Economy The U.S-China Trade War: China said it would impose retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. goods

[SaiWa]

They are a top 5 nation mainly due to its massive population, a massive population that is also heading towards demographic implosion.

In a per capita basis China is still pretty fucked up and its massive corporate debt is going to blow up in the short to mid term because Xi is preventing its correction for political reasons.

yes well the population problem is shared amongst several nations. They'll have to figure that out on their own.

ok so their GDP growth rate will drop from a 6-7 to 4.5-5.5 at most. It's not the end of the world. They'll be just fine.

 

[Rod1]

yes well the population problem is shared amongst several nations. They'll have to figure that out on their own.

Usually among post-industrial nations with pretty advanced governments and financial systems. Not third world developing nations.

ok so their GDP growth rate will drop from a 6-7 to 4.5-5.5 at most. It's not the end of the world. They'll be just fine

Say that to all the Chinese looking for retirement and seeing their savings vaporizing since they are mostly invested in Chinese corporate debt.

They will enter a strong correction, thats beyond merely slowing down, with Xi Jinping stupidly confronting Trump instead of relenting that tipping point can be closer than you believe.

 

[SaiWa]

Is he is as popular as you say then why can China hold elections he will win them by a large margin isnt?

Really?

Things that Mexico has that China doesnt.

-Floating, stable currency.
-Democracy.
-Freedom of the press.
-Freedom of movement.
-Constitutional rights.
-Young population.
-Fertility rates around replacement levels.
-Tolerable pollution levels.
-Healthy corporate debt.

Also Mexico receives around 32 millions international tourists arrivals every year, thats around 25% of its entire population coming in and out of the country every year.

China on the other hand receives roughly 50 million tourists thats around 4% of its population.

So yeah, the future is far more brighter in Mexico than China, by a longshot.

Pretty sure the term limit was voted in their congress and it passed 2,958-2 with 3 abstainment.

And using tourist numbers as a percentage to the population of the host nation is something I've never heard as a gauge.

Did you know 21% of the world's international tourism spending comes from China. China is the world's top spender in international tourism. So yeah they get plenty of tourism but they can also afford to visit other countries en masse as well. So yeah... they're doing alright no matter how hard you are trying to paint them badly...

 

[Gunny]

Be as it may it had the effect of actually rooting out corruption as well. And this is from first hand accounts with people I know that live in China. The crackdowns and enforcements were legit and illegal shit such as prostitution (once brazenly out in the open) were forced to go underground. This is what Xi is known for by the common Chinese people and that's why he's respected.

Prostitution in China doesn’t appear that far underground to me. Hotel concierges regularly offer to send hookers to my room. Business secure the services of prostitutes for visiting prospective customers - even putting multiple girls on display to select from. If only I wasn’t married (and was into Asian women)...

 

[SaiWa]

Prostitution in China doesn’t appear that far underground to me. Hotel concierges regularly offer to send hookers to my room. Business secure the services of prostitutes for visiting prospective customers - even putting multiple girls on display to select from. If only I wasn’t married (and was into Asian women)...

I am positively sure that hotel isn't advertising these services out which wasn't the case several years ago...

 

[Gunny]

yes well the population problem is shared amongst several nations. They'll have to figure that out on their own.

ok so their GDP growth rate will drop from a 6-7 to 4.5-5.5 at most. It's not the end of the world. They'll be just fine.

GDP isn’t a valid measure of China’s economic health anyhow BTW. The govt will throw whatever money they need at whatever projects they need to hit their growth targets. I’ve witnessed these projects first hand and there are true absurdities in that system. This all reduces to a question of how big they inflate the debt bomb and whether they’ll be able to disarm it before it explodes.

 

[Gunny]

Prostitution in China doesn’t appear that far underground to me. Hotel concierges regularly offer to send hookers to my room. Business secure the services of prostitutes for visiting prospective customers - even putting multiple girls on display to select from. If only I wasn’t married (and was into Asian women)...

Perhaps that’s true of the hotels. The line up of girls in the trade shows is right there on public display though.

 

[Rod1]

Pretty sure the term limit was voted in their congress and it passed 2,958-2 with 3 abstainment.

