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Some random guy (who shall not be named) messaged me and asked me for my breakdowns, predictions and win probabilities on a few fights because I was a "clever and balanced poster." I wrote long, detailed paragraphs and it I'll post them here because why fucking not. Life is short and I need approval from random dudes on the internet to stimulate my sexual fantasies. Anyways he asked me for my detailed thoughts on:
1 Werdum vs Jones
2 Stipe vs DC
3 Werdum vs Overeem 3
4 Jones vs DC 2
5 Jacare vs Rockhold 2
So here they are:
I'm assuming every fight is a 5 rounder btw.
1. I give Jones the slight edge in: striking, wrestling and the clinch game. Obviously Werdum is a far more accomplished submission grappler, but the biggest X-factor I see in this fight is Jon's underrated jiu-jitsu. He's stated recently that he's been working on his jiu-jitsu non stop with high level black belts, plus he has the most submissions in LHW history, so as crazy as it may sound, it wouldn't be out of the realm in my estimation to see Jon beat Werdum up standing before taking him down, softening him up with elbows, catching him out of position and submitting him. I'd never count out Werdum though; even though he's not a hard puncher by Heavyweight standards, he had enough power to keep Cain at a distance and pick him apart. Plus, he is extremely well conditioned.
If I was to pick, I see Jon beating Werdum by decision.
Chances of winning: Jon Jones 58% Fabricio Werdum 42%
2. I know many in the MMA community would give the edge to Stipe, or at the very least believe it would be a highly competitive fight, but I believe DC has the perfect skill set to beat Stipe. To be honest, I've always believed that Stipe would have a short reign as the champion once he fought a high level HW in their prime. That doesn't necessarily mean that Dos Santos would beat him, as JDS' loss to Overeem proved that the wars with Cain had taken a toll on his mind and chin. If Alistar Overeem, weak chin and all, had ground and pounded Stipe instead of attempting a guillotine, I believe he would be the current holder of the UFC belt. DC has underrated power, as he knocked out a prime Bigfoot on TRT who had just finished mauling Fedor, and even though he wasn't terribly impressive in his fight with Roy Nelson, that is the first time I ever saw Roy back up that much in a fight. I believe DC's chin would definitely hold up against Stipe's boxing, and I believe this fight would start by the two exchanging in the center of the octagon for the entirety of the first round, and then I believe DC would start to mix up his striking with takedown attempts that would put Stipe on his back eventually, and I believe DC would be ultra aggressive in his ground and pound, which would lead to an eventual TKO victory. Many people have the wrong impression of DC's ground and pound from the Anderson Silva fight, which to DC was a fight that he had everything to lose and nothing to gain. DC has proven in the past, especially in his Heavyweight days to have brutal ground and pound, and opponents are rarely able to get back to their feet after being taken down by DC because his positional control is so sublime. Now, for Stipe to win he would have to circle around, pick DC apart with his jab, and move a great deal to avoid both DC's takedown attempts and his dirty boxing from the clinch.
If I was to pick, I see DC beating Stipe by a 3rd round TKO.
Chances of winning: Daniel Cormier 63% Stipe Miocic 37%
3. This is awfully simple to me, I can't see Werdum taking Overeem down, and Overeem would not be stupid enough to jump into Werdum's guard if he dropped him, like Fedor did. This was proven in their second and most recent fight, where Overeem continually refused to engage with Werdum on the ground even after he had dropped him multiple times. The only occasions where Overeem spent any time in Werdum's guard in that fight was when Werdum clinched with Overeem and pulled him into his guard. Even if Werdum somehow takes Overeem down or pulls guard on him, Overeem is a nightmare to submit, and even won the 2005 ADCC European trials. On the feet, Werdum is a vastly improved striker and couple that with Overeem's diminished chin, it is possible that Werdum could knock him out. However, despite that possibility, any human being with a brain would pick a former K-1 Grand Prix winner, even without "horse meat"
to outstrike a man who hails from a jiu-jitsu background.
If I was to predict, I see Overeem beating Werdum by decision.
Chances of winning: Alistair Overeem 65% Fabricio Werdum 35%
4. Looking at it from a skill set perspective:
Grappling - Even though Jon outwrestled DC in their first fight, I believe the wrestling is equal (DC is obviously a better pure wrestler but Jon's ability to set up takedown attempts with strikes at the most unpredictable moments is the equalizer). I see their jiu-jitsu as being identical, maybe a slight edge to Jon, but not enough to make a significant difference.
