Rewatched Khabib/Ragin' Al with a Conor matchup in mind

Good thread man!
 
Except for the fact that khabib couldn't muster the effort to do a proper takedown for the entire round 3

yet he got one in round 5.

Fun fact: Conor McGregor has never knocked down or finished anyone after round 2 in his entire career.
 
Uh, exactly. He didn’t try to diet down. You’re making my point for me.
I don't think you know much of anything about weight cutting.

Surely a part of Diaz’ different physique had to be Diaz not needing to cut an additional 15lbs? He has been quoted as saying he has to starve himself to hit 155.
Diaz weighed 170 lbs both at Lightweight and Welterweight, the only difference is the former had a water weight cut and the latter didn't. Additionally, the fact that Diaz looked different from the Johnson to McGregor 2 fight in spite of weighing the same only proves my point that he wasn't in-shape.
 
Conor's wrestling and grappling absolutely sucks compared to Al.

You are better off comparing him to a a Micheal Johnson who is better at striking and worse at wrestling.

wall_o__text-blog-full.jpg
What's crazy is that MJ has a decent wrestling background as well.
 
Conor's wrestling and grappling absolutely sucks compared to Al.

You are better off comparing him to a a Micheal Johnson who is better at striking and worse at wrestling.

wall_o__text-blog-full.jpg

Pretty sure this place needs to ban usless posters like this who try to detract people from writing well thought out posts. Maybe if you didn't spend so much time spam posting gifs and pictures to get useless likes from people youve never met to make yourself feel better day in and day out you could tell the difference between an actual wall of text and a properly formed opinion. Fucking mongloid shitposter.
 
Good breakdown. One thing to note is that even if Conor doesn't knock out Khabib with one shot, if his left hand cracks him, with the accuracy and precision that Conor has, I see Khabib going on auto-pilot like Eddie did, getting sloppy and recklessly closing the distance and getting cracked again.
55/45 Conor for me. Huge fan of both and can't wait.
 
I don't think you know much of anything about weight cutting.


Diaz weighed 170 lbs both at Lightweight and Welterweight, the only difference is the former had a water weight cut and the latter didn't. Additionally, the fact that Diaz looked different from the Johnson to McGregor 2 fight in spite of weighing the same only proves my point that he wasn't in-shape.
Diaz didn’t weigh 170 when fighting Conor in the second fight. That’s preposterous. He’s clearly larger than he was vs MJ or Cerrone or any of his recent LW fights, both at weigh-ins and in-cage.
 
If Conor is to win, I hope the MMA Gods will it by KO, and not some impressive flashy unexpected submission. Conor's hubris would be ... too much.
 
Conor has a punchers chance the first 2 rounds.
After that we have seen how he fatiques against diaz...

And on his back he is a turtle.

Well protected by the ufc to not having fought a wrestler (except for extremely short notice mendez who was winning the fight untill he gassed because of the short noticedness)

Holloway (nearly in his teens), siver, alvarez, porier.....
Hmmmm see the trend......

I'll somewhat change my tone if he beats khabib. But would still need to see him against another wrester.....
 
Conor has a punchers chance the first 2 rounds.
After that we have seen how he fatiques against diaz...

And on his back he is a turtle.

Well protected by the ufc to not having fought a wrestler (except for extremely short notice mendez who was winning the fight untill he gassed because of the short noticedness)

Holloway (nearly in his teens), siver, alvarez, porier.....
Hmmmm see the trend......

I'll somewhat change my tone if he beats khabib. But would still need to see him against another wrester.....

I'm guessing you didn't watch the fight or read the breakdown in this thread.
 
Round 1
First 20 seconds and Khabib backs up to the cage and Al hits him with a nice straight right clean. Not particularly hard since Al's stance is low and preparing for takedown shots. Khabib throws a bit wild and barely moves out of the way of a decent hook, Khabib then does a little bit of running to reset.

Al backs off and Khabib shoots a low single and grabs it tight and gets the takedown. Al gives up his back, but is able to scramble and get to his feet on the fence. I don't think Conor would be able to recover from giving up his back like that. He can't let that happen.

From here the round is basically a series of Al getting taken down and getting up against the cage, not a lot of damage. Khabib is literally a master of using the cage against his opponent. He knows exactly how to apply pressure so they have to rely on the cage to stay on their feet, which completely let him move around their side and back. The last 20 second Al is finally able to square up against the cage and it's fairly even.
I'm going to steal this from a audio segment I heard from Eddie Bravo, but if Conor goes to the ground his best chance isn't to get to his feet, it's to square up and fight and play guard. Khabib's style is made to have you trying to get up, HE WILL WIN THIS BATTLE. You need to fight him and get him off his game and make him WORK for what he wants to do. It will tire him out. Nothing Al did in the first round tired Khabib at all.

Round 2
They come out striking. Khabib keeps his hands up for the first 15 seconds, but then they drop to his waist. He does plant his right hand to his head anytime he throws with his left. They both pretty much suck with the hands. Khabib again dives for a super low single almost gets it and pushes Al against the cage. Not sure Conor would have snaked out if Khabib grabbed that ankle.

Khabib gets a beautiful single against the cage and rides Al for like two minutes, nothing really happening until Al gives up his back. Khabib then takes his back from the top and tries for a RNC, but doesn't get it. Khabib's arms look like they are pumping tons of blood and I wouldn't be surprised if his arms are gassed. If he were fresh I think he would finish that choke. Al can't get Khabib off his back for the rest of the round

Round 3
Again Khabib keeps his hands in high guard until 4:45 like clockwork he drops them to his waist. Khabib's left hand is at his leg. This could be a HUGE opening for Conor as he is a southpaw, but I would have to imagine his camp has him keeping that left hand high. But if his left hand is high it raises a few questions. How would that affect his ability to shoot and grab, both his low single attempts are pretty much his nosediving to the ground and grabbing with his left arm. How long into a 5 round fight will he remember to keep that left hand high?

