RED TIDE 2018: Can Republicans win a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate?

Will Republicans win 60 seats in the 2018 Midterms


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JamesRussler

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Republicans currently hold 51 seats in the Senate, and Democrats hold 49. There are 35 Senate seats up for election in the 2018 midterms, with 26 currently held by Democrats. Now that the “Blue Wave” chatter has died down, conventional wisdom is that Republicans are likely to retain their Senate majority. But do Republicans have a path to winning a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority? They would need to win a net 9 Senate seats, i.e. 18 of the 35 Senate races this term. Polling is actually rather scarce on the individual Senate races. Let’s take a closer look at the 2018 Senate midterm election map:

2018-senate-battleground-map


270towin.com has identified 7 Senate seats as “toss-ups” – seats located in NV, AZ, ND, MO, IN, WV, FL. However, 6 of those 7 seats are in states that went for Trump in 2016. The lone exception, NV, is a quintessential swing state. It went narrowly for Hillary in 2016 (about 2% margin, or roughly 26,000 votes), and Obama before that (twice), but it also went for George W. Bush (twice), George H.W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan (twice). Because Senate elections are state-wide, Trump’s 2016 victory margins cannot be ignored. If Republicans manage to win all 7 of these “toss-up” states, and all other races go as predicted, Republicans will gain 5 seats for a total of 56.

But what about those non-toss-up races? 270towin lists all of the non-toss-up races as “safe,” “likely,” or “lean” either Republican or Democrat. Among those races which favor Democratic are those in MT, MN, OH, MI, WI, PA, and NJ. It should be noted that Trump won all of MT, OH, MI, WI, and PA, although the margins were rather close in those “Blue Wall” states which traditionally vote Democratic. Trump lost MN narrowly (about 1.5 % margin) in an unexpectedly close race. Again, Trump’s 2016 margins cannot be ignored. Regardless of Trump’s national popularity, he helped swing many reliably “blue” states to the “red.” It is true that the local popularity of certain “conservative” Democrats helped Dems hold seats in deep red states (e.g. Jon Tester in MT, Joe Manchin in WV, Heidi Heitkamp in ND, etc.). However, that may not be enough to stave off Red-state anger toward an increasingly Liberal national Democratic Party (FWIW, there has been some whispering that Macnhin may switch parties). Moreover, all Republican-held seats in this election are located in red states.

Lastly, it should be noted that the incumbent Democratic candidate in NJ, Bob Menedez, was the subject of a federal public corruption prosecution which ended in a mistrial (i.e., he was not acquitted). Although the DOJ decided not to refile on Menendez due to the outcome of a recent SCOTUS case, Menendez was severely admonished by the Senate Select Committee on Ethics for conduct which essentially amounted to bribery. Without commenting on the substance of the charges against Senator Menendez, some recent polls suggest it has affected his electoral prospects negatively. One poll put his challenger within 4 points.

The reality is this:
  • If Republicans simply won races in all states which voted for Donald Trump (i.e., a total of 18 races), they would have exactly 60 Senate seats.
  • Additionally, if Republicans won certain winnable races in states which voted for Hillary (i.e., in NJ, MN x 2, and NV), they would have 64 Senate seats.
So is it possible for Republicans to win a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate during the upcoming 2016 midterm elections? Yes. But is it plausible? Well, that depends who you ask. IMO, it’s at least as probable as Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidency in 2016 (maybe even a bit more so).


What do you think? Any insight or predictions about specific 2018 Senate races? Discuss.
 
I’m not too worried about this, it will be red for sure.
 
I’m not too worried about this, it will be red for sure.

I was thinking the other day about how illegal immigration is kind of an existential threat, because it will taint the voting pool irreversibky leftward. Makes me depressed. Most of our immigration problems can be solved with legislation, but we never had that filibuster buster. Now we have a real shot at saving the USA. I’m thinking it’s time to go for it. Summon all the unity we have and make it happen. Makes me motivated. Makes me wanna motivate others.
 
Republicans currently hold 51 seats in the Senate, and Democrats hold 49. There are 35 Senate seats up for election in the 2018 midterms, with 26 currently held by Democrats. Now that the “Blue Wave” chatter has died down, conventional wisdom is that Republicans are likely to retain their Senate majority. But do Republicans have a path to winning a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority? They would need to win a net 9 Senate seats, i.e. 18 of the 35 Senate races this term. Polling is actually rather scarce on the individual Senate races. Let’s take a closer look at the 2018 Senate midterm election map:

2018-senate-battleground-map


270towin.com has identified 7 Senate seats as “toss-ups” – seats located in NV, AZ, ND, MO, IN, WV, FL. However, 6 of those 7 seats are in states that went for Trump in 2016. The lone exception, NV, is a quintessential swing state. It went narrowly for Hillary in 2016 (about 2% margin, or roughly 26,000 votes), and Obama before that (twice), but it also went for George W. Bush (twice), George H.W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan (twice). Because Senate elections are state-wide, Trump’s 2016 victory margins cannot be ignored. If Republicans manage to win all 7 of these “toss-up” states, and all other races go as predicted, Republicans will gain 5 seats for a total of 56.

