Terribad Polls for Trumpublicans Two Months Before Midterms

[Amerikuracana]

Polls are numbers.

They literally offer NO narrative.

Are there lots of narratives “based on polls”? Sure.

Does that make polls narratives? Nope.

That’s the point I have made 99 times in this thread.

I don’t think you did, though.

Dude, gimme a fkn break. Polls are incredibly easy to manipulate, and this was a major problem in marketing for decades.

Manipulating the control group happens in all science, as well. Hopefully not that often.

 

[DIDM]

@luckyshot
So, I guess you are done talking about the difference between polls and predictions?

Ignorance is often a choice.

Nope, it just takes longer now that you cried

 

[DIDM]

Do you like PEW?

https://www.google.com/amp/www.pewr...-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/?amp=1

 

[luckyshot]

Dude, gimme a fkn break. Polls are incredibly easy to manipulate, and this was a major problem in marketing for decades.

Manipulating the control group happens in all science, as well. Hopefully not that often.

Sure. Polls are easy to manipulate, IF you want to manipulate them. But the national polls ACCURATELY predicted the national popular vote in 2016. You really could understand this if you wanted to.

Do you like PEW?

https://www.google.com/amp/www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/?amp=1

See post 171 in this thread where I already responded to that very article.

It's unfortunate that writers, aggregators, and even pollsters were so eager to throw blame at historically accurate polls.

Spoiler

The distance between the blue square and the red diamond is how far the polls "missed"


As you can see, 2016 was pretty solid.

It’s called CYA. Blame the polls, then I won’t have to admit that I fucked up interpreting them.

 

[DIDM]

@luckyshot
Sure. Polls are easy to manipulate, IF you want to manipulate them. But the national polls ACCURATELY predicted the national popular vote in 2016. You really could understand this if you wanted to


Ding ding ding, here you finally admit it, you wanted the popular vote to determine the election, even though those aren’t the rules of the game.

So you are just a whiny little cunt, upset his team didn’t win a game with very clear rules

 

[luckyshot]

@luckyshot
Sure. Polls are easy to manipulate, IF you want to manipulate them. But the national polls ACCURATELY predicted the national popular vote in 2016. You really could understand this if you wanted to


Ding ding ding, here you finally admit it, you wanted the popular vote to determine the election, even though those aren’t the rules of the game.

So you are just a whiny little cunt, upset his team didn’t win a game with very clear rules

Sigh... you are dumb.... And I am arguing with you. What does that make me?...

The polls predicted the popular vote. Period. End of esssay.

 

[K1levelgrappler]

The analysis of the 2016 polling I've read suggests that the state level polling was weaker than in previous election cycles. There was just less news organizations conducting them and less data to draw from. I won't get too excited about the latest round of generic polling. Control of the house will come down to a bunch of match ups and it's still possible that the Republicans will eak out enough of them to keep control. It's encouraging though.

That being said as many have pointed out the national polling from 2016 was pretty much spot on so it's kinda hilarious that Trumpsters think it's all a big conspiracy to demoralize them but they're fucking retards so it's to be expected.

 

[DIDM]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.da...lsters-final-polls-vs-final-james-barrett?amp

 

[DIDM]

Sigh... you are dumb.... And I am arguing with you. What does that make me?...

The polls predicted the popular vote. Period. End of esssay.

@luckyshot


No, biased polling predicted that

 

[IReallyDoTrainUFC]

Note: Anyone who says "Polls were wrong in 2016" is outing himself as not knowing what a poll is. The national polls were quite accurate in 2016.

I'm not the guy to make a thread every time there is a new poll, but a batch of polls came out this past week that are really bad for the GOP just a couple of months out from the midterms.

Highlights:

• The Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is up to 12 points according to a new NPR/ Marist poll, up from 7 in July on the same poll. The fivethirtyeight average of all polls gives Democrats a 9 point lead.
  
• The increasing Democratic lead has been driven by voters in the Midwest. Voters in the Midwest have swung 13 points in the Democratic direction since July, according to the Marist poll.
• There has been an 11 point shift towards Democrats in small towns, and a 6 point shift towards Democrats in rural areas.
• Democrats now enjoy a 56 to 34 advantage over the GOP in suburbs-- and many of the Congressional "swing districts" up for grabs in November are heavily suburban.
• Trump won the presidency partially due to unexpectedly strong performance with women (he got 41% of the female vote). But women have shifted Democratic more heavily than any other group since that time. Women say they favor Democratic candidates 62 to 28 percent for these upcoming midterms.
• Three separate polls this past week have Trump's overall approval rating back below 40 percent-- the lowest it has been since February.