1 minute into 3rd round and both of Khabib's hands are straight down. He is obviously tired.
He is peppering Al with jabs from his waist. Al is pretty much gassed. Khabib shoots a failed low single. Obviously the shot for Conor to watch for.
Khabib keeps throwing a few jabs and Al gets a decent shot in once or twice.

Khabib switches to south paw and actually looks invigorated from it. He's keeping his guard up and looks quicker and a bit cleaner. lol I forgot how much he talks.
Both Khabib and Al basically took the round off to recover. Khabib looked much fresher at the end of the round than the beginning. Makes me wonder, even if Khabib does take Conor down for the first two rounds could he keep doing it again for a 3rd and obviously standing is Conor's realm so it really doesn't give Khabib a spot to recover at the start of a new round.

Round 4
If Khabib fights for every 1 minute against Conor like he did this round he will get beat up. All he did was throw jabs from his waist and get hit with so so overhand rights from Al. He failed another low single. I think he is very tired.

Round 5
Before the round Khabib's corner calls for him to finish Al.
Khabib immediately shoots from the middle of the cage and it's honestly a fairly weak try. Very little penetration and zero follow through. Khabib doesn't "look" gassed, but all of his actions seem half-assed at this point.

Al is pretty much throwing at will, not landing much because it's all arm punches. Khabib is literally just leaning back and taking a few steps back. Not great defensive form from Khabib.
Khabib shoots for a double against the cage and is very easily shrugged off.
Khabib starts throwing wild as fuck and gets Al to back up. Khabib secures double under body lock and quickly takes Al down. Goes for the back doesn't get it and starts riding against the cage. Riding and back takes for the rest of the round.


TLDR
My thoughts from rewatching are khabib is going to try to hulk smash Conor for the first two rounds, but honestly his finish rate isn't particularly good and a tired Conor will still KO a tired Khabib if he survives past round 2 due to Khabib's striking offense and defense being terrible, especially when tired.
In the middle of the 5th Khabib hit Al with an uppercut that hurt him and grazed his eye, blinding him for a moment. Khabib took advantage, went into full bull-rush mode and Al was unable to fend off the takedown.

Predicting the fight through the lens of Al's fight isn't overly illuminating. Al's a plodding orthodox fighter with a 70" reach, decent wrestling and power. Not similar to Mcgregor at all. The main takeaways should be that Khabib's gnp isn't effective without wrist control and that he shoots from the outside when opponents pressure him. Of all the southpaws Khabib has faced, Conor's style has some similarity to RDA. RDA is a forward pressure fighter, but is too willing to accept clinches(unlike Mcgregor), which got him in trouble in the 3rd round against Khabib. RDA does not have Mcgregor's countering or ability to fight off the backfoot. Michael Johnson throws the left hand, but doesn't have pressuring footwork. Johnson is similar to Barboza, in that they both throw rote combos in reaction to their opponent's entrances. Move in on Johnson and he's throwing the 3-2 into that space. That's how he got Poirier, who marched into Johnson's wheelhouse, missed with a left and got dinged by a 3-2.
The fight will largely ride on who wins the pressuring game early. If Mcgregor can pressure Khabib into the fence and shoot he will have a much higher chance of escaping.(Much more free space behind him, to frame off, sprawl or limp leg). Mcgregor also has an excellent lead left, that could stun Khabib, if he's just standing in space or has his back against the fence. Ultimately, Mcgregor wants Khabib to come forward throwing punches looking to clinch, which may happen after a few failed shots. But then again, Khabib may get the takedown off the first shot. Who knows.
 
To each its own but imho no chance in hell that Conor wins via ko wih a comeback in the 3rd round lol. Out of all possible outcomes this one is the more unlikely.

Conor is 10000 percent more accurate and lethal than Al. His tdd and ground game are weak as fuck whereas Al does have very good wresslin and better ground game overall. Cardio is a big issue for Conor too. That fight indicates nothing cause Al was able to survive the onslaught with good tdd/ wresslin and good cardio, plus the guy is a dog. Conor wont be able to make a comeback past the 2nd round (and thats a stretch) because his cardio is bad and his ground game is not good enough to avoid a royal ass whooping on his back. The damage he wil accumulate will be too much for him to pull a miracle later.

All that said, unlike Al, Conor can ko or hurt Khabib badly and tko him but it needs to happen FAST. He needs to dust Khebab in 2 rounds imo. That or he is toast.
 
So basically you think if he lost two rounds Conor would just quit on the stool?
That's not what I said. I'm saying with Conor's cardio and grappling the way it is, if he's getting absolutely destroyed by Khabib in the first two rounds, I see him finishing Khabib later in the fight as extremely unlikely and I see the by far most likely outcomes as him either getting stopped shortly after those rounds, or it continues to go downhill from there and he loses a lopsided decision.
 
That's not what I said. I'm saying given his cardio and grappling, if he's getting absolutely destroyed by Khabib in the first two rounds, the overwhelmingly likely outcomes are him either getting stopped shortly after those rounds, or it continues to go downhill from there and he loses a lopsided decision.

My take from the fight was even though Khabib was very clearly dominating the first two rounds he was dead tired for the 3rd. That would give Conor the advantage in the 3rd as they would both be tired, but it would start in Conor's wheelhouse.
 
Are you showing this to demonstrate that calling these guys c-level strikers is actually complimentary?

Al had 1 fight in the last 3 years (against diego sanchez) and trained for a 3 round fight. Peak Iaquinta isn't even top 10
 
Back
Top