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Discussion in 'The War Room' started by dragonsfly, Feb 5, 2018.
Are you reading anything into 1000 point swings daily?
I said this is a correction. I predict losses will potentially go about another 10%. But that's all this is, a correction from an overvalued market. There is nothing to suggest that this is the start of another recession.
We've hit 10% over the last 2 weeks, so this is officially a correction now. But a bunch of loons are treating this as a "This is it!" moment, which it clearly isn't. We can't keep hitting new records every week
No, just massively increased risk of it.
I keep trying to tell people our economy is a mine field of bubbles waiting to burst. Maybe we make it through the mine field unscathed. Maybe we step the wrong place, and a chain reaction blows up the whole field.
I can't predict the future, but I can accurately describe risk, and the risk is through the roof right now.
The fundamentals are really good though, so you're arguing against the market. Wage growth is rising, we are at full employment, and inflation is not yet a problem. The world economy is solid, as growth is occurring pretty much everywhere. The market is fundamentally healthy. And where are you getting this idea that a chain reaction blows it all up? The world is made of symbiotic networks, not chains of full-on dependencies.
Risk is actually pretty low right now, relatively to other points. The floor clearly isn't going to fall out right now, and since the market is healthy, it stands reasonable to believe that this is just a market correction of a bunch of overvalued stocks. That stuff happens. If you want to talk about bubbles, talk to me about Bitcoin trading at $15k/coin. That was a bubble that we all saw coming. And even that is starting to normalize now.
If you're near retirement, your portfolio shouldn't be heavily invested in stocks.
Under 35: Go nuts on whatever you want.
35 to 45: Start getting into bonds, sell risky stocks and buy established ones
45 to 55: No more than 1/3 of your portfolio should be in stocks at this stage
55 to 65: You should switch to some guaranteed income fund, and no more than 1/5 exposure to equities
I agree that Tesla is somewhat over valued from a earnings standpoint but keep in mind that Solar City(i.e. solar technology) merged into Tesla. Tesla is also at the forefront of the emerging battery market, which can change the game when talking about renewable energy. So Tesla isnt all about cars/trucks like other corporations
You guys all need to keep selling your stocks. It's never a bad thing to get cash.
Pull out for a while and we'll figure this thing out.
Their Gigafactory has positioned them as the battery supplier for all the other major manufacturers as well. Tesla owns some unique positions that really raise the valuation of their company.
R-selected are all: "We need to sell!!!!!"
K-selected are all: "Let's just chill and watch this thing sink to the bottom."
Yup and major companies like Tesla, Apple and Google do actually have fundamental problems and are dragging shit down. They deserve to be down. The others don't.
That is all nonsense. Real wage growth is non-existent. We are now about even with inflation for wage growth. That isn't real growth, that is treading water, instead of drowning.
Full employment is a BS number, as those on the right liked to point out when Obama was in office. The number of people who have dropped out of the work force is still historically very high.
The fundamentals of the economy are not strong. We have the same economy that gave us the GFC. There is a reason interest rates have been at historic lows, and yet it has taken 10 years of electrinically conjured money for us to return to pre GFC economic numbers.
We have went from bubble to bubble since the .com boom. We can't grow our economy without bubbles because we destroyed our consumption in the name of higher corporate profits.
Tesla reminds me of how I play video games and why I always lose at them. Cuz I make sure I have the best tech in my soldiers, tanks, etc before I fight. But before then, a less advanced bigger army crushes me. I bet Musk plays video games the same way because that is exactly what he is doing. He is taking so long it is gonna be snatched away by others with bigger production. Like GM and nearly everybody.
Tesla and Amazon have polar opposite business models. Which company is in better shape?
This r and k selected garbage is utter nonsense
Yes, but because of passive investing in things like ETF and of course bitcoin. Yes there are bubbles out there. But there are still a lot of good companies out there.
The economy and market are different though often interact.
Facebook isnt a bubble. Boeing isnt a bubble. These are real companies. You can't compare this to dot.com shit. There are no fraud stocks on that scale. The only bubble is crypto.
No I mean bubbles like our higher education, Health care, or housing.
You know where I live, housing prices have returned to pre-gfc levels. That means 300k for a 3 bed 2 bath house. How many 80k jobs a year, does a local market need to sustain the average house selling for 300k?
I don't know the answer, but I'm pretty sure my local economy doesn't have that many 80k a year jobs, which means that housing once again in my area is a bubble.
100% in agreement.
When that clown dropped "we are at full employment" I was like
We weren't even at full employment under keynesianism, but suddenly we are at full employment during neoliberalism? Cmon son.
The economy is shit and hopeless. lol. I agree with you there.
I am talking about the market in general.
I think the big difference now is that vastly more people are renting as opposed to owning(by way of predatory loans) because, yeah, I don't understand how people are affording 400k single family homes in some of the worst areas for employment in this country(Central valley CA). Stockton for instance has some of the highest unemployment/underemployment in the country, hence their testing of UBI, and you'd be surprised at how much a shithole 3br costs in the hood. It's absurd and makes little sense.
I'm not sure what the end game for this is or if it will be as bad as 07/08 but something's gotta give.