This is a 5 round fight, right? I favor Lee heavily in the first 2, perhaps even 3 rounds he's a lot quicker and physically stronger than Chiesa, Chiesa is very hittable too. But Chiesa is a guy like Ferguson who gets better as the fight goes on, Kevin Lee usually relies on his takedowns, grappling and top control in fights which may not be there for him in this fight, especially in the later rounds.
I think either Lee takes it within 3 rounds, or Chiesa finds a finish in the 3rd or 4th after breaking Lee with a relentless pace and finally being able to create successful openings for him to attack. If it goes to a decision I think it will be a close, back and forth fight.