Punk vs Jackson. Free money?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Lando, May 31, 2018.

  1. Lando

    Lando Yellow Belt

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    First post. Been lurking for years and only recently starting looking at this subforum, lots of good posts and analysis to be found, made $1200 on Lina Lansberg after reading a good thread here so thanks everyone for the advice

    Punk vs Jackson strikes me as being a predetermined outcome. I dont see any way punk can win.
    If any of you disagree with the following, please let me know as my holiday money is going on this fight :)

    Jackson is 33, Punk is 39. From what I’ve read Jackson has had legit KO’s in boxing, and has been involved in mma for over ten years, so not only will he dominate the standup (I literally dont think its possible punk clips him after watching him sparring) but his cardio will be doubtless better.
    I cant find any videos of Jackson wrestling or rolling but I’m assuming it’s at least passable, I saw a recent video of punk on the ground and he’s hopeless, and probably not explosive enough to get Jackson down.

    This is one of Jacksons fights. He lost, but he looks sharp with decent technique and skill, also seems like a quick starter.


    Heres Punk sparring (most recent I can find)


    As the odds stand Jackson is paying 1.43, and if the odds dont change I’ll put down around 3500 to win 5K

    So my questions are -

    - Will Jackson pay better as it gets closer to the fight, or should I put it down now
    - Does anyone have any footage of Jackson rolling/wrestling or any recent similar footage of punk doing the same
    - Any other outliers that could affect the fight?

    Cheers
     

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  2. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    You're better off investing that 3500 elsewhere. Fight has way too many unknown variables to have a good read on. Betting on it is really a degen play. For what its worth, I know a couple of well respected gamblers who have bet on Punk already
     
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  3. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    I'd find a better fight to bet or bet the dog. This is such low level, neither deserve to be -250
     
  4. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    What well respected gambler is betting this fight for anything other than entertainment/degeneracy?!
     
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  5. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Jackson is MOST LIKELY better than Punk by a lot, just as you are saying. But how the hell can you really know that with so little to go on to verify it?

    The free money was on Gall round 1 vs Punk, which I absolutely hammered and made bank on. Gall has legit grappling chops and you didn't need to be a genius to figure out he'd most likely get Punk down early and from there just obliterate him. Which is what happened. But Jackson isn't Gall, so who knows for sure if the skill disparity is huge or not?

    I'd bet Jacskson maybe -150 or better, but even then probably somewhat small. I'll pass at current odds. Like I said, he **probably** wins and makes it look easy, but not enough tape to really have a great feel for where he is skill-wise.
     
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  6. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Ones that apparently have inside knowledge of Punk and strides he's made recently lol. Yeah... sounds like bullshit but hey, could be true
     
  7. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Hey, there's literally zero chance he could look WORSE than he did vs Gall, so there's that, right LOL?

    To be fair, Gall has legit top tier grappling chops. Yeah, he was an MMA noob with only one pro fight prior to fighting Punk, but the fact he was hanging with literally the best grapplers on the planet in tournaments should have told everyone what was gonna happen in that fight. Jackson isn't anywhere near that level, he's not even in that universe.

    That's not to say I advocate a play on Punk here, even at decent dog odds. I think he most likely gets smashed again. But I have a feeling it's not gonna look nearly as bad as his first fight, where he literally had zero chance whatsoever.
     
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  8. Lando

    Lando Yellow Belt

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    What I’m going on here is the footage I have available.
    Jackson is rubbish, but he’s at least amatuer level. I’m assuming he can at least wrestle to a minimum standard that you see in local fights. (If anyone has footage to prove otherwise please post)

    Heres a clip of punk being submitted after 2 years of apparent training.


    Now if thats after 2 years, 1 more isnt doing diddly squat. He obviously lacks the ability to learn and apply these skills at his age.

    WME isnt going to risk a fixed fight. So I can envision punk winning in only 2 ways

    - Messy scramble/takedown to submission
    - Points after Jackson counter-fights too conservatively

    Both of these seem highly unlikely.
     
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  9. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    I don't think it's unreasonable to think Punk gets a takedown. Who knows what happens then
     
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  10. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Lot of jumpcuts in there, hard to really tell where Punk's grappling is at from 'Punk gets takedown, jump cut to Punk being subbed', as opposed to getting a proper run-through. I think it's a good sign that he's actually training properly. Also I'd probably take 'random coach at Roufussport' over Jackson at even money.
     
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  11. Karmello

    Karmello Purple Belt

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    Jackson has professional boxing and kickboxing fights and he knocked some dudes out there. So I guess if this stays on the feet Punk is going to get fucked up, but who knows what will happen when this goes to the mat.
     
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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Yeah, my point is that's not much to go on to make a big bet. If you are a big time player and 3500 isn't a big play for you, that's one thing. To most people that is SIGNIFICANT action, and I cannot imagine putting that much in play on this fight.
     
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  13. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    CM Punk is not very athletic either. I will be betting Jackson, but I wouldn't bury a lot of money on him as he's pretty much an unknown.
     
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  14. Bubzeh

    Bubzeh Fighting Brexit

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    Can't really see past Jackson either... But at 4/9 it's too much of a risk.
     
  15. VitorBelfoTRT

    VitorBelfoTRT Purple Belt

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    Wow. Punk looks like dog shit in that sparring. Itd be safe to bet on Jackson to be honest.
     
  16. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    The UFC has absolutely nothing to benefit from if Jackson wins this fight.
    Just keep that in mind when throwing large amounts of $$$ on this fight ;)
     
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  17. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Agreed. This would be the last fight I'd trust if I wanted to put money on it.
     
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  18. rille31

    rille31 Brown Belt

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    Punk lasted 2min while Jackson didnt even last 1, they both suck

    Do we even know if Jackson been training mma recently?
     
  19. joenewbie

    joenewbie White Belt

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    Jackson is the favorite so do you mean you would be putting down 5K to win 3500? Sharkey and pytycrys have a point to think about. I don't think these fights are fixed and I'm not going to start a discussion about it but if the fight is close and goes to a decision, that decision could be....questionable. I bet large sums too, not 5K but enough that it stings a bit when you lose a split decision on low level fighters. My advice would be to look at other fights on this card, or any of the cards coming up and bet another fight without a celebrity in it. I have taken a break from UFC for a few weeks so I'm not up to speed on the upcoming events and can't give you any advice regarding any "free money" upcoming fights if there are any.
     
  20. Lando

    Lando Yellow Belt

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    Yeah, after reading a few posts its scared me off a little in case of a decision. Ended up putting it on a multi for Benavidez and Eubanks at even odds, so hopefully Joseph’s not too rusty. A lot bigger than I usually bet but decent odds lately
     

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