The War Room Bet Thread V3

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Jun 17, 2018.

  1. HomerThompson

    HomerThompson President of the War Room Platinum Member

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    No bet. I spelled it out in the thread, before you agreed. Now you're backing down. Only 2 seats is no bet considering the make up of the Senate races.
     
  2. JamesRussler

    JamesRussler You can call me Jimmy

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    What would be an acceptable number for you? 60 seats is running the table on red states, so it's just a bit too bullish if I'm being realistic.

    Awww what the hell... 2 months isn't very long, and we pulled off the "blue wall" upset before. I guess there's no reason we can't do it again. Sign me up for 60 seats in November. You bastard.
     
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  3. HomerThompson

    HomerThompson President of the War Room Platinum Member

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    Word.

    @Lead
     
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  4. JamesRussler

    JamesRussler You can call me Jimmy

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    Ok, so here are the final terms of our signature bet:
    • I WIN if (1) Republicans keep the House and (2) gain net 9 seats in the Senate (i.e. 60 seats total)
    • YOU WIN if (1) Democrats win the House and (2) have a net loss of 8 seats or less in the Senate.
    If we split, then we both lose. Duration of the signature is 2 months.
     
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  5. HomerThompson

    HomerThompson President of the War Room Platinum Member

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    Agreed.
     
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  6. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator Platinum Member

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    Can we agree winning the house is 218 seats and that we count independents to whichever party they would caucus with? Same rules with Senate?

    @HomerThompson v. @JamesRussler
    1 & 2. 2018 Midterm Election results- James wins if (1) Republicans retain at least 218 seats in the House and (2) gain net 9 seats in the Senate (i.e. 60 seats total). Homer wins if (1) Democrats reach 218 seats or more in the House and (2) lose under 8 seats in the Senate.
    3. 11/07/2018 (tentative, races could take longer to call)
    4. Signature bet
    5. 2 months (tentatively 11/07/18-01/06/19)
    6. In the situation, neither of the two events happen, the bet is null

    I need both of you to quote this and give an okay.
     
  7. JamesRussler

    JamesRussler You can call me Jimmy

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    Agreed.
     
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  8. HomerThompson

    HomerThompson President of the War Room Platinum Member

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    Okay.
     
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  9. HomerThompson

    HomerThompson President of the War Room Platinum Member

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    Please don't get banned before I win.

    Thanks in advance!
     
  10. JamesRussler

    JamesRussler You can call me Jimmy

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    :mad:
     
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  11. waiguoren

    waiguoren Red Belt

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    1 Trump will not lose the 2020 Republican primary contest.
    2 Trump will not be indicted for any crimes while in office.
    3 Robert Mueller's investigation will not conclude that Trump attempted to offer US policy concessions to Russia in exchange for access to the hacked DNC e-mails.
    4 Cory Booker will not be the Democratic nominee in 2020.
    5 The Republicans will hold the Senate in the 2018 election.
    6 Trump will not be removed from office via political means (e.g., 25th Amendment, impeachment+removal)
    7 (Note: this item is void in the event that Gillibrand does not run) During the Democratic primary race for the 2020 US presidential election, one of the other Democratic candidates or their respective political campaigns will mention publicly one of the following:
    1. Kirsten Gillibrand's opposition to comprehensive immigration reform
    2. Gillibrand's support for legislation making English the official language of the USA
    3. Gillibrand's opposition to "sanctuary" jurisdictions
    4. Gillibrand's opposition to giving government contracts to firms that hire illegal aliens
    5. Gillibrand's support for the SAVE Act
    6. Gillibrand's 100% positive rating with the NRA
    7. Gillibrand's previous claim that she keeps "two rifles under her bed"
    8. Gillibrand's opposition to giving driver's licenses to illegal aliens





    I'm happy with this.

    By the way, 3) is a narrow claim which I devised directly in response to one of your previous claims. Obviously, if Mueller finds that Trump offered policy concessions but cannot demonstrate a reason, that would be a win for me.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2018
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  12. Cubo de Sangre

    Cubo de Sangre Steel Belt

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    tl;dr: Marriage contract?

    :eek:
     
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  13. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator Platinum Member

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    Waiting on Jack but this will be a nightmare to iron out
     
  14. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator Platinum Member

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    It's on
     
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  15. waiguoren

    waiguoren Red Belt

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    :eek::eek::eek:


    ...........





    <NewGina>
     
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  16. HomerThompson

    HomerThompson President of the War Room Platinum Member

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    <5>
     
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  17. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator Platinum Member

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    I know we can change a users title but idk about signatures. I can ask the higher ups but in the case we can't, the punishment is still valid if he ever chooses to log back in. Also, the win still counts towards your record/ ranking/ e-cred/ etc.

    Some of these bets are so far in the future, I kinda expect these issues to arise.
     
  18. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    Bunch of issues where individually his odds are pretty good or are unknown, but collectively they aren't.

    I don't get the inclusion of the NRA and gun stuff in 7. That's totally against the spirit of that item. Doesn't really matter, but on principle, I can't accept that.

    3 is a key one. 3, 4, and 5 are the ones I'm interested in. 1 and 6 don't move the needle on your chances materially, for example (Republicans will never convict Trump). 7 is trivia. 4 and 5 are likely wins for you individually and collectively (maybe a hair under two-thirds). But 3 shifts it. To be clear, my view is that the hacks were the most obvious offer that Russia could have (they also could be enriching Trump personally and funneling campaign money through the NRA), and we know that they met directly with the campaign and with campaign-connected people to discuss the hacks before they released them. The question is just whether it was anything specific or just a general, "yes, we're your bitches," and I don't think anyone can reliably handicap that.

    Not interested in betting on Trump winning the general?
     
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  19. waiguoren

    waiguoren Red Belt

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    @Jack V Savage

    Ok, then we can simplify things for us and @Lead :

    1 Robert Mueller's investigation will not conclude that Trump attempted to offer US policy concessions to Russia in exchange for access to the hacked DNC e-mails.

    2 Cory Booker will not be the Democratic nominee in 2020.

    3 The Republicans will hold the Senate in the 2018 election.
     
  20. waiguoren

    waiguoren Red Belt

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    @Jack V Savage

    let's get rolling

    BTW I did not intend to be sneaky by throwing the two gun items into the Gillibrand part. I felt that by enumerating the ways in which other Democrats might criticize Gillibrand on immigration, I was lowering my chances compared to the previous wording. I added the gun stuff to try to balance that.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2018

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