Economy The U.S-China Trade War: China said it would impose retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. goods

You're welcome to go contribute in any of the other derailed, Trump-centric threads on this subject, @MadSquabbles500 , and leave this serious discussion to others who appreciates it.

In fact, I insists. Please go.

It's certainly been a glorious thread. I was able to contain myself up until @JonesBones came up in here with the 'Murican Swag on 9000, then civic nationalism (or something) took hold.
 
China debt clearly an issue but i feel some scale is needed.

USA debt is 107% of GDP (pretax cut)
China debt is 65% of GDP.
Both 2017 figures.

I do question the nation building effectiveness of the recent growth in us debt.

Trump cucking China hard.

Issuing public debt to build employment or to build asset prices???? Hmmm which is better.
 
Following In US Footsteps, Germany Targets Chinese Investments

WASHINGTON -- Protectionist noise from Germany is growing louder, as Berlin plans to crack down on Chinese investments, by significantly lowering the threshold for intervening in takeovers.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, like the Trump administration, is taking steps to expand its ability to block foreign deals deemed as threats to national security. Germany’s economy minister, Peter Altmaier, told the newspaper Die Welt that lowering the threshold was necessary in order to monitor “more acquisitions in sensitive sectors of the economy.”

Berlin can currently veto the sale of at least 25 percent of a German company’s equity to an investor outside of the European Union. The government now wants to reduce that threshold to 15 percent.

“We want to be able to take a much closer look at companies in the defense sector and in critical infrastructures, and certain other civilian technologies that are relevant to security, such as IT security,” Altmaier said
 
More quality content.



18:45-19:45 is very interesting

"Today courtesy of the millenials the United States is the top consuming power, and courtesy of the boomers we're the top investment power. But by 2030, we're the only consumption power and only investment power. We are in the midst of the great transition: The United States is becoming the only country in the world that can absorb global exports at the same time we have lost all political interest in doing so, and that will force catastrophic change everywhere... but here."

https://www.bigspeak.com/speakers/peter-zeihan/



ah yes, i have watched a few of his keynote. Good posts brother
 






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Id really like to see a similar breakdown for other countries.
The ageing population is synonymous with wealth, can't think of a good country that doesn't have it.
 
ah yes, i have watched a few of his keynote. Good posts brother

His analysis is ridiculously good and you can't knock his credentials but (light trolling aside) even I'm skeptical about the supreme level of optimism he often puts across. OTOH, so much of what he was calling four-plus years ago has already started coming to fruition.
 
More quality content.



18:45-19:45 is very interesting

"Today courtesy of the millenials the United States is the top consuming power, and courtesy of the boomers we're the top investment power. But by 2030, we're the only consumption power and only investment power. We are in the midst of the great transition: The United States is becoming the only country in the world that can absorb global exports at the same time we have lost all political interest in doing so, and that will force catastrophic change everywhere... but here."

https://www.bigspeak.com/speakers/peter-zeihan/


I thought Millenials are largely in debt, and under employed, still living at home consume, more only by racking up more debt. They failed to compete in STEM with the Hindus, and East Asians. I hear the Gen Z is not that much better. Also there is another thread on here about the wealth gap within the millenials.

He also says baby booomers are the investers, and their children the Millenials are the consumers. And by 2030 everything will be rosy. Is he basically saying the boomers will die off, and leave the millenials to inherit their fortune? Is that our only saving grace?

Then he jumps into shale oil, and Russian Military strategy.
 
I thought Millenials are largely in debt, and under employed, still living at home consume, more only by racking up more debt. They failed to compete in STEM with the Hindus, and East Asians. I hear the Gen Z is not that much better. Also there is another thread on here about the wealth gap within the millenials.

He also says baby booomers are the investers, and their children the Millenials are the consumers. And by 2030 everything will be rosy. Is he basically saying the boomers will die off, and leave the millenials to inherit their fortune? Is that our only saving grace?

Then he jumps into shale oil, and Russian Military strategy.

I think he says that compared to the rest of the world the US isnt as fucked up, China will implode demographically, just like Japan and Europe isnt doing much better.

China would need to start importing SEAs in masse, but due to the sheer size of their country, its doubtful that it will be possible.
 
Zeihan took down the Chinese financial system in his book four years ago. More people should listen to former US State Department geopolitical analysts who went off to do their own thing for $40 G's a pop to talk about this shit. Chickens coming home to roost. US should apply more pressure lolz, cut right to the heart of the legitimacy of the regime.

A mere partial excerpt for those actually interested, and even then it's pretty sizeable.


@JonesBones @Madmick @sub_thug

EDIT: quote-boxed to reduce scale of characters on page.

Very interdasting article.

Couple of comments

Before the article even got there I was struck by how similar this was to Japan. Forced savings at low interest rates used to support non performing loans that held up the economy.

