The U.S-China Trade War Mega-Thread

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Arkain2K, Aug 9, 2018.

  1. Arkain2K

    Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Chinese leadership is facing a rare backlash for its handling of the US trade dispute
    REUTERS | August 9, 2018​
    • Some critics saying that an overly nationalistic Chinese stance may have hardened the US position.
    • President Xi Jinping still has a firm grip on power, but an unusual surge of criticism about economic policy and how the government has handled the trade war has revealed rare cracks in the ruling Communist Party.
    • There have been signs of a shift in China's messaging.

     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2018
  2. Cubo de Sangre

    Cubo de Sangre Steel Belt

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    My gas and electricity is up. Other than that fuck China. Hoorah.
     
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  3. Rematch

    Rematch Female oil checking = AWESOMENESS!!!!!

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    Yep, that's right. Winning.
     
  4. NoDak

    NoDak #Privileged

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    We can double-up, I guess.

    Like the sub-prime mortgage crisis... in every economic sector.



    :D
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2018
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  5. NoDak

    NoDak #Privileged

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    Zeihan took down the Chinese financial system in his book four years ago. More people should listen to former US State Department geopolitical analysts who went off to do their own thing for $40 G's a pop to talk about this shit. Chickens coming home to roost. US should apply more pressure lolz, cut right to the heart of the legitimacy of the regime.

    A mere partial excerpt for those actually interested, and even then it's pretty sizeable.


    @JonesBones @Madmick @sub_thug

    EDIT: quote-boxed to reduce scale of characters on page.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2018
  6. kenetics

    kenetics Black Belt

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  7. Makani

    Makani Ain't Nobody Ever Been Free

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    Good read, and a reminder that focusing too much on that magical growth % can be pretty hazardous. It's easy to close in on double-digits if you're willing to take a lot of risks and destabilize your future economy. Give me a nice steady 3.5% any day.
     
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  8. NoDak

    NoDak #Privileged

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    But I mean hey, they've come along way through writ large currency manipulation, overbuilding, subsidization, product dumping, lack of reciprocity, forced technology transfers and the state-directed industrialized effort for the outright theft of intellectual property, trade secrets and sensitive US military data that both violate WTO agreements and/or work to severely undermine American spawned industries critical to its present and future economic growth, national security and capacity for innovation.
     
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  9. loyalyolayal

    loyalyolayal Gold Belt

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    I have a feeling that powerful people in the communist party will use this as an excuse to remove Xi because he just made hinself king.
     
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  10. NoDak

    NoDak #Privileged

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    It's viable given the article, but I tend to believe the CCP had just as much to do with putting him in that position because the reforms China requires are inevitably going to bring a lot of economic slow down and tangible squeeze on the country. It's going to require strongarm leadership over an extended period of time and removing him at this juncture would really only throw things into disarray.

    The National People's Congress approved scraping term limits by a vote of 2,958 to 2. Yes, two; three others abstained. He's also purged a great number of political adversaries under the guise of a massive, ruthless anti-corruption campaign since taking over in 2013. President is really only the third most powerful title in the country, he already holds the other two as General Secretary of the CCP and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

    I dunno what the intended reply here was, but in any case that original scroll of text was far too long on this format and it has been rectified. To make up for it, I've attached an entirely random photo of my footprint.

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. NoDak

    NoDak #Privileged

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  12. NoDak

    NoDak #Privileged

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    'Leave Immediately!': China Sent 6 Warnings To A US Navy Plane, But The US Didn't Back Down

    Chinese forces deployed to the hotly contested South China Sea ordered a US Navy reconnaissance aircraft to "leave immediately" six times Friday, but the pilot stayed the course, refusing to back down.

    A US Navy P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance plane flew past China's garrisons in the Spratly Islands, giving CNN reporters aboard the aircraft a view of Chinese militarization in the region.

    Flying over Chinese strongholds on Mischief Reef, Johnson Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, and Subi Reef, CNN spotted "large radar installations, power plants, and runways sturdy enough to carry large military aircraft." At one outpost, onboard sensors detected 86 vessels, including Chinese Coast Guard ships, which China has been known to use to strong-arm countries with competing claims in the South China Sea.

    Lt. Lauren Callen, who led the US Navy crew, said it was "surprising to see airports in the middle of the ocean."

    The Chinese stationed in the area were not exactly kind hosts to the uninvited guests.

    Warning the aircraft that it was in Chinese territory — an argument an international arbitration tribunal ruled against two years ago — the Chinese military ordered the US Navy plane to "leave immediately and keep out to avoid any misunderstanding."

    Six warnings were issued, according to CNN, and the US Navy responded the same every time.


    @ShinkanPo
     
  13. Yorkist

    Yorkist Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Trump cucking China hard.
     
  14. NoDak

    NoDak #Privileged

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    [​IMG]

    It still boggles the mind he felt the need to personally leap into the fray to save ZTE after his own damn Administration was about to put them out of business. That was some unprecedented shit, and particularly given he otherwise actually has been harsh on China.

