Political Predictions Thread

waiguoren said:
@Jack V Savage

Do you disagree with any of my predictions?
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We don't think the same way, I guess. Here are your predictions:

My predictions
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:

  1. Trump will not lose the 2020 Republican primary contest.
  2. If Trump makes it to election day 2020, he will win re-election.
  3. Trump will not be indicted for any crimes while in office.
  4. Robert Mueller's investigation will not conclude that Trump attempted to offer US policy concessions to Russia in exchange for access to the hacked DNC e-mails.
  5. Martin O'Malley, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand will all announce candidacies for president for 2020.
  6. Cory Booker will not be the Democratic nominee in 2020.
  7. The Republicans will hold the Senate in the 2018 election.
  8. Trump will not be removed from office via political means (e.g., 25th Amendment, impeachment+removal)
  9. During the Democratic primary race for the 2020 US presidential election, one of Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Martin O'Malley or Bernie Sanders or their respective presidential campaigns will criticize Kirsten Gillibrand publicly for her past positions on illegal immigration.
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Your first one is less of a lock than it usually is (a sitting president hasn't lost the nomination since 1884, and an elected president hasn't lost the nomination since 1852), but I'd still give it a 95% or so chance of being right.

The second one is tough to judge. The incumbent has a big advantage generally, especially if the economy is doing well, but Trump is unusually bad and unpopular considering the state of the economy (I don't think people appreciate how fortunate he's been--his still-low approval ratings are being propped up by the economy). If there's a downturn, he's toast. If not, he could still lose. Since we don't know what the economy will be doing in 2020, that's hard to predict, but I'd bet against him at even odds. Your confidence is just wishful thinking.

The third one is a matter of legal controversy that I can't weigh in on. Plus, while evidence that would justify an indictment for someone who isn't the president is considerably more likely than not, it's not 100%.

I don't see any basis for judging your fourth one. I think, again, you're letting tribalism cloud your judgment.

Your fifth one is the kind of prediction that people who don't really get probability make a lot. If three of them have a 95% chance of running and one of them has a 60% chance, your odds are barely better than even. I don't really know the chances for them individually, but I'd guess that they're all better than even chances.

Booker probably doesn't win, true. At this point, no one would be favored over the field collectively, and Booker isn't even the frontrunner (last I saw, five other candidates had better odds than him, none of them close to even).

I believe Republicans are favored to keep the Senate at this point, though the odds are very close. I don't know enough to challenge the consensus here.

I've said from the beginning that I have zero respect for the integrity of Republicans in Congress (or obviously in the Executive Branch). Public opinion could swing them, but Trump was right when he said he could murder someone and not lose you guys as supporters. So I'd agree with this one.

That last one is impossible to predict.
 
Trump won’t get Impeached

He will finish his term.

After the mid term elections the Republicans will still hold both houses.
 
bobgeese said:
<mma4>


That is a bold call.

Right or wrong, hespect.
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As much as I would like the dems to take both houses I don’t see it happening. I have slightly more confidence in the R’s than Dems.
<8>
 
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Democrats will drink the Kool Aid after the 2020 election

College campuses will implode
 
Joe Biden will run for the Democrat nomination, win, and none of the MSM will never mention his history of innappropriatley touching women and children.

Creepy-Joe-Biden.jpg


Trump will bring attention to it weeks before the 2020 election, forcing the MSM to cover it by excusing it and criticizing Trump for bringing it up, calling it desperate.

Trump will win reelection by a far wider margin than the MSM predict.
 
In the next 5 years, this whole Trump Mueller BS will be the last of anyone's worries.

Just sayin'
 
GearSolidMetal said:
Joe Biden will run for the Democrat nomination, win, and none of the MSM will never mention his history of innappropriatley touching women and children.

Creepy-Joe-Biden.jpg


Trump will bring attention to it weeks before the 2020 election, forcing the MSM to cover it by excusing it and criticizing Trump for bringing it up, calling it desperate.

Trump will win reelection by a far wider margin than the MSM predict.
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Please check the OP and let me know if the first part is fairly represented.

For the second prediction, please specify a number of weeks. Also, would a single pundit excusing Biden's alleged behavior and calling Trump "desperate" be sufficient, or do you want to set a higher threshold (e.g., three pundits, or at least one CNN pundit)?

For the third part, please specify what you mean by the election prediction of the MSM.
 
waiguoren said:
Please check the OP and let me know if the first part is fairly represented.