Right, we all know that the "people's republics" are always this democractic, their leaders are just loved so much that there is no dissent.

And using tourist numbers as a percentage to the population of the host nation is something I've never heard as a gauge.

Because it shows how much of the country is desirable to visit.

Did you know 21% of the world's international tourism spending comes from China. China is the world's top spender in international tourism. So yeah they get plenty of tourism but they can also afford to visit other countries en masse as well. So yeah... they're doing alright no matter how hard you are trying to paint them badly...

That its quite telling TBH, because it shows that Chinese tourists dont even like China.

And i never said they were doing badly, they are simply still a third world country. China big numbers are mainly a byproduct of its massive population, and they will remain a third world country until they achieve the market and political reforms necessary.

 

[SaiWa]

Right, we all know that the "people's republics" are always this democractic, their leaders are just loved so much that there is no dissent.

Because it shows how much of the country is desirable to visit.

That its quite telling TBH, because it shows that Chinese tourists dont even like China.

And i never said they were doing badly, they are simply still a third world country. China big numbers are mainly a byproduct of its massive population, and they will remain a third world country until they achieve the market and political reforms necessary.

Not my country's voting rules so I have no say... Hell if I had an actual say in my own country's voting system I'd vote to abolish the electoral college system but that's a story for another thread.

The percentage of visitors to population of the host country is pure statistical gibberish. I guess Switzerland with its annual 20 million tourists compared to 8 million citizens are godlike numbers yes? As an engineer who works with numbers I call pure BS on this.

21% of the international tourism business doesn't tell anything beyond the fact that Chinese people love to travel and learn about the world outside of their country. More people should be doing this. Spinning it around and saying Chinese people don't even like to visit their own country is silly because the stats don't prove that at all.

If you want to define China as a third world country then go ahead. I think they are in between 1st and 2nd. Not completely communist anymore but obviously not 1st world. The terms first, second and third world countries are a bit outdated in this day and age (separating democracies from communists and developing countries isn't really necessary anymore). Is China still developing? Yes but I believe it is also enter post-developing stage. It's not 3rd world IMO and Ive seen people describe it as a middle-income country.. not sure if that's an accurate term but its better than 3rd world to me.

 

[Rod1]

Not my country's voting rules so I have no say... Hell if I had an actual say in my own country's voting system I'd vote to abolish the electoral college system but that's a story for another thread.

2000 people deciding the future of 1300 million is not a democracy, electoral college may not be perfect but they are still elected by the people.

The percentage of visitors to population of the host country is pure statistical gibberish. I guess Switzerland with its annual 20 million tourists compared to 8 million citizens are godlike numbers yes? As an engineer who works with numbers I call pure BS on this.

I never said its a definitive number, Switzerland does gets a lot of visits but mainly from its neighbours. If you want a defintive number to compare then its best to simply see the size of tourism compared to the size of the population as a whole, dollars per capita.

21% of the international tourism business doesn't tell anything beyond the fact that Chinese people love to travel and learn about the world outside of their country. More people should be doing this. Spinning it around and saying Chinese people don't even like to visit their own country is silly because the stats don't prove that at all.

They love to travel, yet despite living in a massive country with 1300 million people and 3.7 million square miles they decide to pay premium dollars to go and vacation elsewhere but China? Seems legit.

Which stats would prove it? the amount of domestic vs international tourism spending by the Chinese?

If you want to define China as a third world country then go ahead. I think they are in between 1st and 2nd. Not completely communist anymore but obviously not 1st world. The terms first, second and third world countries are a bit outdated in this day and age (separating democracies from communists and developing countries isn't really necessary anymore). Is China still developing? Yes but I believe it is also enter post-developing stage. It's not 3rd world IMO and Ive seen people describe it as a middle-income country.. not sure if that's an accurate term but its better than 3rd world to me.

By PPP per capita, China is smack right in the middle of third worldness at roughly 16,000 which is the world average (and below Mexico).

If we go by nominal GDP per capita, its even lower at roughly 8,500 which again, is below Mexico.

