Political Betting Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by GearSolidMetal, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    betonline did for the US election and the french one too iirc, but cant see anything there now, they are the only US book i can use from uk so not sure about others. I assume the US books only offer odds for the really big elections and some of them only list pretty soon before the election. there's probably not that much demand on US sportsbooks, they seem to target NFL/NBA mainly and have a smaller range of markets. maybe pinnacle? they might be more likely to add markets if you ask them
     
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  2. waiguoren

    waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    It's strange. Certainly they would get more action than on the small sports. My guess is they don't want to open themselves to scrutiny from the US government for "election meddling" etc.
     
  3. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    yeah especially after the record amount wagered on the US/brexit/french elections. maybe there's just a lack of interest for the elections this year a lot of the bigger ones were pretty 1 sided. what were you looking for odds for?
     
  4. waiguoren

    waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Anything, really. US-wise, Trump is removed from office before X. Democrats take House in 2018, etc.
     
  5. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    yeah surprised they aren't offering trump props tbh, seems like a missed opportunity for them with how polarizing he is and the attention politics is getting atm.
    been trading a couple markets for trump to leave before the 1st term:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129097136

    it was roughly evens for the whole of his term so far, up until a few weeks ago, then it started to shorten pretty quick. people seem to realize a lot of the shit thrown at him just isn't going to stick, feels more and more like he will see out a full term now, but obviously there's still a chance for him to do/say something crazy.

    another one that I'm kind of surprised at is that he's a pretty big favorite to win the next election too:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

    not really in a hurry to take him at 3.1 ish currently so much can happen between no and then that I'd be amazed if he didn't trade much higher at some point
     
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  6. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    @waiguoren or anyone else, you think this stuff with the korean war being declared over and trumps upcoming meeting will play well for the image of his presidency? his odds for serving the whole 1st term drifted a week or so ago, really tempted to smash his line atm to trade out lower.
     
  7. waiguoren

    waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    In my opinion, the main reason Trump wouldn't serve a full term would be a health issue. He's old and borderline obese.

    He won't get removed from office via the 25th Amendment nor via impeachment+removal. He won't drop out to pursue other things.

    I'd cap that line around -450.
     
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  8. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    yeah seems like the impeachment talk is dying down, democrats seem more willing to put up with it as there repeated attacks/smear campaigns just don't seem to be bearing any fruit. especially with trump's approval rating peaking this week. it's all water of a ducks back to him. health wise I think he can make it another 2 years, or even a year or less for the purposes of my bet.
     
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  9. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    https://sports.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129133401

    witch-hunt in full affect right now. trump drifting to 1.55ish to complete a full term. been scaling in more at these prices, there should be a decent squeeze once the hype quietens down a bit.can see him shortening to 1.45 fairly quick. anyone know much about what's been happening the last couple of weeks im a bit out of the loop.
     
  10. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    Basically, his lawyer implicated him in improper use of campaign funds. His company's CFO has also made an immunity deal to testify, and that can lead us to some other things.

    Personally, I think the democrats would like to let him finish his term. 2020 race will be much easier against Trump than against Pence. Unless Trump decides to just get out of it and resign. But I would not bet against him completing a term just yet.
     
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  11. waiguoren

    waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    It has nothing to do with the Democrats. Even if the Democrats can take the House in November (no easy task), they won't have the Senate. An impeachment vote would be ceremonial.

    The biggest risk to Trump not serving a full term is his health/age. To me, he seems pretty healthy.
     
  12. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    Yes the house can only impeach and not remove, but I would expect he would resign before something like that could even happen (if it becomes likely). I don't think that democrats taking the senate is out of the question, though.