But what about those non-toss-up races? 270towin lists all of the non-toss-up races as “safe,” “likely,” or “lean” either Republican or Democrat. Among those races which favor Democratic are those in MT, MN, OH, MI, WI, PA, and NJ. It should be noted that Trump won all of MT, OH, MI, WI, and PA, although the margins were rather close in those “Blue Wall” states which traditionally vote Democratic. Trump lost MN narrowly (about 1.5 % margin) in an unexpectedly close race. Again, Trump’s 2016 margins cannot be ignored. Regardless of Trump’s national popularity, he helped swing many reliably “blue” states to the “red.” It is true that the local popularity of certain “conservative” Democrats helped Dems hold seats in deep red states (e.g. Jon Tester in MT, Joe Manchin in WV, Heidi Heitkamp in ND, etc.). However, that may not be enough to stave off Red-state anger toward an increasingly Liberal national Democratic Party (FWIW, there has been some whispering that Macnhin may switch parties). Moreover, all Republican-held seats in this election are located in red states.

Lastly, it should be noted that the incumbent Democratic candidate in NJ, Bob Menedez, was the subject of a federal public corruption prosecution which ended in a mistrial (i.e., he was not acquitted). Although the DOJ decided not to refile on Menendez due to the outcome of a recent SCOTUS case, Menendez was severely admonished by the Senate Select Committee on Ethics for conduct which essentially amounted to bribery. Without commenting on the substance of the charges against Senator Menendez, some recent polls suggest it has affected his electoral prospects negatively. One poll put his challenger within 4 points.

The reality is this:
  • If Republicans simply won races in all states which voted for Donald Trump (i.e., a total of 18 races), they would have exactly 60 Senate seats.
  • Additionally, if Republicans won certain winnable races in states which voted for Hillary (i.e., in NJ, MN x 2, and NV), they would have 64 Senate seats.
So is it possible for Republicans to win a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate during the upcoming 2016 midterm elections? Yes. But is it plausible? Well, that depends who you ask. IMO, it’s at least as probable as Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidency in 2016 (maybe even a bit more so).


What do you think? Any insight or predictions about specific 2018 Senate races? Discuss.

My prediction: the election will be a slaughter for incumbents. Considering the Republicans have more seats, that doesn't spell good things for them.
 
I was thinking the other day about how illegal immigration is kind of an existential threat, because it will taint the voting pool irreversibky leftward. Makes me depressed. Most of our immigration problems can be solved with legislation, but we never had that filibuster buster. Now we have a real shot at saving the USA. I’m thinking it’s time to go for it. Summon all the unity we have and make it happen. Makes me motivated. Makes me wanna motivate others.

Latino Illegal immigrants are economically left, and socially right. Why do you insist on talking about them, like they are Wahabbiists?
 
Latino Illegal immigrants are economically left, and socially right. Why do you insist on talking about them, like they are Wahabbiists?

Economic Leftism is pretty much the fatal snakebite IMO. But regardless of that, the main problem is the fact that they’re illegal, because that’s an illegitimate way to change the country’s composition. Any changes to a country’s political, economic, ethnic, racial, religious, or social composition must be entirely voluntary.
 
ND isn’t going to change. Kramer (R) and Heitkamp (D) will both get re-elected. Both won by an overwhelming majority in the primaries.
 
My prediction: the election will be a slaughter for incumbents. Considering the Republicans have more seats, that doesn't spell good things for them.

Let’s focus the discussion on the Senate (the topic of the thread). Republicans are defending 9 seats, and Dems are defending 26. If incumbency is a negative, that would hurt Dems. But I doubt that premise, because I don’t see the outrage. Things are objectively pretty good - certainly not the disaster Dems and NeverTrump predicted. The big question is whether those Rust Belt states which broke for Trump are satisfied with his performance. At least 7 seats (MN x 2, OH, WI, MI, PA, IN) are in this region. My sense is that Dems’ immigration talk is especially unpopular in these states. The open borders message plays better in the SouthWest.
 
Got any insight on these USA Senate races?

No insides. But I think the Republicans are going to lose a few seats.
Just in general midterm election usually brings out more people from the Party that just lost the election.
And I don't think the Trump economic factor caries over enough for the Republicans. That will help Trump in 2020 a lot.
The Republicans also have the issue that you have a lot of Roy Moore and other ''unorthodox'' candidates getting newfound support due to Trump winning as an outsider. I think that will damage the Republicans in some races. Because there will be a lot of infighting within the Party.
 
Doesn't matter if they win filibuster proof of the Senate (which they won't). Republicans can't even agree on everything. They're split with those retarded 'freedom caucus' idiots who are way too far right.

Dems are winning the House anyway, and that's all they need to stall Trumps agenda until 2020 and send him crazy.
Also holding the potential to call for impeachment if Muellers Russia investigation turns up any solid evidence linking Trump to election meddling. As Republicans in congress are too whipped to do anything and stand up to him.

'The Blue Wave has died down' is false.
That's just wishful thinking from you.
Too many Republicans are planning to retire and more to come.
 
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