And im not even going to go towards things like freedom and the such, because China is abyssmal in that sense. So i dont get how you even think China is not a third world country.

Sure, some amazing cities are in China, but these are just islands of wealth in a sea of poverty and since China doesnt has complete freedom of movement (unlike most latin american nations) you dont see the poor flocking to the cities because they fucking cant.

 

[TemujinKhan]

There seems to be this notion here that China was some sort of paradise before the CCP showed up.

The disbandment of their central government was what sent China from wealthy nation to shithole status. A dozen western nations including the United States, Britain, France, Japan etc teamed up in an unprovoked attack, forcing opium on the population. Btw your precious US were some of the biggest Opium dealers at the time in China. Pretty fucked up if you think about it, yet you call THEM savages, lol.

'China was not only a major power in the East under the Qing but also a wealthy country and a major exporter of luxury goods prior to the Opium Wars.'
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Opium-Wars

From the first Opium War in 1842 until roughly 1980s China was a massive shithole in every way imaginable, the CCP has only had control of China since the 1950s.

The CCP did many reprehensible things but to blame them solely for Chinas decline while ignoring the fact that it was your precious western nations who you deem morally superior, it was these nations that attacked a sovereign nation because they wouldn't purchase your illegal narcotics.

So please spare the me the self righteous western bullshit. The truth is that 99% of westerners don't even know about these events and never will. This is what happens when people get 99% of their information from YT channels like China Uncensored.

So no fucking wonder that peasants in China in the 1900s were more willing to ally with Mao rather than the US led Nationalists. Gee I wonder why they would be adverse to western systems of government, why they would view Chiang as a western puppet.

I mean its not like the west colonized China, and a forced Opium trade, its not like this is what led to the disbandment of their central government while a drug addicted population had all their wealth and treasures stolen. Its not like this single event led to a weakening of the nation, opening the doors for Japanese invasion and over a century of famine, war and desolation. Its not like that actually fucking happened. Oh yeah, it did. So STFU once again and cut the morality crap, I'm not buying it. I give your culture and nations absolutely zero moral high ground, in fact I give them negative high ground.

'In 1839, England went to war with China because it was upset that Chinese officials had shut down its drug trafficking racket and confiscated its dope.

Stating the historical record so plainly is shocking — but it’s true, and the consequences of that act are still being felt today.'

Starting in in the mid-1700s, the British began trading opium grown in India in exchange for silver from Chinese merchants. Opium — an addictive drug that today is refined into heroin — was illegal in England, but was used in Chinese traditional medicine.

However, recreational use was illegal and not widespread. That changed as the British began shipping in tons of the drug using a combination of commercial loopholes and outright smuggling to get around the ban.

Chinese officials taking their own cut abetted the practice. American ships carrying Turkish-grown opium joined in the narcotics bonanza in the early 1800s. Consumption of opium in China skyrocketed, as did profits.

The Daoguang Emperor became alarmed by the millions of drug addicts — and the flow of silver leaving China. As is often the case, the actions of a stubborn idealist brought the conflict to a head. In 1839 the newly appointed Imperial Commissioner Lin Zexu instituted laws banning opium throughout China.

He arrested 1,700 dealers, and seized the crates of the drug already in Chinese harbors and even on ships at sea. He then had them all destroyed. That amounted to 2.6 million pounds of opium thrown into the ocean. Lin even wrote a poem apologizing to the sea gods for the pollution.

Angry British traders got the British government to promise compensation for the lost drugs, but the treasury couldn’t afford it. War would resolve the debt.

But the first shots were fired when the Chinese objected to the British attacking one of their own merchant ships.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-war-made-asia-how-the-opium-war-crushed-china-19476

 

[TemujinKhan]

I love these convos, bruv.

There's no real fundamental disagreement here and I wouldn't dispute it as a major driver for what brought about Euro exceptionalism but ofc I don't really believe in exceptionalism much less supremacist ideology and narratives. It is exceptional that what could largely be originally described as Northwestern European culture managed to yield such universal truths and methods though.

I respect your opinion, tbh though sometimes I see the rhetoric here and feel like I'm watching the WWE instead of seeing any actual engagement or discussion thats balanced in anyway.