    In that case, I'd also believe it possible for republicans to try to force him out to prevent a 2020 loss. Almost every politician has more loyalty to their own power than to any other individual's agenda. Best case scenario (of the probable ones) for Trump, if the charges stack up and we see impeachment proceedings, is he decides to finish his term without seeking reelection. Depends how much faith the GOP has with Pence compared to another politician. And they'd have to weigh the risk/benefit with destabilizing their base. But realistically the GOP has more power than Trump does as far as what his future holds.

    In the end this line will be up to Trump and what he thinks suits his legacy better. Be impeached and ousted, suffer a loss in 2020 (possibly even in a primary), or resign under the some standard excuse (family etc) to keep his legacy intact. If impeachment proceedings happen I could see the last one being decently likely.

    edit: I mentioned the democrats though because I think many of them would like to deny an impeachment vote altogether. Anything that prevents a risk of a Trump resignation is politically favorable to them before the 2020 cycle happens.
     
  13. waiguoren

    waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Huh? Much of the Democrat base is frothing at the mouth right now calling for impeachment. The Democrat leaders aren't talking about it much, and in my opinion that is because they are scared of turning off independents in the run-up to November. If the Democrat voters want impeachment, the leadership will most likely deliver it upon taking the House.

    Interested in a bet on this?

    I have Trump as a favorite for 2020. Also, I seriously doubt Republican leadership will try to force him out at this point. They acquiesced when he hadn't proven viability yet. Now that he has, why would they change course? His poll numbers are near his all-time best. Ryan is gone. McConnell is on board. I'm not following your reasoning.

    Again, I have Trump as the favorite going into 2020. I think he matches up favorably with most of the field. There are a few tough potential matchups, but nothing insurmountable. Many of the names that have been floated (Booker, Harris, Gillibrand) would get destroyed, in my estimation.
     
  14. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    This is true, but I disagree with your reasoning. Firstly because it would be stupid to go all-out on impeachment without letting more information come. But also because they know Trump can do better work for them than anyone else can. They already know anti-Trump rhetoric will be a campaign tool for most of their major candidates this year, I don't think they're concerned with it.

    Not yet. But I'd consider it later. I'd like to get at least another month's worth of polling data. I just don't think it's as unlikely as some think.

    I'd vehemently disagree. But I'd preface that while I didn't vote for him, I bet on him winning in 2016. He was in the margin of error everywhere and had a much more motivated base. Made sense to me at the time.

    He's not polling at an all time high, he's just doing better than he has at some points recently. His approval rating is at a moderately acceptable (though still lower than usual) rate for an incumbent race. But I'm not too concerned with that unless it rises to a clear majority. Voting blocks will be significantly more motivated to get Trump out of office now that he's in. Many weren't concerned in 2016 because they didn't expect him to win. Now, there's a very motivated base against him while previous Trump voters will probably be subject to significant amounts of complacency. There's a LOT more potential to expand the pool that voted against him in 2016, and very little room for Trump to gain anyone who didn't already vote for him.

    This will especially be true if the democrats can put up a solid candidate. My only worry is them putting someone as boring and shitty as Gillibrand who might excite voters even less than Hillary. I'd predict someone with potential populist appeal, like Harris or Booker (though I have issues with both) will likely win with a >5% popular spread. I'd still bet on someone like Gillibrand, just less so. I can't imagine any decent candidate not crushing the campaign.

    Also, a serious legal accusation, even if it doesn't lead to a removal from office, will be a major political hit for him ESPECIALLY if he's still facing those issues leading up to the next race. I don't believe leadership in either party expects him to win in 2020 at this time. I only believe GOP leadership supports him right now because of how he can help their midterm races. There's no point in turning against him this year.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2018
  15. waiguoren

    waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    You're assuming that politics is a game of appealing to people's reasonable side, but it rarely is. At this moment, the dominant strategy for the Democrat leadership is to rattle sabers without stepping over the line. You have Pelosi making various inflammatory statements about Trump that stop just shy of calling for impeachment. Adam Schiff is another example.

    Let me know when you're ready. We can go AV or name bet.

