The Ponies Thread (part 2)

t6p said:
Geez, I've been looking at this race for the past hour and it feels like a nightmare to cap. Looks very competitive on paper, at least to me. I'm just pretty much going with the numbers and playing the following small:

Exacta box: #2 Hofburg, #5 Core Beliefs
Trifecta box: #2 Hofburg, #5 Core Beliefs, #7 Mr. Freeze
Superfecta box: #2 Hofburg, #5 Core Beliefs, #7 Mr. Freeze, #8 McKinzie

Good luck Shark and hopefully we can both cash this!
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Other than myself, you might be the first person I've seen all day who doesn't have Instilled Regard included anywhere.

"Instilled Regard, blah, blah, blah. 15/1 is value, blah, blah, blah. Chad Brown, blah, blah, blah. Ortiz, blah, blah, blah, etc"

The sheeples out there, who are basically just parroting each other because they're all unoriginal, are dreaming if they think they were going to get anywhere close to 15/1 on a Brown/Ortiz horse who finished a "suck up" 4th in the Derby. Now they've basically all convinced themselves that he should be a 5/1 or lower horse. It's great.
 
Mind you, if I did have a rooting interest in this race it would probably be with Instilled Regard just because I was high on him earlier this year (my first Derby future play this year), and I'd feel a little bit validated with that opinion if he won today. But this system I have is completely objective, takes any personal opinion/bias out of the equation, and it's telling me that Instilled Regard is one of the least likely winners today.
 
Sharkey said:
Other than myself, you might be the first person I've seen all day who doesn't have Instilled Regard included anywhere.

"Instilled Regard, blah, blah, blah. 15/1 is value, blah, blah, blah. Chad Brown, blah, blah, blah. Ortiz, blah, blah, blah, etc"

The sheeples out there, who are basically just parroting each other because they're all unoriginal, are dreaming if they think they were going to get anywhere close to 15/1 on a Brown/Ortiz horse who finished a "suck up" 4th in the Derby. Now they've basically all convinced themselves that he should be a 5/1 or lower horse. It's great.
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Haha, funny you say that. To be honest, I had him included in my plays initially until my brain clicked into gear and I realized that horse was going to get bet way down from 15/1. I also wanted to include Bravazo since he ran so well for me in the Preakness. But, like you said, objectivity is important.
 
t6p said:
Haha, funny you say that. To be honest, I had him included in my plays initially until my brain clicked into gear and I realized that horse was going to get bet way down from 15/1. I also wanted to include Bravazo since he ran so well for me in the Preakness. But, like you said, objectivity is important.
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He's not completely without a shot (espeically if he gets some of Gronkowski's "magic" in his system). Nobody is really. Like you said, it's fairly evenly matched top to bottom as far as 10 horse fields go. All can be argued to finish somewhere in the top 3 or 4. But you can't play them all, and I certainly don't want to play a horse that everybody has seemingly landed on thinking they'll get "value" by just repeating what they've heard from someone else. Group think at it's finest, which means an underlayed horse is likely on display.

Being objective is why I started developing this formula system over a year ago even though it's gone through so many changes. I wanted my own personal biases for certain horses taken out of the equation because, like anybody who just uses subjectiveness, there were times I was betting what I "wanted" to happen rather than what I thought was going to happen. I also wanted something that looked for value in ways/places nobody else was looking, but it all started with being objective.
 
Haha. Collected just finished 4th at 2/5 in that race at Parx.
 
I'm playing the #9 Whereshetoldmetogo to W/P in this next race at Parx, the G3 Gallant Bob Stakes. I didn't do the numbers for the race, but I suspect this one would have ranked right near or even at the top if I did, and it's currently 12/1.
 
Sharkey said:
I'm playing the #9 Whereshetoldmetogo to W/P in this next race at Parx, the G3 Gallant Bob Stakes. I didn't do the numbers for the race, but I suspect this one would have ranked right near or even at the top if I did, and it's currently 12/1.
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That was funny. The horse I was on here tried to bite either Firenze Fire or his jock as they came to the line. I have to settle for 2nd by a neck at 17/1, but there's an inquiry, so maybe I'll get lucky and they'll blame Firenze Fire for something that upset the #9.
 
Nothing wrong with getting 6/1 on a horse to place.
 
Tried to add a W/P/S on Core Beliefs at 30/1 but I was too late.
 
Playing the #5 I Have Feelings to W/P here in race 1 at Woodbine.
 
Sharkey said:
Playing the #5 I Have Feelings to W/P here in race 1 at Woodbine.
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By daylight.

Is only going to pay out at 7/2, but I had it as the clear favourite in the race with fair odds of 5/2, so that's plenty good enough.
 
Gonna try some daily double (for $5 each) and a couple of pick 3 (for $2 each) plays with this card going on at Woodbine right now;

Double races 7 & 8 - #8,#9 with #1,#5,#9
Pick 3 races 7 to 9 - #8,#9 with #1,#5,#9 with #5
Double races 8 & 9 - #1,#5,#9 with #5
Pick 3 races 8 to 10 - #1,#5,#9 with #5 with #1,#4,#8
Double races 9 & 10 - #5 with #1,#4,#8

Should be $90 risked in total.
 
In addition to those multi-race wagers, I'm very likely to play the #9 Determinant to W/P in race 7 as well since I should get a nice price on him.
 
Sharkey said:
In addition to those multi-race wagers, I'm very likely to play the #9 Determinant to W/P in race 7 as well since I should get a nice price on him.
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Gonna try a tiny $0.20 superfecta play too for the hell of it with #8,#9 over #4,#5,#8,#9,#10.
 
Got the 8,5,10 part of it. Photo for 4th.
 
Shit, the #11 got 4th. I almost included that one too since I had him ranked 6th of 12 and he went off really long.
 
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Played another tiny #1,#5,#9 over #1,#4,#5,#6,#9 super in race 8 here.
 
That late pass just cost me a $350 double, and killed almost everything else I had in play..
 
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