The Ponies Thread (part 2)

[Sharkey]

Down $40 for the day at this stupid track, and with that I'm cashing out and taking a break until the weekend besides the Remington contest.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Damn. Sorry for the bad luck shark. I know those feels. Better luck on the weekend.

 

[Sharkey]

Damn. Sorry for the bad luck shark. I know those feels. Better luck on the weekend.

Cheers N. No worries, though. I had a great weekend just betting the two races, and this new system of mine was once again able to identify most of the best longshots again today (a good 3rd in the 1st race, one a nose out of 2nd in another, one was a winner, a competitive 5th of 10 at 45/1, etc) even if I didn't take advantage of it. My top ranked horses have also finished top 3 in in 13 of the 15 races I've done so far with this new system (8-3-2), so if I put two and two together, I may have found a way to key two horses in trifectas leaving me only the one other one to find. Key the top horse 1st to 3rd, key the best longshot 1st to 3rd, spread somewhat for the open spot, and I'm good.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I did the pace formula for an 8f race just for fun when i had some time tonight and hit a 19-1 on a place bet, I believe he had the best number out of them all. Another horse wiped the floor with the rest of the field but I had w/p bets on the 19-1 and a 13-1 who also had good numbers from the formula. He finished 3rd. Should've bet them across the board but didn't bother, would've gotten paid a bit more.

My point is not bragging, they were small bets but the formula gave me two good runners at long odds for the 8f formula and it really played out well. Finding these longer shot horses who run well late in longer races gives them a great chance to take maybe not win spots all the time, but hitting p/s bets when other horses are tiring and slowing up is still a good payoff and is a really clever angle. Good stuff @Sharkey .

 

[Sharkey]

I did the pace formula for an 8f race just for fun when i had some time tonight and hit a 19-1 on a place bet, I believe he had the best number out of them all. Another horse wiped the floor with the rest of the field but I had w/p bets on the 19-1 and a 13-1 who also had good numbers from the formula. He finished 3rd. Should've bet them across the board but didn't bother, would've gotten paid a bit more.

My point is not bragging, they were small bets but the formula gave me two good runners at long odds for the 8f formula and it really played out well. Finding these longer shot horses who run well late in longer races gives them a great chance to take maybe not win spots all the time, but hitting p/s bets when other horses are tiring and slowing up is still a good payoff and is a really clever angle. Good stuff @Sharkey .

That's great to hear, Blunt. In time I'm thinking bigger than just merely hitting place and show bets with those longshot types, though. I'm talking about crushing trifectas and maybe even supers with them once we figure out the inner workings of this stuff. I am already seeing some early trends to begin the process.

Even in the simplified version of the pace formula you have, a horse that has late pace numbers isn't going to rank that high unless it also has decent early numbers as well. I guess if it's a field where most/every other horse has poor late numbers then strictly a late horse might rank up there without the early numbers to also back it up. But those should be rare.

 

[Sharkey]

I love this quote even if it's 30 years old;

"What I like to see are the books and programs by fellows such as Andrew Beyer and William Quirin, the experts. And don't get me wrong, these guys are experts. These people serve a purpose. Whether they're teaching the correct thing, I can't say. But for my purposes, speaking purely for myself, what they teach me is very important. And that is, whatever they say, do the exact opposite. That's a very valuable piece of information as far as I'm concerned. You need that. You cannot develop a pattern of success unless you know who the losers are. Once you know who the losers are, once you discern properly the pattern they are using, if you do everything but what they do, you will be successful. This is basically what I've done in handicapping."

- Buddy Alvarado

The quote isn't meant to disparage guys like Beyer, Quirin, or any of the more recent influential handicapping authors. What is says is to play against what they teach just because guys like that have been so influential and that they're methods have become overused by people who bet the horses. They're "proper" handicapping methods have become mainstream. I've said it before many times and I'll say it again, but you can't win money in this game using the handicapping techniques of Beyer, Quirin, or any other more recent author who has influence. It's impossible. If you're using the "proper" handicapping methods taught by guys like that then you're landing on the same horse(s) most everybody else does. If you're landing on the same horses everybody else does then you, as a group, are deflating the price on the horse well below what it's realistic chances should be. If you're deflating the value you get you're going to lose over the long run. That's a guarantee. This game is hard enough as is with the 16-19% takeout the track gets off the top (way more in exotics) and then coupled with the chaotic nature that any given race has the potential to be at any time considering field sizes. Why then would you also want to "follow the crowd" and accept deflated value on a horse found with widely used handicapping methods? Makes no sense.