Striking/Clinch fighting - Edge goes to DC, as crazy as that may sound. Even though Jon was effective from the outside in their first fight, DC's ability to close the distance and hit Jon with uppercuts from the clinch was very impressive and unexpected. I've no doubt DC has improved his striking tremendously since then, and combined with the facts that DC's chin has held up well against tremendous punishment, and that DC hits harder than Jon does, I see DC being able to inflict more damage to Jon than vice versa if the fight is on the feet.
Conditioning: Even though Jon is the one who hasn't fought in almost 18 months, I see Jon having a much easier time making weight than DC, and I believe DC's cardio will suffer from this. Not to mention DC is already 38 years of age, while Jon is at the peak of his physical prime. Conditioning edge goes to Jon Jones.
If was to predict, I see DC winning by a razor close decision, setting up an epic trilogy fight.
Chances of winning: Daniel Cormier 51% Jon Jones 49%
5. Similarly to the Werdum - Overeem fight, Luke Rockhold is too well-rounded to be easily submitted or taken down by Jacare. It could happen, but it is unlikely in my opinion. Knowing Jacare, I believe the difference would be Jacare spending a great deal of time working on his boxing following his loss to Whittaker, and I believe this improvement in his boxing would be the difference in this fight. I would pick Luke to beat Jacare in a straight up boxing or kickboxing match, but in the context of an MMA fight, Rockhold's diminished chin opens the door for his second consecutive knockout loss. Their first fight was fairly competitive despite Jacare not being able to utilise his jiu-jitsu, as well as being a far less experienced striker than he is today. There have been many occasions in MMA history where a far superior, more experienced striker has been knocked out on the feet by a grappler, i.e. Gonzaga KOing Cro Cop or Silva losing to Weidman, and one of the reasons why these upsets happen is because of the element of surprise. I believe Rockhold would approach this fight thinking Jacare would attempt to take him down at every turn, and I also believe this would open the door for Jacare to throw an overhand right, or a well timed left hook to knock Rockhold out. Of course, if Luke approaches the fight with an open mindset, it is very possible that he could win this fight by either knocking out or outpointing Jacare.
If I was to predict, I see Jacare knocking Rockhold out in the 2nd round.
Chances of winning: Jacare 53% Rockhold 47%
1 Werdum vs Jones
2 Stipe vs DC
3 Werdum vs Overeem 3
4 Jones vs DC 2
5 Jacare vs Rockhold 2
So here they are:
I'm assuming every fight is a 5 rounder btw.
1. I give Jones the slight edge in: striking, wrestling and the clinch game. Obviously Werdum is a far more accomplished submission grappler, but the biggest X-factor I see in this fight is Jon's underrated jiu-jitsu. He's stated recently that he's been working on his jiu-jitsu non stop with high level black belts, plus he has the most submissions in LHW history, so as crazy as it may sound, it wouldn't be out of the realm in my estimation to see Jon beat Werdum up standing before taking him down, softening him up with elbows, catching him out of position and submitting him. I'd never count out Werdum though; even though he's not a hard puncher by Heavyweight standards, he had enough power to keep Cain at a distance and pick him apart. Plus, he is extremely well conditioned.
If I was to pick, I see Jon beating Werdum by decision.
Chances of winning: Jon Jones 58% Fabricio Werdum 42%
2. I know many in the MMA community would give the edge to Stipe, or at the very least believe it would be a highly competitive fight, but I believe DC has the perfect skill set to beat Stipe. To be honest, I've always believed that Stipe would have a short reign as the champion once he fought a high level HW in their prime. That doesn't necessarily mean that Dos Santos would beat him, as JDS' loss to Overeem proved that the wars with Cain had taken a toll on his mind and chin. If Alistar Overeem, weak chin and all, had ground and pounded Stipe instead of attempting a guillotine, I believe he would be the current holder of the UFC belt. DC has underrated power, as he knocked out a prime Bigfoot on TRT who had just finished mauling Fedor, and even though he wasn't terribly impressive in his fight with Roy Nelson, that is the first time I ever saw Roy back up that much in a fight. I believe DC's chin would definitely hold up against Stipe's boxing, and I believe this fight would start by the two exchanging in the center of the octagon for the entirety of the first round, and then I believe DC would start to mix up his striking with takedown attempts that would put Stipe on his back eventually, and I believe DC would be ultra aggressive in his ground and pound, which would lead to an eventual TKO victory. Many people have the wrong impression of DC's ground and pound from the Anderson Silva fight, which to DC was a fight that he had everything to lose and nothing to gain. DC has proven in the past, especially in his Heavyweight days to have brutal ground and pound, and opponents are rarely able to get back to their feet after being taken down by DC because his positional control is so sublime. Now, for Stipe to win he would have to circle around, pick DC apart with his jab, and move a great deal to avoid both DC's takedown attempts and his dirty boxing from the clinch.
