The Ponies Thread (part 2)

We're only on day 8 of about 60. That's both the good news and bad.
 
Sharkey said:
I can believe you're just sitting waiting to make your move, Blunt, knowing your affinity for the off the pace types. And it's about time you gave us your name over there. Now T and I know who we have to put the block on as the contest nears the finish line.
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You know me well my friend, I love my closers!

I thought I already gave my name in the pm's then realized that I had not. I love cigars, baseball, boxing, and horse racing, and history in general. I have an 105 y/o soul in a young man's body, lol.
 
@t6p, @BluntTrauma21

Guys, I forgot to mention to you that there is a pace pattern horse running in that last race tomorrow who you may or may not see as an option. #9 Sassy Box (20/1 ML) who has the NPT, E2, and HLS angles going for it.
 
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Race 11 at Parx (G1 Pennsylvania Derby) (2:45);

#2 Hofburg 3/1 (P) ************ EP-99.8,HP-105.0,PP-96.8,SP-99.4,MP-102.0,DP-99.3,LP-99.0,SF-N/A (WP-99.3)
#5 Core Beliefs 10/1 (EP) ***** EP-98.0,HP-101.5,PP-96.3,SP-98.0,MP-99.8,DP-98.0,LP-98.0,SF-N/A (WP-97.7)
#8 McKinzie 5/2 (EP) ********** EP-97.8,HP-101.5,PP-96.5,SP-98.4,MP-100.3,DP-98.6,LP-99.0,SF-N/A (WP-95.9)
#7 Mr Freeze 12/1 (EP) ******** EP-92.8,HP-97.0,PP-94.0,SP-96.2,MP-98.3,DP-97.3,LP-99.5,SF-N/A (WP-94.8)
#9 Trigger Warning 20/1 (EP) ** EP-96.3,HP-99.5,PP-92.5,SP-94.2,MP-95.8,DP-93.4,LP-92.0,SF-89.0 (WP-93.2)
#10 Bravazo 6/1 (P) *********** EP-90.3,HP-99.5,PP-88.8,SP-93.4,MP-98.0,DP-94.4,LP-96.5,SF-88.0 (WP-92.5)
#4 King Zachary 20/1 (P) ****** EP-86.8,HP-96.5,PP-87.5,SP-92.4,MP-97.3,DP-94.3,LP-98.0,SF-81.0 (WP-90.0)
#3 Instilled Regard 15/1 (P) ** EP-84.8,HP-90.0,PP-91.0,SP-93.7,MP-96.3,DP-96.6,LP-102.5,SF-N/A (WP-89.0)
#6 Axelrod 5/1 (EP) *********** EP-81.3,HP-86.0,PP-91.3,SP-93.7,MP-96.0,DP-97.8,LP-106.0,SF-86.0 (WP-88.8)
#1 First Mondays 15/1 (EP) **** EP-83.5,HP-87.0,PP-90.0,SP-91.8,MP-93.5,DP-94.5,LP-100.0,SF-82.0 (WP-87.9)

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What I'm planning in that PA Derby;

- #2 Hofburg to win for $20 at 5/2 or better
- #5 Core Beliefs to win/place for $5/$10
- #2 over #5,#7,#9 exactas for $5 each
- #5 over #2 exacta for $5
- #2 over #5 over #7,#8,#9,#10 trifectas for $2 each
- #5 over #2 over #7,#8,#9,#10 trifectas for $2 each
- #2 over #7,#8,#9,#10 over #5 trifectas for $2 each
- #5 over #7,#8,#9,#10 over #2 trifectas for $2 each
- #2 over #5,#7,#9,#10 in supers for $1 each

Basically I'll be relying on both Hofburg and Core Beliefs to run good races, and a preference for McKinzie to finish off the board.

Let's crush!
 
I moved up 250 spots in the contest last night by hitting that 9/1 horse in the last race, but the results of those first two races make me want to vomit. My top ranked horse in the 1st race won at 6/1 (2nd ranked horse finished 2nd), and then my top ranked horse in the 2nd race finished 2nd at 19/1 (2nd ranked horse won). Those two were who I was initially going to go with before changing them.
 
