This might help some understand the nuances of chances / guessing / estimates / inaccuracies involved in the split second decisions made by BOTH fighters during an exchange (not only this happens in the attacker's movement but also in the defender's - so you could have aimed wrongly but still hit the target due to your opponent unexpectedly moving to that spot.) Checkout what Moraes' said in his post fight speech after brutal knee k.o. over Sterling: at 1:17 And Better still at 1:10 mark here: I'm not surprised ! Reminder: Cigano - known for his boxing - when commentating calls wild punch exchanges "lottery". Obviously it's a hyperbole but the point is that you can't see everything coming and there's not enough time to think - besides your own level of skill and inaccuracy at power and speed, so you have to make decisions uncertain of the outcome and based on heuristics - a very interesting and useful concept. You might want to google "heuristics" for more.