are obsessed with weight classes. Of how fans create a separation in their minds between fighters from each of their divisions...
Ferguson would have the size advantage against Woodley. He's taller and longer, and it'd give him an advantage on the feet. His leverage would complement his wrestling skills in making it difficult for Woodley to take down and control him. Woodley would be reduced to having a puncher's chance. He's a very predictable fighter (the opposite of Ferg); he'd back up against the cage and throw overhands.
Essentially, Tony is taller, longer, a better striker, with good enough wrestling to stop takedowns, with better submissions, much better cardio, and unmatched unpredictability. He should be a comfortable favorite.
People overrate and misunderstand size advantages. Weight classes are there to separate fighters of different SIZES. They aren't just about separating weight. As weight increases, so do height and reach. Even then, weight, height, and reach are all just 3 variables in a complicated style matchup. Then, when matchups are made, fighters can be compared more specifically. Just because most WW have a size advantage over most LW, doesn't mean they all do. So, let's compare the fighters:
Ferguson
- Striking advantage
- Submission advantage
- Cardio advantage
- Unpredictability advantage
- Chin advantage (possibly)
- 2 inches of height, aiding some of the above points, plus helps with leverage and distance for TDD
- 2 inches of reach, aiding some of the above points, plus helps with leverage and distance for TDD
- Fewer pounds to cut, increasing the cardio advantage
Woodley
- A big right hand
- Powerful takedowns
- 10 lbs or so of muscle that only serve to aid the above 2 points, while reducing Tyron's cardio