If I was to pick, I see DC beating Stipe by a 3rd round TKO.
Chances of winning: Daniel Cormier 63% Stipe Miocic 37%
3. This is awfully simple to me, I can't see Werdum taking Overeem down, and Overeem would not be stupid enough to jump into Werdum's guard if he dropped him, like Fedor did. This was proven in their second and most recent fight, where Overeem continually refused to engage with Werdum on the ground even after he had dropped him multiple times. The only occasions where Overeem spent any time in Werdum's guard in that fight was when Werdum clinched with Overeem and pulled him into his guard. Even if Werdum somehow takes Overeem down or pulls guard on him, Overeem is a nightmare to submit, and even won the 2005 ADCC European trials. On the feet, Werdum is a vastly improved striker and couple that with Overeem's diminished chin, it is possible that Werdum could knock him out. However, despite that possibility, any human being with a brain would pick a former K-1 Grand Prix winner, even without "horse meat"
to outstrike a man who hails from a jiu-jitsu background.If I was to predict, I see Overeem beating Werdum by decision.
Chances of winning: Alistair Overeem 65% Fabricio Werdum 35%
4. Looking at it from a skill set perspective:
Grappling - Even though Jon outwrestled DC in their first fight, I believe the wrestling is equal (DC is obviously a better pure wrestler but Jon's ability to set up takedown attempts with strikes at the most unpredictable moments is the equalizer). I see their jiu-jitsu as being identical, maybe a slight edge to Jon, but not enough to make a significant difference.
Striking/Clinch fighting - Edge goes to DC, as crazy as that may sound. Even though Jon was effective from the outside in their first fight, DC's ability to close the distance and hit Jon with uppercuts from the clinch was very impressive and unexpected. I've no doubt DC has improved his striking tremendously since then, and combined with the facts that DC's chin has held up well against tremendous punishment, and that DC hits harder than Jon does, I see DC being able to inflict more damage to Jon than vice versa if the fight is on the feet.
Conditioning: Even though Jon is the one who hasn't fought in almost 18 months, I see Jon having a much easier time making weight than DC, and I believe DC's cardio will suffer from this. Not to mention DC is already 38 years of age, while Jon is at the peak of his physical prime. Conditioning edge goes to Jon Jones.
If was to predict, I see DC winning by a razor close decision, setting up an epic trilogy fight.
Chances of winning: Daniel Cormier 51% Jon Jones 49%
5. Similarly to the Werdum - Overeem fight, Luke Rockhold is too well-rounded to be easily submitted or taken down by Jacare. It could happen, but it is unlikely in my opinion. Knowing Jacare, I believe the difference would be Jacare spending a great deal of time working on his boxing following his loss to Whittaker, and I believe this improvement in his boxing would be the difference in this fight. I would pick Luke to beat Jacare in a straight up boxing or kickboxing match, but in the context of an MMA fight, Rockhold's diminished chin opens the door for his second consecutive knockout loss. Their first fight was fairly competitive despite Jacare not being able to utilise his jiu-jitsu, as well as being a far less experienced striker than he is today. There have been many occasions in MMA history where a far superior, more experienced striker has been knocked out on the feet by a grappler, i.e. Gonzaga KOing Cro Cop or Silva losing to Weidman, and one of the reasons why these upsets happen is because of the element of surprise. I believe Rockhold would approach this fight thinking Jacare would attempt to take him down at every turn, and I also believe this would open the door for Jacare to throw an overhand right, or a well timed left hook to knock Rockhold out. Of course, if Luke approaches the fight with an open mindset, it is very possible that he could win this fight by either knocking out or outpointing Jacare.
If I was to predict, I see Jacare knocking Rockhold out in the 2nd round.
Chances of winning: Jacare 53% Rockhold 47%
