During the Regan years, the Navy grew to more than 500 ships, nearly double the services’ current fleet size which is approximately 285 ships.
A close look at the Navy’s previous shipbuilding plan showed the service will decommission more ships in the next five years than it will commission. This is happening, in part, because some of the many ships added during the Reagan build-up, such as the Los Angeles-class submarines and Aegis cruisers, are slated to retire, analysts have said.
Many lawmakers and analysts have consistently called for a signifcantly larger Navy, citing the Cold War naval posture.
However, proponents of a smaller Navy consistently made the point that today's ships are far more capable and technologically advanced compared to those of decades ago, precluding the need to match the Reagan-era in terms of sheer size.
Nonetheless, service officials do say the current threat environment, as determined by combatant commanders, service analysts and senior leaders, is such that the service will likely seek an increase above the current plan to hit 355 ships.
The Navy’s long-term fleet plan, articulated in the most recent 2016 Navy 30-Year Shipbuilding plan, called for the service to have 309 ships by 2022 to include: 12 Aircraft Carriers, 97 Large Surface Combatants, 37 Small Surface Combatants, 48 Attack Submarines, 4 Ohio Missile Submarines, 14 Ballistic Missile Submarines, 34 Amphibious Assault Ships, 29 Logistics Force Ships and 34 Support Vessels – bringing the total to 309.
Some of these concerns were also address as far back as 2010, when an independent panel of experts examined the 2009 Quadrennial Defense Review and told the Senate Armed Services Committee that, given the range of anticipated threats, a 346-ship Navy was their recommendation.
“We think the challenge is going to get greater, and we don’t see how you can meet a greater challenge with a diminishing number of ships,” Steven Hadley, co-chair of the QDR review independent panel, told the committee in 2010.
Interestingly, today’s future fleet size Navy plan of 355 ships seems entirely consistent with this prior assessment.
Indeed, challenges cited in 2010 indeed continued to get greater as Navy combatant Commanders consistently report an inability to meet request due to a limited amount of assets.
The Force Structure Assessment also calls for an increase in the amphib fleet from 34 up to 38. Navy and Marine Corps officials explain that the greater use of amphibious assault ships is likely as the Marine Corps continues to shift toward more sea-based operations from its land-based focus during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. At one point, the previous Marine Corp Commandant told Congress that it would likely take as many as 50 amphibious assault ships to fully accommodate commanders’ worldwide need for amphibs.