Its mostly "China just lost 2000 jobs, fuck yea, winning". I don't see the productivity in actively rooting for such things, especially when real people are being affected and livelihoods being lost in all this.

My fear is, that I do notice an increasing concerted effort recently in western media with the Anti-China sentiment. Its fairly widespread at this point. And its fairly apolitical and bipartisan, CNN is just as likely to villainize China as Fox News. This clues me to a deeper reason as to why all of a sudden ant-china propanganda is being ramped up.

Many feel that the US and China are spiraling towards Thucydides trap. Its obvious to me that a good percentage of Americans want somethings "done' about China, the status quo cannot continue. I'm just saying be careful what you wish for, if you seek conflict or encourage conflict, whether its economic or military, if you villainize, if you fall into the trap. Then you're part of the problem, things tend to escalate, not deescalate. And right now things are escalating, stances being hardened on both sides. If its conflict and destruction that you seek then you are contributing to that result.

As for European exceptionalism, I don't believe in superiority/inferiority paradigms so that wasn't my intent. I only refer to that period of scientific discovery and inventions in Europe. I'm not sure about the 'universal truths' part though, truths about science sure I give them that.

 

[AboFatima]

some experts believe that it is better to get things from China, because it is more economical, the American citizen could spend his money on other American industries such as entertainment. Hence, issuing strict laws against Chinese products will affect the American individuals

 

[Rod1]

There seems to be this notion here that China was some sort of paradise before the CCP showed up.

The disbandment of their central government was what sent China from wealthy nation to shithole status. A dozen western nations including the United States, Britain, France, Japan etc teamed up in an unprovoked attack, forcing opium on the population. Btw your precious US were some of the biggest Opium dealers at the time in China. Pretty fucked up if you think about it, yet you call THEM savages, lol.

No, there is no such notion.

You however seem to have this notion that only the Chinese were victims of British aggression, the British fucked virtually the entire world.

Many feel that the US and China are spiraling towards Thucydides trap. Its obvious to me that a good percentage of Americans want somethings "done' about China, the status quo cannot continue. I'm just saying be careful what you wish for, if you seek conflict or encourage conflict, whether its economic or military, if you villainize, if you fall into the trap. Then you're part of the problem, things tend to escalate, not deescalate. And right now things are escalating, stances being hardened on both sides. If its conflict and destruction that you seek then you are contributing to that result.

No, they are not.

And the CCP is a villain, no democratic government would need to suppress the truth, create a "citizen score" or a massive surveillance system if they werent villains.

You had your argument in the 50s, how does that applies to the coming 2020s? are Chinese simply that "stupid and inferior" that they cant handle democracy and social freedoms or is the CCP just an asshole party?

 

[TemujinKhan]

No, there is no such notion.

You however seem to have this notion that only the Chinese were victims of British aggression, the British fucked virtually the entire world.

No, they are not.

And the CCP is a villain, no democratic government would need to suppress the truth, create a "citizen score" or a massive surveillance system if they werent villains.

You had your argument in the 50s, how does that applies to the coming 2020s? are Chinese simply that "stupid and inferior" that they cant handle democracy and social freedoms or is the CCP just an asshole party?

Democracies suppress the truth all the time. They just have less of a need to do it as much as Communist nations because in general civilian populations like the US are more indoctrinated by mass media. Modern day Americans are probably the most heavily indoctrinated civilian populations in world history, nothing comes close.

As for surveillance, lol every street corner in the UK basically has video cameras that allow government access. Never heard of the Snowden leaks?

Once again Rod, I give western nations zero, absolutely zero moral high ground in terms of almost every metric. So we're basically speaking to each other in a way that neither can really convince the other since our paradigms are so different. Its like a flat earther debating with a person who believes the earth is round, its gonna get nowhere.

Also Rod, why would they want to adopt the governmental systems of a people who tried to use chemical warfare on them, who tried to make their entire population into worthless addicts?

 

[Rod1]

Democracies suppress the truth all the time. They just have less of a need to do it as much as Communist nations because in general civilian populations like the US are more indoctrinated by mass media. Modern day Americans are probably the most heavily indoctrinated civilian populations in world history, nothing comes close.