While the impact is similar to sub prime, that was not the goal of sub prime. Sub prime failed becuase it was packaged up to be safer than govt debt and then traded throughout the economy via mutualization. The fact is the gaurentees were useless and the it fueled a bubble in real estate that then came crashing down. The objective was never full employment.

Final point is that the article does not really address is the mountain of real foreign financial assets that China has offsetting all this debt. It’s massive trade surplus has allowed it to invest in US government debt and non government investments (including the list of investments that this article called crazy with out really explaining it). China on balance has been producing more than it has been consuming and as such it has to be able to absorb some of the losses (ie spending on fake / no value investments to prop up employment) from these excesses.
 
Did not get to read whole article, but I want to touch on the first point about China's own divisiveness. It is no worse than what Murka has. Murka is too pretty fragmented. Its much more diverse, and now even more diverse with the antifa, SJW, Liberal, LGBTQ movement. China does not even have an antifa, SJW, Liberal, LGBTQ issue. Politics in Murka is much more cliquish.

Edit, just read rest of it.

So China subsidizes its economy. Well its communism. That is basically what communism is. USA though also subsidizes much of economy. We subsidize agriculture. I think you can consider the bailouts to be a subsidy. We subsidize illegal immigrants (if you broaden your definition), etc, etc.

It’s not communism, it’s very similar to what Japan was doing. It has similarities to much of SEA. Businesses held up by loans, leading to zombie banks.
 
Id really like to see a similar breakdown for other countries.
The ageing population is synonymous with wealth, can't think of a good country that doesn't have it.

Except I would guess that China’s gdp per capita level is much below the point where this demographic reality stated kicking in for western countries. They are no where near Germany in wealth per capita but with the same demographic issues, yikes.
 
Rural peasant uprising GET!



Or they may need to make do with their lover, their right hand...
"The Chinese Pussy Wars" will be mistaken for some for something else.
 
Very interdasting article.

Couple of comments

Before the article even got there I was struck by how similar this was to Japan. Forced savings at low interest rates used to support non performing loans that held up the economy.

While the impact is similar to sub prime, that was not the goal of sub prime. Sub prime failed becuase it was packaged up to be safer than govt debt and then traded throughout the economy via mutualization. The fact is the gaurentees were useless and the it fueled a bubble in real estate that then came crashing down. The objective was never full employment.

Final point is that the article does not really address is the mountain of real foreign financial assets that China has offsetting all this debt. It’s massive trade surplus has allowed it to invest in US government debt and non government investments (including the list of investments that this article called crazy with out really explaining it). China on balance has been producing more than it has been consuming and as such it has to be able to absorb some of the losses (ie spending on fake / no value investments to prop up employment) from these excesses.

Your posts on economics >>>

I'm far more of a STEM guy (and student), I find econ a hell of a lot more challenging than bio-chem even as a passing interest.
s0208.gif
The fact that it isn't a science and doesn't adhere to the same framework is most maddening. A similar impact to subprime is what I took him to mean by it.

The excerpt actually wasn't from an article, but an entire book with an extensive section on China that casts an extremely skeptical view of it as an inevitable superpower digging into not just economics but geography and demography. It was released in 2014. He got some wrong, and a lot correct but most of it is focused on how America came to obtain its current position and why it will maintain it. There was a follow up The Absent Superpower released in 2016.

51nDDbAZNpL._SX332_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
 
One such trend is furniture made of American Black Walnut lumber. Of course, Walnut trees grow around the world but none are as desirable for their color and characteristics as those grown in the United States. If China wants a piece of this trend they have no choice but to buy US logs on the open, globally priced market, ship them across the world to China, process them (which involves three or four intermediary steps), turn them into furniture and ship them back across the globe where they can be sold to the US market.

You forget that China is the king of improvisations. Don't be surprised if you find that your Made-in-China walnut furniture is actually a suar/acacia wood in disguise.
 
Your posts on economics >>>

I'm far more of a STEM guy (and student), I find econ a hell of a lot more challenging than bio-chem even as a passing interest.
s0208.gif
The fact that it isn't a science and doesn't adhere to the same framework is most maddening. A similar impact to subprime is what I took him to mean by it.

The excerpt actually wasn't from an article, but an entire book with an extensive section on China that casts an extremely skeptical view of it as an inevitable superpower digging into not just economics but geography and demography. It was released in 2014. He got some wrong, and a lot correct but most of it is focused on how America came to obtain its current position and why it will maintain it. There was a follow up The Absent Superpower released in 2016.

51nDDbAZNpL._SX332_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

LOL I’ll assume the >>>>>> to mean a good thing about my economic posts.

Yeah economics can’t be a science like stem, and the biggest error economics makes is when it dives into model and formulas and ends up blurring that fact. Economics is about how people USE resources, so at the end of the day it’s a social science and deeply intertwined with politics and psychology.

Zeihan is an interesting dude, seems like he is pretty good at describing the present but some of his predictions seems kinda “static”, like results of unalterable demographic dominos falling down. Systems have a way of bending before the worst happens.
 
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