"You cannot develop a pattern of success unless you know who the losers are. Once you know who the losers are, once you discern properly the pattern they are using, if you do everything but what they do, you will be successful."

 

[Sharkey]

I love this quote even if it's 30 years old;

"What I like to see are the books and programs by fellows such as Andrew Beyer and William Quirin, the experts. And don't get me wrong, these guys are experts. These people serve a purpose. Whether they're teaching the correct thing, I can't say. But for my purposes, speaking purely for myself, what they teach me is very important. And that is, whatever they say, do the exact opposite. That's a very valuable piece of information as far as I'm concerned. You need that. You cannot develop a pattern of success unless you know who the losers are. Once you know who the losers are, once you discern properly the pattern they are using, if you do everything but what they do, you will be successful. This is basically what I've done in handicapping."

- Buddy Alvarado

The quote isn't meant to disparage guys like Beyer, Quirin, or any of the more recent influential handicapping authors. What is says is to play against what they teach just because guys like that have been so influential and that they're methods have become overused by people who bet the horses. They're "proper" handicapping methods have become mainstream. I've said it before many times and I'll say it again, but you can't win money in this game using the handicapping techniques of Beyer, Quirin, or any other more recent author who has influence. It's impossible. If you're using the "proper" handicapping methods taught by guys like that then you're landing on the same horse(s) most everybody else does. If you're landing on the same horses everybody else does then you, as a group, are deflating the price on the horse well below what it's realistic chances should be. If you're deflating the value you get you're going to lose over the long run. That's a guarantee. This game is hard enough as is with the 16-19% takeout the track gets off the top (way more in exotics) and then coupled with the chaotic nature that any given race has the potential to be at any time considering field sizes. Why then would you also want to "follow the crowd" and accept deflated value on a horse found with widely used handicapping methods? Makes no sense.

"You cannot develop a pattern of success unless you know who the losers are. Once you know who the losers are, once you discern properly the pattern they are using, if you do everything but what they do, you will be successful."

@BluntTrauma21

i.e. Play around with that basic pace formula if you want. Experiment with it. Mix and match it with other aspects of what's on a horse's PP's if you think it'll help. You never know what you may stumble on if you do that.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@BluntTrauma21

i.e. Play around with that basic pace formula if you want. Experiment with it. Mix and match it with other aspects of what's on a horse's PP's if you think it'll help. You never know what you may stumble on if you do that.

I was actually thinking about adding in the older formula with class and race ratings etc. and coupling that with the basic pace formulas on top of that. I know that's still probably very simple compared to the math you're doing but it could be a way for someone newer to the game like me to try to find some value that the public isn't finding right?

 

[Sharkey]

I was actually thinking about adding in the older formula with class and race ratings etc. and coupling that with the basic pace formulas on top of that. I know that's still probably very simple compared to the math you're doing but it could be a way for someone newer to the game like me to try to find some value that the public isn't finding right?

You could do that, sure, although the pace number might end up getting devalued somewhat in that equation just because a lot went into it even if it was an older version. I was thinking something a little more simple too. Haha. Pace total plus this number. Pace total plus that number. Pace number plus both this and that number. That sort of thing where they're small little experimental equations that won't take up much of your time and yet may also still have value.

You know the basics of capping a race even without using a formula, so find something that shows value. Make it unique for yourself. Dare to be different and win, my friend.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

You could do that, sure, although the pace number might end up getting devalued somewhat in that equation just because a lot went into it even if it was an older version. I was thinking something a little more simple too. Haha. Pace total plus this number. Pace total plus that number. Pace number plus both this and that number. That sort of thing where they're small little experimental equations that won't take up much of your time and yet may also still have value.

You know the basics of capping a race even without using a formula, so find something that shows value. Make it unique for yourself. Dare to be different and win, my friend.

I think I can speak for @t6p on this too, but I always appreciate how you have more confidence in me than I do, lol. Thank you for the sage advice as always, Shark, it really does mean a lot, buddy.