I wished I had time to do more of these races from Parx today, as it's actually a really nice card with 3 graded stakes races, 2 more ungraded stakes, and then full fields throughout the day. I may have time to do a couple, but there looks to be plenty that are playable.
 
Sharkey said:
I moved up 250 spots in the contest last night by hitting that 9/1 horse in the last race, but the results of those first two races make me want to vomit. My top ranked horse in the 1st race won at 6/1 (2nd ranked horse finished 2nd), and then my top ranked horse in the 2nd race finished 2nd at 19/1 (2nd ranked horse won). Those two were who I was initially going to go with before changing them.
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Wtf Shark. That horse in race 7 was 4/1 on the morning line and went off at 19/1? I know everyone is playing by the same rules but it seems to me like the combination of having to make picks without having any idea of what the horse is going to go off at and, like you said, the oddsmaker being clueless, makes this contest much more about luck than skill.

Anyways, nice job making a big move in the rankings though bud. As expected, you're starting to pull away with about a $23 lead on me. Maybe the way to play this is just take the top horse on the numbers and pray for a good price? I don't know.

EDIT: 6/1 on the morning line I meant
 
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In the 2nd race last night, I think we all took the #11 Main Road thinking he'd be the value pick in the race with him being 12/1 on the morning line. He went off at 7/2. The horse I liked a little better in that race and had ranked 1st, the #1 He's a Ranger, was 6/1 on the morning line and went off at 19/1 while finishing 2nd.

That shit is so irritating.
 
Sharkey said:
==========

Race 11 at Parx (G1 Pennsylvania Derby) (2:45);

#2 Hofburg 3/1 (P) ************ EP-99.8,HP-105.0,PP-96.8,SP-99.4,MP-102.0,DP-99.3,LP-99.0,SF-N/A (WP-99.3)
#5 Core Beliefs 10/1 (EP) ***** EP-98.0,HP-101.5,PP-96.3,SP-98.0,MP-99.8,DP-98.0,LP-98.0,SF-N/A (WP-97.7)
#8 McKinzie 5/2 (EP) ********** EP-97.8,HP-101.5,PP-96.5,SP-98.4,MP-100.3,DP-98.6,LP-99.0,SF-N/A (WP-95.9)
#7 Mr Freeze 12/1 (EP) ******** EP-92.8,HP-97.0,PP-94.0,SP-96.2,MP-98.3,DP-97.3,LP-99.5,SF-N/A (WP-94.8)
#9 Trigger Warning 20/1 (EP) ** EP-96.3,HP-99.5,PP-92.5,SP-94.2,MP-95.8,DP-93.4,LP-92.0,SF-89.0 (WP-93.2)
#10 Bravazo 6/1 (P) *********** EP-90.3,HP-99.5,PP-88.8,SP-93.4,MP-98.0,DP-94.4,LP-96.5,SF-88.0 (WP-92.5)
#4 King Zachary 20/1 (P) ****** EP-86.8,HP-96.5,PP-87.5,SP-92.4,MP-97.3,DP-94.3,LP-98.0,SF-81.0 (WP-90.0)
#3 Instilled Regard 15/1 (P) ** EP-84.8,HP-90.0,PP-91.0,SP-93.7,MP-96.3,DP-96.6,LP-102.5,SF-N/A (WP-89.0)
#6 Axelrod 5/1 (EP) *********** EP-81.3,HP-86.0,PP-91.3,SP-93.7,MP-96.0,DP-97.8,LP-106.0,SF-86.0 (WP-88.8)
#1 First Mondays 15/1 (EP) **** EP-83.5,HP-87.0,PP-90.0,SP-91.8,MP-93.5,DP-94.5,LP-100.0,SF-82.0 (WP-87.9)

==========
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Shit! You gave me a heads up on this race earlier in the week and it totally slipped my mind. Luckily I have some time today to take a look and play along. Thanks for doing the numbers Shark.
 
t6p said:
Wtf Shark. That horse in race 7 was 4/1 on the morning line and went off at 19/1? I know everyone is playing by the same rules but it seems to me like the combination of having to make picks without having any idea of what the horse is going to go off at and, like you said, the oddsmaker being clueless, makes this contest much more about luck than skill.

