Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, May 28, 2018.
damn ez money again
Oh wow! I love this sport.
Holy shit made bank tonight, hit 2 guys at +925!!!!
Man that's why it's insanity laying that insane juice on these fights.
Good job guys, can’t believe I missed these. Jake is 139 years old.
both -1400 faves lost. lmfao.
Yeah, I get that, but losing to Ray Cooper like THAT is unforgivable lol.
Insane. Two over -1000 faves, same card back to back. Go out in flames. Has that ever happened? Anywhere? Nuts!
I fucking love PFL. Hit both huge dogs. Seems like there are a couple big dogs barking every week.
Haha. In addition to the degenerate enjoyment, it is a well put together show.
Funny thing is, I didn't even consider Cooper at +400 or whatever earlier today. People just keep hammering the "name" guys and eventually you look at it and say "What the hell are people doing? Shit, these odds are what Jon Jones vs Donald Cerrone should be if they could get that sanctioned. Not in fights like these. Okay, I'll take a guy who should be +350 at +925 I guess..."
And then sometimes the huge underdog looks like he should be -1400, like Cooper did. Because Jake aged overnight and should retire.
Limited action tonight but it paid off for me with fast stoppages by Joao Zeferino and John Howard both. I missed out on the huge upsets in the co-main and main events but still ended up with 4.48 units profit for the card.
PFL 3 Results Risk $520.00
John Howard (+170) vs Gasan Umalatov $100.00 for $170.00= $170.00
John Howard (+130) vs Gasan Umalatov $100.00 for $130.00= $130.00
Joao Zeferino (-115) vs Paul Bradley ~$130.00 for ~$113.04= ~$113.04
Joao Zeferino (-125) vs Paul Bradley $125.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Jonatin Westin (+185) vs Bojan Velickovic ~$65.00 for ~$120.25= -~$65.00
Total Profit= $448.04
Didn’t know a single thing about this event but tailed some of you and landed a little wager for myself tonight....
Cool, big kiss MWAH!! Looking forward to this weekends events
Hit Gamzatov, Bradley and Howard.
Came out +1.65u
Shocked/annoyed with myself for not putting anything on those mammoth odds dogs. That’s usually my thing to blind bet insane prices... wtf is wrong with me.
Having not slept in 2 days I fell asleep early but I put .25u on cooper and kusch LOLOLOL cashed 2 +925 dogs. Hahahaha gj thread.
Lol was way off on Bradley, but still came out 3u ahead thanks to people betting -600 favs up to -1400. Hit Howard, Kusch and Cooper. From now on I think I will watch no tape, wait until lines are fully juiced and then just sprinkle on all the dogs.
No kidding. After last night it's gonna be tough not to just blind bet any dog +700 or better. MMA isn't boxing. These huge spreads very rarely are justified.
I think the Kusch fight showed it more than the Cooper fight in hindsight. Cooper was just clearly way way better than Jake. Younger, more athletic, faster. Jake is old and done. Would you bet Jake at evens against him after that prolonged one-sided beatdown last night? Wasn't a fluke right? The better guy won.
But Kusch, while in the fight, clearly lost rd 1. But that's the thing with MMA- the small gloves and ability to quickly capitalize and finish means it's a sport where upsets are simply going to happen fairly often. I don't really think Kusch is better than Khabib's cousin, but at +925...c'mon. You just need him to be good enough to reasonably have a shot. Which at that level, most guys are. I hope people are dumb enough to keep parlaying name guys at these moronic odds. I'd assume most will catch on and we won't see such wide lines going forward, but I hope I'm wrong.
Yeah, I did not have time to watch tape on Cooper, but betting Jake at -400 for anyone is insane, never mind what the number ended up at. With Kusch, I didn't necessarily think he'd win, but with his Sambo background, he would be upright more often than not, giving him at least the chance of inflicting a KO with his heavy hands. Then yeah, after RD 1, Nurmagomedov comes out with improved striking, but I am feeling better and better as Kusch shakes off takedown attempts that the dozen guys before him couldn't, and I patted myself on the back and told myself 'even if he loses, my capping was on'.
All 4 guys are in the same weight class, so that makes the future lines very interesting.
It's funny you said that regarding Kusch and being able to keep it standing. I literally thought the EXACT same thing. I was like "Well, he's gonna lose most likely but he's giving himself a chance. I was on the right side here 100%."
I even posted here after rd 1 something like "Khabib's cousin rd 1 obviously but he sure doesn't look like a -1300 favorite or whatever".
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