 

[Sharkey]

I think I can speak for @t6p on this too, but I always appreciate how you have more confidence in me than I do, lol. Thank you for the sage advice as always, Shark, it really does mean a lot, buddy.

Well shit, how do you expect to win if you don't think you're going to win? Come on man. This is the truth, Blunt, so you better start believing in it. You (and T when he does his own races) stand a better chance of winning than the majority of people betting into the pools and that is the truth. Even using that simple pace formula that you guys have as is. It's unique and that itself gives you an advantage over others who are simply betting the high beyer figure, meaningless trainer stats, or whatever other ineffective methods they are using and losing with. But it also has concepts and reasoning behind it that are actually effective with the way it's weighted.

P.S. You and T are going to be crushing 2 horse exacta boxes by the end of the week I'll have you know. I just have to figure out how to translate 8 pace lines into 2 for you guys, which should be simple enough.

 

[t6p]

Well shit, how do you expect to win if you don't think you're going to win? Come on man. This is the truth, Blunt, so you better start believing in it. You (and T when he does his own races) stand a better chance of winning than the majority of people betting into the pools and that is the truth. Even using that simple pace formula that you guys have as is. It's unique and that itself gives you an advantage over others who are simply betting the high beyer figure, meaningless trainer stats, or whatever other ineffective methods they are using and losing with. But it also has concepts and reasoning behind it that are actually effective with the way it's weighted.

P.S. You and T are going to be crushing 2 horse exacta boxes by the end of the week I'll have you know. I just have to figure out how to translate 8 pace lines into 2 for you guys, which should be simple enough.

That’s what I’m talking about Shark. Hell of a pep talk my friend.

 

[Sharkey]

That’s what I’m talking about Shark. Hell of a pep talk my friend.

Haha. Cheers T. I just wanted Blunt to know the truth, though. That's all.

 

[Sharkey]

@BluntTrauma21

I'm going to let you know the specifics behind the positive pace patterns over the next day or two as well. The pace formula you have is weighted to help find aspects of them on it's own. But it's also good that you know what exactly to look for too. If a horse has two of them to it's credit and also ranks fairly high on your number then all you'll have to do is go and collect your winnings. That's only a slight exaggeration. But a horse with two of them is a very powerful indicator, albeit they're also quite rare.

I'm sure @t6p can attest to how well they have performed over the last month or two since I've uncovered the patterns. In fact he even played two of them in the contest on Sat and won with both of them. I'm guessing the fact that they had those pace pattern went into why he selected them in the first place.

 

[Sharkey]

The Pegasus World Cup group announced today that they were expanding to include a multi-million dollar turf race on the card. That's the good news. The bad news is they also announced what is undoubtably the dumbest bet being offered up in the history of horse racing with their "Pick 24". That means you have to pick the exact finishing order of all 12 runners in each of the Pegasus and then also the turf race. The prize for doing that is $5 million, which may seem like a lot until you figure out that the random chance of anyone predicting even one race of 12 in the exact order is almost 500 million to 1. For two, the chances would be one in many, many, many trillions. So dumb.

 

[t6p]

@BluntTrauma21

I'm going to let you know the specifics behind the positive pace patterns over the next day or two as well. The pace formula you have is weighted to help find aspects of them on it's own. But it's also good that you know what exactly to look for too. If a horse has two of them to it's credit and also ranks fairly high on your number then all you'll have to do is go and collect your winnings. That's only a slight exaggeration. But a horse with two of them is a very powerful indicator, albeit they're also quite rare.

I'm sure @t6p can attest to how well they have performed over the last month or two since I've uncovered the patterns. In fact he even played two of them in the contest on Sat and won with both of them. I'm guessing the fact that they had those pace pattern went into why he selected them in the first place.

That was definitely the reason Shark. Thanks for that. By the way, I see you’re ahead of me in the contest now by $2 or $3.

 

[Sharkey]

That was definitely the reason Shark. Thanks for that. By the way, I see you’re ahead of me in the contest now by $2 or $3.

Oh hey, I am ahead of you. Hmm, for some reason I thought you would be ahead of me after Sat. But that's good to know with you and Blunt being my stiffest competition for the whole thing and all. Well, get used to that T. Me being ahead of you that is. Haha.

I'm in the process of working on tomorrow's races as we speak, so you guys will have those by the morning at the latest.