Anyways, nice job making a big move in the rankings though bud. As expected, you're starting to pull away with about a $23 lead on me. Maybe the way to play this is just take the top horse on the numbers and pray for a good price? I don't know.

EDIT: 6/1 on the morning line I meant
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Beyond figuring out what the public's betting patterns are at that track, I really don't have any idea what to do, T. All I know is that shitty fucking morning line maker has cost me a ton in the contest with his ineptness. I saved all the PP's for the contest races so far, so maybe I can give those a review before we start up again on Wed, and see if some betting patterns exist.
 
@t6p

This will be easy. I've only looked at a few days so far, but the horses that are being bet down a lot from their morning lines have a pretty common theme. The public at Remington overbets horses who have competed at higher class levels than today's race regardless of how the horse did at that class level. That's really apparent. They also gravitate towards high percentage jockeys and trainers as well, but that's common at every track. They've really, really hammered horses who have participated in class levels above even if the horses showed they were out of their league and weren't nearly at that class level to begin with. We can beat that.

If that trend continues tonight my guess is that the #5 Wirewirewire will be a clear favourite in the first race. The #1, #6, and #7 should take the bulk of the money in the 2nd race, although not sure who'll be favourite (I'm assuming both the #4 and #5, who rank high, get ignored somewhat). My guess is that the #8 Wise Eyes goes off favourite in the last race with the #2, #10, and maybe the #1 also getting their share bet on them as well.
 
Sharkey said:
@t6p

This will be easy. I've only looked at a few days so far, but the horses that are being bet down a lot from their morning lines have a pretty common theme. The public at Remington overbets horses who have competed at higher class levels than today's race regardless of how the horse did at that class level. That's really apparent. They also gravitate towards high percentage jockeys and trainers as well, but that's common at every track. They've really, really hammered horses who have participated in class levels above even if the horses showed they were out of their league and weren't nearly at that class level to begin with. We can beat that.

If that trend continues tonight my guess is that the #5 Wirewirewire will be a clear favourite in the first race. The #1, #6, and #7 should take the bulk of the money in the 2nd race, although not sure who'll be favourite (I'm assuming both the #4 and #5, who rank high, get ignored somewhat). My guess is that the #8 Wise Eyes goes off favourite in the last race with the #2, #10, and maybe the #1 also getting their share bet on them as well.
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Alright, thanks for the info bud. Based on that and the numbers I've gone with:

Race 1: #7 She‘s Earthbound
Race 6: #5 He‘s So Zazzy
Race 9: #11 Okie Toast

Even with the frustration over the prices we're getting, my competitive nature is making this contest a lot of fun, haha. I wanna get back in this thing.
 
t6p said:
Alright, thanks for the info bud. Based on that and the numbers I've gone with:

Race 1: #7 She‘s Earthbound
Race 6: #5 He‘s So Zazzy
Race 9: #11 Okie Toast

Even with the frustration over the prices we're getting, my competitive nature is making this contest a lot of fun, haha. I wanna get back in this thing.
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That's funny. My frustration over the odds we get (or have to miss on with higher ranked horses) makes me want to say "screw this stupid contest". Haha. But I committed myself to it, though, and I'm in it to win it. So instead of continuously crying about it we might as well see if we can find a solution to this problem with the morning line maker. There's a solution somewhere. We just have to find it.

And I think this will be the first day you and I differ on all 3 of our picks, although I am still considering that #7 horse in race 1. Either that one or the #1 horse who ran ran an interesting compression race in it's only start and should be long odds.
 