    He probably doesn't even know what the fuck is going on. Whatever, it doesn't matter. A lot of these problems were inevitable for China but the trade war is likely hurting them more than people want to admit. The stock market just lost it's place as world's second largest, there's reports of tension within the CCP (this isn't the first) and the state media is acting very, very strangely. I want to enact the next round on $200 billion worth to see what happens.

    I actually have a fair degree of trust in Trump's USTR Robert Lighthizer - not Mattis level trust mind - and (but?) there's also an absolute radical anti-Chinese economic advisor Peter Navarro in there (yes, he's an economist thankfully). A trade war with China is almost desirable for all the shit they pull IF we aren't simultaneously flinging shit at the European Union, Canada and Mexico.
     
  15. Gunny

    Gunny Silver Belt

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    Good excerpt from Zeihan there. This passage in particular resonated with me...


    I've previously described the kind of dumping we see in the furniture industry including a certain kind of particularity absurd scenario. You see, furniture is a fashion industry where tastes in terms of fabrics, wood types, finishes, etc. go in and out of style all the time. China can manage the fabric side of this equation fairly easily but wood type trends are a harder wave to ride. Not only does China not have good domestic forests of their own, the trends can be so specific that they require trees of a given region like grapes for wine. One such trend is furniture made of American Black Walnut lumber. Of course, Walnut trees grow around the world but none are as desirable for their color and characteristics as those grown in the United States. If China wants a piece of this trend they have no choice but to buy US logs on the open, globally priced market, ship them across the world to China, process them (which involves three or four intermediary steps), turn them into furniture and ship them back across the globe where they can be sold to the US market. You would think that after such an absurd chain of possession that the labor advantage would be essentially neutralized and that the Chinese price would be on par with our own but that is never the case. Time and time again, I see Chinese (it actually happens all across Asia) merchandise made of American grown lumber selling for less than the cost of the raw materials themselves.

    Of course, China never admits that they're subsidizing their exports as that would be a clear WTO violation, drawing corrective measures. That in mind I've always assumed that these manufacturers are getting something like low/no interest loans that may, for all intents and purposes, never have to be repaid provided the manufacturer is bringing requisite levels of employment to their districts along with the implied and induced economy that that employment represents (factors we in the west have long undervalued.) Now this is an extremely goofy scenario that makes no sense on it's own. Buying US materials, turning them into finished merchandise and selling back to the US at less than cost does not help China in any way. But it can be understood as something like the tiny percentage of shrinkage in a scheme that is so vast and comprehensive that the several hundred manufacturers using their subsidies in this manner are overlooked by the central economic planners who have much bigger fish to fry. I've seen that broader agenda manifest in dozens of other Chinese enterprises I've interacted with, stories I'll have to save for future posts...
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2018
  16. Amerikuracana

    Amerikuracana Titanium Belt

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    We moved them from 36th, to first or 2nd.. they don't want the gravy train to end. Americans all wanted it to end, until the media went nuts; now we have to stop playing smart because Donald Trump is the one who FINALLY started things going in the right direction.
     
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  17. NoDak

    NoDak #Privileged

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    That's top notch, awesome post.

     
  18. MadSquabbles500

    MadSquabbles500 Gold Belt

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    There is already two threads on this article
     
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  19. ShinkanPo

    ShinkanPo 風 林 火 山

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    No wonder there is backla againts Mr.Xi and Wang Challenging a Super Power militarily is not good for business, infact its stupid.

    Its the Chinese's fault that the South China sea is militarized and it is bringing the entire region into conflict with other western powers.


    The Philippines signed a deal with the USA in 2016 the Enhance deffense agreement in response to Chinese expansion package in the SCS the agreement will allow more US war equipment and personel to use existing Philippine military bases and expand other bases to accomodate larger warships to stay on a semi permanent basis this is short of opening another US offshore base in the region.

    There are rumors that Vietnam,Indonesia and even Taiwan wants to enter a similar agreement amidst Chinese hostilities


    Had the Chinese had shut up about those Islands I dont think the USA and other countries would not have been motivated in increasing their presence in the region.
     
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  20. MadSquabbles500

    MadSquabbles500 Gold Belt

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    Did not get to read whole article, but I want to touch on the first point about China's own divisiveness. It is no worse than what Murka has. Murka is too pretty fragmented. Its much more diverse, and now even more diverse with the antifa, SJW, Liberal, LGBTQ movement. China does not even have an antifa, SJW, Liberal, LGBTQ issue. Politics in Murka is much more cliquish.

    Edit, just read rest of it.

    So China subsidizes its economy. Well its communism. That is basically what communism is. USA though also subsidizes much of economy. We subsidize agriculture. I think you can consider the bailouts to be a subsidy. We subsidize illegal immigrants (if you broaden your definition), etc, etc.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2018

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