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p, @BluntTrauma21

Remington Park for Wed, Sept 19th;

==========

Race 4 (6.5f-Dirt) (6:31);

#5 Awesome Emmit 3/1 - 179.9
#3 Minefield 6/1 - 179.7
#7 Irish Capital 20/1 - 173.1
#9 Star's Valentino 20/1 - 172.5
#8 Redesign 7/2 - 171.6
#1 Bajan Cash 5/2 - 171.5
#6 Suspect a Storm 8/1 - 170.7
#4 Witt'sdollarnight 9/2 - 170.4
#2 Just Fred 20/1 - 167.6

==========

Race 6 (8f-Turf) (7:25);

#8 Yes Mon 3/1 - 160.1
#1 Rowdy the Warrior 8/1 - 159.1
#12 Wolfzing 15/1 - 154.7
#3 Like a Cowboy 15/1 - 153.0
#10 Cole Camp 5/2 - 152.9
#9 Cook 15/1 - 150.3
#5 Timely Reply 30/1 - 148.3
#7 Backster Ball 20/1 - 147.5 (??? only 1 race of data)
#11 Smart Pioneer 5/1 - 147.2
#2 Danny Paycheck 30/1 - 145.2
#6 Race the Moon 30/1 - 140.4
#4 Morhawk 5/1 - 125.8

==========

Race 9 (7.5f-Turf) (8:45);

#7 Casting Crowns 2/1 - 153.1
#12 Rapid Lady 4/1 - 147.4
#11 Klondike Annie 12/1 - 145.6
#10 Forest Girl 15/1 - 145.3
#6 Flying Magic Song 8/1 - 143.9
#4 After Red Sun 5/1 - 139.5
#8 Gone Awry 15/1 - 138.0
#9 Baby Lylly 30/1 - 137.1
#2 U S Liberty 20/1 - 133.8
#5 Frozen Rocket 30/1 - 131.7
#1 Affaire Secrete 20/1 - 131.5
#3 Goldie Again 20/1 - 129.6

==========

 

[t6p]

@t6p, @BluntTrauma21

Remington Park for Wed, Sept 19th;

==========

Race 4 (6.5f-Dirt) (6:31);

#5 Awesome Emmit 3/1 - 179.9
#3 Minefield 6/1 - 179.7
#7 Irish Capital 20/1 - 173.1
#9 Star's Valentino 20/1 - 172.5
#8 Redesign 7/2 - 171.6
#1 Bajan Cash 5/2 - 171.5
#6 Suspect a Storm 8/1 - 170.7
#4 Witt'sdollarnight 9/2 - 170.4
#2 Just Fred 20/1 - 167.6

==========

Race 6 (8f-Turf) (7:25);

#8 Yes Mon 3/1 - 160.1
#1 Rowdy the Warrior 8/1 - 159.1
#12 Wolfzing 15/1 - 154.7
#3 Like a Cowboy 15/1 - 153.0
#10 Cole Camp 5/2 - 152.9
#9 Cook 15/1 - 150.3
#5 Timely Reply 30/1 - 148.3
#7 Backster Ball 20/1 - 147.5 (??? only 1 race of data)
#11 Smart Pioneer 5/1 - 147.2
#2 Danny Paycheck 30/1 - 145.2
#6 Race the Moon 30/1 - 140.4
#4 Morhawk 5/1 - 125.8

==========

Race 9 (7.5f-Turf) (8:45);

#7 Casting Crowns 2/1 - 153.1
#12 Rapid Lady 4/1 - 147.4
#11 Klondike Annie 12/1 - 145.6
#10 Forest Girl 15/1 - 145.3
#6 Flying Magic Song 8/1 - 143.9
#4 After Red Sun 5/1 - 139.5
#8 Gone Awry 15/1 - 138.0
#9 Baby Lylly 30/1 - 137.1
#2 U S Liberty 20/1 - 133.8
#5 Frozen Rocket 30/1 - 131.7
#1 Affaire Secrete 20/1 - 131.5
#3 Goldie Again 20/1 - 129.6

==========

Thank you sir!

 

[t6p]

Locked in these for the contest tonight:

Race 4: #3 Minefield
Race 6: #1 Rowdy the Warrior
Race 9: #12 Rapid Lady

GL Shark and Blunt.