For the second prediction, please specify a number of weeks. Also, would a single pundit excusing Biden's alleged behavior and calling Trump "desperate" be sufficient, or do you want to set a higher threshold (e.g., three pundits, or at least one CNN pundit)?

For the third part, please specify what you mean by the election prediction of the MSM.
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You mean these two?
  1. Trump will not lose the 2020 Republican primary contest.
  2. If Trump makes it to election day 2020, he will win re-election.

As for the amount of weeks, who knows? Could be one week, could be ten weeks, but Trump will wait until it's most strategic... just like the Democrats waited to 'leak' the "Grab em by the pussy" tape just before early voting started, in 2016.

It'll be several pundits, employed by both MSM outlets and Biden campaign reps.
 
GearSolidMetal said:
You mean these two?
  1. Trump will not lose the 2020 Republican primary contest.
  2. If Trump makes it to election day 2020, he will win re-election.

As for the amount of weeks, who knows? Could be one week, could be ten weeks, but Trump will wait until it's most strategic... just like the Democrats waited to 'leak' the "Grab em by the pussy" tape just before early voting started, in 2016.

It'll be several pundits, employed by both MSM outlets and Biden campaign reps.
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I am trying to add your predictions to the OP.

"Trump will bring attention to it weeks before the 2020 election,"

Please specify at least a maximum number of weeks, e.g., "Within 10 weeks of election day, Trump will mention Biden's alleged inappropriate touching publicly."

I will update the pundit part after I get clarification on the other part.
 
waiguoren said:
I am trying to add your predictions to the OP.

"Trump will bring attention to it weeks before the 2020 election,"

Please specify at least a maximum number of weeks, e.g., "Within 10 weeks of election day, Trump will mention Biden's alleged inappropriate touching publicly."

I will update the pundit part after I get clarification on the other part.
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What I mean by the MSM prediction polls is, the MSM (CNN, Network Channels, NYT, etc) in recent history, always conduct polls projecting the Democrat winning.

1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

Each one.

Yet, in three of those years, they were incorrect. They'll project it again in 2020.
 
The pee tape will finally leak and Trumptards will claim it to be fake

Trump will win in 2020 then disband the constitution and declare himself king

America will begin watering it's crops with Gatorade because of electrolytes
 
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Dirt Road Soldier said:
The democrats hopeful blue wave will be a ripple, wins in special elections will bolster them but poor turnout (due to decent employment numbers and economy) will kill their hopes and dreams. Republicans barely hold onto control of congress.

Booker, Harris, and probably 3-4 other progressive hopefuls vie for the candidacy for the 2020 Dem ticket, end up in a hard fight with a well established democratic "sure-thing". At least one celebrity runs, plays spoiler knocking weaker favorites out. Ticket will be the "sure thing" candidate (Biden?) with a progressive VP (Guessing Harris). A divided democratic party loses the general, but gains control of the Senate. House stays under GOP control. Trump fails to accomplish much for the next 4 years. Two SCOTUS seats end up vacant because of this, as the democrats stonewall his appointees in a revenge move for Obamas pick never getting a vote.

2024 rolls around, both sides end up with clown cars packed with hopefulls. Both parties make massive concessions to get a canidate chosen to appease fringe groups, apathetic voters skew polls all over the place. Whichever party wins the white house loses congress. Lame duck single term president, both parties see massive upheaval as parties oust old guard holdouts and fringe lunatics, both parties move closer to center to begin attempting to fix the disasters that were caused by the last 4 presidencies.

(This is all wishfull thinking honestly. No idea whats going to happen.)
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Do you want any of these to be official predictions?
 
@waiguoren

A new prediction from Farmer Br0wn that has a 100% chance on being true, and will likely happen on this very forum:

Because Trump derangement syndrome is such a perfect description of what the American left is currently going through, those on the left are going to overcompensate.

When a Democrat eventually gets elected (lets call this person "X" for now), even the most minor criticism of "X" will be called ""X" Derangement Syndrome".

You can always tell when an insult or description describes the left perfectly, because they always try to turn it around. Because those on the left hated being called triggered, the left now overcompensates by calling any disagreement with the left "being triggered".

In fact, I'll go so far as to say that @HomerThompson @Falsedawn @Fawlty and @Rational Poster will all use the term ""X" Derangement Syndrome" to describe a disagreement with a Democratic President.
 
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