I'm not saying there is going to be a blue wave-- GOP gerrymandering and a historically favorable Senate map may be too much for Democrats to overcome-- but this data should have the GOP thinking, if not outright worrying.

One possible explanation for the left shift since summer is the effects of Trump's trade war on Midwestern agriculture and auto making. Another possibility is that many working class people, particularly in the Midwest, are getting tired of hearing how great the economy is without seeing it "trickle down" to their wages in a really meaningful way.



https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/6468...-democratic-advantage-for-control-of-congress

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Ohhh, let's really care about what masters are going to rule is and oppress this next election.

Why do you idiots care about this stuff?

 

[cincymma79]

Every president has lost seats since I believe Eisenhower by if it happens this time it will be the first time it has ever happened

 

[luckyshot]

Sigh... you are dumb.... And I am arguing with you. What does that make me?...

The polls predicted the popular vote. Period. End of esssay.

@luckyshot


No, biased polling predicted that

Fucking a.

The polls said Hillary would win the popular vote by between 1 and 6 percent.

She won the popular vote by 2 percent.

What part of this doesn’t compute in you fragile skull?

 

[Tiny]

You... did... not... link...to... a.... poll...

You linked to people drawing conclusions based on a poll.

This thread actually explains a lot.

Like why Trumpbots can’t tell the difference between Hannity and “the news.”

Actually the link to the actual POLL with the data is dead because the election is long since over and people (besides you libtards have moved on.
See this?
https://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
That was the link to the actual POLL discussed in the article. The link is now dead. All this because you didn't like a dead link? What a joke.


Here's a poll

Here's a poll
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-opens-12-point-lead-trump-thirds-biased/story?id=40114224
here's another poll
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...075993d73a2_story.html?utm_term=.4a92855a5fe5
And more polls
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-trump-midwest-battlegrounds-n626541
All the polls!
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2375
Everywhere is polls polls.
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/ele...l-shows-clinton-ahead-20160917-htmlstory.html

Never EVER go full libtard.

link was dead and you are complaining like the results in the article are a fucking lie...what a waste of time.

 

[luckyshot]

Actually the link to the actual POLL with the data is dead because the election is long since over and people (besides you libtards have moved on.
See this?
https://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
That was the link to the actual POLL discussed in the article. The link is now dead. All this because you didn't like a dead link? What a joke.


Here's a poll

Here's a poll
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-opens-12-point-lead-trump-thirds-biased/story?id=40114224
here's another poll
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...075993d73a2_story.html?utm_term=.4a92855a5fe5
And more polls
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-trump-midwest-battlegrounds-n626541
All the polls!
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2375
Everywhere is polls polls.
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/ele...l-shows-clinton-ahead-20160917-htmlstory.html

Never EVER go full libtard.

link was dead and you are complaining like the results in the article are a fucking lie...what a waste of time.

You posted a bunch of polls from (those I can read anyway) way before the election. Hillary had a double figure lead.

This is correct.

It is also correct that polls TIGHTENED, just before the election, particularly after the Comey letter.

Hence, why smart people were concerned...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

 

[glenwo2]

On a lighter note :

 

[Tiny]

You posted a bunch of polls from (those I can read anyway) way before the election. Hillary had a double figure lead.

This is correct.

It is also correct that polls TIGHTENED, just before the election, particularly after the Comey letter.

Hence, why smart people were concerned...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

Think the point is nobody gives a fuck about polls.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/#!

Look at how many people had Hillary ahead the day before!

 

[glenwo2]

Think the point is nobody gives a fuck about polls.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/#!

Look at how many people had Hillary ahead the day before!

You know....I'm beginning to think that the only reason they believe Russia interfered in the 2016 election is because the Left were unable to manipulate the voting results for the ELECTORAL COLLEGE as opposed to the Popular vote.

I no longer pay attention to any Polls, whether they're good or bad in regards to Trump. I only wait for the result.

 

[DIDM]

I’ve never seen grown men cry so much

It literally makes me giggle how big of pussies the two of you are


Trump won, the polls were way off, it was literally a 0 sum chance Trump would win, yet, he did

Bring on the midterms and 2020, your tears fuel the future

 

[luckyshot]

Think the point is nobody gives a fuck about polls.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/#!

Look at how many people had Hillary ahead the day before!

Good point.

You know why most polls had Hillary ahead by a couple of points in the popular vote the day before the election?... Because she was ahead by a couple of points in the popular vote the day before the election.

HENCE the reason why she.... won the popular vote... by... a couple of points....

Do you see how those things are related?

 

[luckyshot]

Note to self (and general Sherdog reading audience):

I am done breaking things down into terms that idiots can understand. I think I've done my service on that front in this thread.

Here's the things about idiots: they usually don't want to understand.