LOL what a bunch of non-sense.

I can google about Kent State shootings, i can go on the street and can talk about Kent State shooting, i can write a blog about Kent State shootings, etc, etc.

Try doing the same in China with Tiananmen, i dare you, i double dare you.

As for surveillance, lol every street corner in the UK basically has video cameras that allow government access. Never heard of the Snowden leaks?

Fair enough, citizen score on the other hand.

Once again Rod, I give western nations zero, absolutely zero moral high ground in terms of almost every metric. So we're basically speaking to each other in a way that neither can really convince the other since our paradigms are so different. Its like a flat earther debating with a person who believes the earth is round, its gonna get nowhere.

I would agree with you when it comes to foreign policy, when it comes to domestic policy, not a fucking chance.

Also Rod, why would they want to adopt the governmental systems of a people who tried to use chemical warfare on them, who tried to make their entire population into worthless addicts?

I dont know, why dont you ask the Taiwanese? they seem to be pretty fucking happy with democracy.

Why dont you ask the HongKongese how things are now much better with mainland China stomping all over their rights and freedoms over being a British colony?

 

[TemujinKhan]

LOL what a bunch of non-sense.

I can google about Kent State shootings, i can go on the street and can talk about Kent State shooting, i can write a blog about Kent State shootings, etc, etc.

Try doing the same in China with Tiananmen, i dare you, i double dare you.

Thats the point Rod, in places like China they have to use hamfisted methods to hide the truth whereas in the west, theres no need to hide the truth because tbh nobody cares and people are either too busy, apathetic or drowned in information, the civilians mostly end up controlling themselves.

You can also google the Gulf of Tonkin incident yet most Americans won't know about and think Vietnam was started just to stop communism. You can also google the fact that Iraq didn't have WMDs, but guess what it didn't matter because the news said they had WMDs, most Americans believed it and boom: 100s of thousands dead years later. And tbh, I still don't think the majority of Americans/Westerners know that Iraq didn't have WMDs, at least most of the ones I've talked to were unaware of it.

You can also google the Marshall Islands tragedy or all the funded rebellions by the US in South America. But guess what, nobody is going to do shit. The government does what it wants, when it wants and nobody can or will do jack shit because ethier:

-They simply don't know
-They are willfully ignorant
-Their brains ignore such information as conspiracies or they simply ignore it altogether because they have been indoctrinated to believe they are the good guys, people seek consistency to their beliefs over all else. Thats how the mind works, its an irrational beast.
-They don't want to be socially ostracized by appearing unpatriotic or appearing to be a crazy person.

It not like other nations like China doesn't want that level of indoctrination. I'm sure nations like China and Russia would love that level of indoctrination of their populations instead of resorting to hamfisted methods, censorship and obvious propaganda. The US is like the Jon Jones of propaganda and indoctrination, they are on the next level, better techniques, more training, western media dominates globally. The Chinese/Russians are like some regional circuit fighters compared to the US when it comes to this stuff, when you see Chinese/Russian propaganda its so obvious, its so primitive in design. Whereas western propaganda is sooo fucking good you won't even know you're watching propaganda, its just more entertaining and believable shit.

This documentary shows how this stuff was built up like a science, much of the work of Edward Bernays was critical in coming up with the concepts.

I dont know, why dont you ask the Taiwanese? they seem to be pretty fucking happy with democracy.

Why dont you ask the HongKongese how things are now much better with mainland China stomping all over their rights and freedoms over being a British colony?

Well I have actually spoken to both and tbh their views on it were alot more nuanced than you might be led to believe.

Also, those nations had head starts on China, they didn't have sanctions placed on them, they weren't shut out of global trade and they had heavy investments from western nations with tons of capital.

Also, Taiwan currently has foreign military bases on their soil and HK did as well. So you see, the price of "Democracy'' is not free. China is a 100% sovereign nation, they would be giving up part of their sovereignty at the price of a better economy if the Nationalists won. I'm sure Americans would be adverse to having foreign military bases on their soil. Sometimes the price of sovereignty is high, sometimes it leaves you in isolation and you grow at a slower rate. But I do believe its worth it. How would you feel about having a Chinese military base in Mexico if it could raise the economy? Worth it?