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@t6p

Both of these horses have only had one start in race 1;

#4 Residual 3/1 (P) ********** EP-83.5,DP-74.0,HP-81.0,PP-70.5,SP-69.3,MP-68.0,LP-55.0,SF-83.5 (WP-69.4)
#1 Da Bara 15/1 (NA) ******** EP-68.5,DP-69.7,HP-66.0,PP-70.5,SP-70.3,MP-69.0,LP-72.0,SF-67.5 (WP-69.0)

Both are very positive patterns for improvement when a horse runs in it's 2nd start. The #4 horse has what is called a "plunge line" in that book I've mentioned before called Blinkers Off. Similar concept to the NPT and E2 angles for more experienced horses meaning that the horse showed life early in the race, but perhaps didn't have the conditioning (or racing knowledge/maturity) to sustain that life later in the race. The #1 horse has a "compression line" according to that same book, meaning that it ran a fairly even paced race all throughout, and expected improvement should be on the horizon at some point in it's next race, whether that be early or late.
 
@t6p

That doesn't mean you should pick either of them, though. Just me making a note of what is considered a positive pace pattern for each of them. I've never had to mention it before because I try my best to avoid maiden races, but tonight we don't have the choice to avoid this one.
 
Sharkey said:
@t6p

That doesn't mean you should pick either of them, though. Just me making a note of what is considered a positive pace pattern for each of them. I've never had to mention it before because I try my best to avoid maiden races, but tonight we don't have the choice to avoid this one.
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Very interesting stuff. I actually decided to change my pick to the #1 based on those patterns and the fact that a much smaller percentage of people in the contest are picking that horse. I'm not gonna catch up picking the same horses as everyone else.

I also changed my pick in race 9 after remembering the angles you mentioned earlier. I'll stick with my "safe" pick in race 6. So new picks (final answer this time....probably, haha):

Race 1: #1 Da Bara
Race 6: #5 He‘s So Zazzy
Race 9: #9 Sassy Box
 
t6p said:
Very interesting stuff. I actually decided to change my pick to the #1 based on those patterns and the fact that a much smaller percentage of people in the contest are picking that horse. I'm not gonna catch up picking the same horses as everyone else.

I also changed my pick in race 9 after remembering the angles you mentioned earlier. I'll stick with my "safe" pick in race 6. So new picks (final answer this time....probably, haha):

Race 1: #1 Da Bara
Race 6: #5 He‘s So Zazzy
Race 9: #9 Sassy Box
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Are you sure you want to do that, T? I've done it countless times, but last night was just another example on how I screwed myself by not sticking to my original plan.
 
Sharkey said:
Are you sure you want to do that, T? I've done it countless times, but last night was just another example on how I screwed myself by not sticking to my original plan.
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Positive bud, I think it's worth a shot. And it's not like I'm losing real money if it doesn't work out.
 
Sharkey said:
What I'm planning in that PA Derby;

- #2 Hofburg to win for $20 at 5/2 or better
- #5 Core Beliefs to win/place for $5/$10
- #2 over #5,#7,#9 exactas for $5 each
- #5 over #2 exacta for $5
- #2 over #5 over #7,#8,#9,#10 trifectas for $2 each
- #5 over #2 over #7,#8,#9,#10 trifectas for $2 each
- #2 over #7,#8,#9,#10 over #5 trifectas for $2 each
- #5 over #7,#8,#9,#10 over #2 trifectas for $2 each
- #2 over #5,#7,#9,#10 in supers for $1 each

Basically I'll be relying on both Hofburg and Core Beliefs to run good races, and a preference for McKinzie to finish off the board.

Let's crush!
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Geez, I've been looking at this race for the past hour and it feels like a nightmare to cap. Looks very competitive on paper, at least to me. I'm just pretty much going with the numbers and playing the following small:

Exacta box: #2 Hofburg, #5 Core Beliefs
Trifecta box: #2 Hofburg, #5 Core Beliefs, #7 Mr. Freeze
Superfecta box: #2 Hofburg, #5 Core Beliefs, #7 Mr. Freeze, #8 McKinzie

Good luck Shark and hopefully we can both cash this!
 
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