Btw: Last post you responded to I used some harsh language and it wasn't directed at you, I was adressing the thread as a whole. You've always had respectful engagements and replies.

 

[NoDak]

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...-likely-cost-china-700-000-jobs-jpmorgan-says

The tariff battle with the U.S. will probably cost China 700,000 jobs, or more in the event of further escalation.

The job losses would come if the U.S. imposes 25 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese exports and China retaliates by devaluing its currency by 5 percent and adding to levies on U.S. goods, according to economists led by Haibin Zhu at JPMorgan Chase & Co. If China doesn’t retaliate at all, 3 million people could lose their jobs, they wrote in a research note Tuesday.

The study highlights the more profound impacts of the tariff battle on the world’s second largest economy, which is grappling with a slowing pace of growth and a massive debt pile. Things may get even worse: if the U.S. imposes 25 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates with the levies already announced, the measures will mean 5.5 million lost jobs and 1.3 percentage points cut off gross domestic product growth.

"If the U.S. further escalates the tariff war, the impact on China will be larger," they wrote in the note. While the overall impact is still manageable, the rising unemployment could become a major policy concern, they wrote. "If unemployment increases sharply, it will change the policy reaction function and the risk is biased towards bolstered policy easing."

A cheaper yuan would help the economy weather such shocks. In a worst-case scenario in which more than 5 million jobs are at risk, choosing to devalue the currency by around 12 percent in 2019 compared to 2018 would offset the effect on the GDP and narrow the net job losses to 0.9 million, according to the analysts.

However, that would lead to $332 billion in capital outflows, burning more than a tenth of the nation’s foreign exchange reserves, they calculated. That would be a situation that policymakers may want to avoid after the experience of massive capital flight caused by a shock devaluation in 2015.

 

[MicroBrew]

2000 people deciding the future of 1300 million is not a democracy, electoral college may not be perfect but they are still elected by the people.



I never said its a definitive number, Switzerland does gets a lot of visits but mainly from its neighbours. If you want a defintive number to compare then its best to simply see the size of tourism compared to the size of the population as a whole, dollars per capita.



They love to travel, yet despite living in a massive country with 1300 million people and 3.7 million square miles they decide to pay premium dollars to go and vacation elsewhere but China? Seems legit.

Which stats would prove it? the amount of domestic vs international tourism spending by the Chinese?



By PPP per capita, China is smack right in the middle of third worldness at roughly 16,000 which is the world average (and below Mexico).

If we go by nominal GDP per capita, its even lower at roughly 8,500 which again, is below Mexico.

And im not even going to go towards things like freedom and the such, because China is abyssmal in that sense. So i dont get how you even think China is not a third world country.

Sure, some amazing cities are in China, but these are just islands of wealth in a sea of poverty and since China doesnt has complete freedom of movement (unlike most latin american nations) you dont see the poor flocking to the cities because they fucking cant.

I think the reason some people argue that China is not a 3rd world country is because it has the 2nd largest economy, plenty of manufacturing and cities that look modern and clean. But all this belies the vast poor rural areas. I wouldn't call them 3rd world but then i wouldn't call them 1st world either.

Dubai is, on the surface a 1st world city-state, but in reality it is very much 3rd world. So shiny bables and fancy looking buildings doesn't make a place 1st world. Any Swiss city doesn't look as modern as Dubai (on the surface) but they are definitely 1st world.

 

[Rod1]

I think the reason some people argue that China is not a 3rd world country is because it has the 2nd largest economy, plenty of manufacturing and cities that look modern and clean. But all this belies the vast poor rural areas. I wouldn't call them 3rd world but then i wouldn't call them 1st world either. Dubai is, on the surface a 1st world city-state, but in reality it is very much 3rd world.

Pretty much every developing third world country is like that, just ignore the poor and suddenly the country doesnt looks as poor.

China is the second largest economy on the virtue of its massive population, as i said, if we measure China on a per capita basis, its right in the middle when it comes to the world and miles away from first world status.