    I wrote that he is close to his all-time high. I was correct:

    Trump's current RCP average job approval is 43.6%.

    His highest ever was right after inauguration (Jan 2017): 45.9%.

    His lowest ever (Dec 2017) was 37.1%

    Given that you and I see the race very differently, I look forward to betting with you in the run-up to the 2020 election.

    I have Trump as a dominant favorite over all of the candidates you mentioned. In my estimation, the toughest matchups for Trump are Warren, Sanders, and Biden.

    There are no serious legal accusations against Trump at this point. The Mueller probe is likely to end up emboldening Trump's base and a significant portion of independents, similar to the Starr investigation and President Clinton's poll numbers circa 1999. Siccing Weissman on any president and failing to find significant dirt is a great way to boost that president's support.

    Why didn't they turn against him after his election? Why didn't they turn against him when he was least popular?

    Trump is the head of the Republican Party now. Only a few vulnerable Republicans in swing districts (e.g., Will Hurd) can get away with criticizing him. Look what happened to Paul Ryan.
     
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  16. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    I'm pleasantly surprised that you're apparently smarter than most democratic strategists. I'd consider Biden a wildcard though. He can reel in a wide base of support but doesn't really stand for much politically. I mention Harris/Booker because I believe they will be pushed the most by the democrats, and they're smart politicians who can give progressives enough for support even if they're not gaining many independents.

    I don't see the situations as comparable, personally. Clinton's was mostly about ethics, while Trump faces accusations of corruption. Corruption is important to voters. And while I don't think his hardcore base cares either way, it could rally more people against him. Trump hasn't really acted like a good boy during the investigation too, which doesn't help. I doubt it'll gain him much and if something significant is found, I strongly believe it'll hurt him.

    Well at that point it's not just about their elections. They need to work with Trump to pass their agenda. Acting like a moderate Trump supporter lets you keep a spectrum of the right, though. But if Trump is a sinking ship leading up to 2020 they'll have no reason not to jump off.
     
  17. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I honestly have not followed any of this enough to comment intelligently on it, other than the last comment about Paul Ryan.

    I agree that Ryan poked the bear to a degree and got slapped down, but that's only part of the story. Ryan's explanation that he wanted to spend time with his kids while they were still kids is true by every account from people that know him (he's from my area and there are people I believe that know him and his family--some that strongly disagree with his politics--that say he absolutely is a family-first guy and the idea of walking away for awhile was there even before the Trump victory and subsequent undermining of Ryan as speaker and his ideas). I think it was a situation where Ryan was squeezed out, but was at the least partially relieved that it happened.

    I also think (and this is 100% speculation on my part and nothing more--and as I mentioned I've become too weary and cynical to follow this stuff so I know jack shit compared to you guys) that Ryan truly believes (right or wrong) Trump's populism will be a passing fad that will end up being nothing more than a blip on the historical radar of the republican party. In 2024 Ryan's youngest child will be 19 and off to college. Ryan will be 54, still plenty young enough for the rigors of a run at the white house. How much "shine" he'd have at that point as a candidate I couldn't even begin to imagine (both because of my political ignorance currently and because so much can and likely will happen to change the landscape over the next 6 years).
     
  18. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    My idea on Ryan was that he just didn't want to deal with this shit anymore. He didn't want to play for a team that went against his principles, and have his congressional legacy tied up in it. They couldn't squeeze him out of his seat, only possibly his speaker position. He was most likely going to win his election. He's young (by political standards) and could easily reclaim a future in politics. He might as well use this time for his family while this all passes by. It was a smart move regardless of his primary motivations.

    I definitely wouldn't count out a 2024 run but I wouldn't bet on him winning. He's a good orator and comes across as reasonable, but he's realistically kinda boring and pretty behind on social issues. He's not enough of a libertarian icon and not moderate enough in his policy positions. Millennials have extremely one-sided polling numbers on some issues regardless of party affiliation, and that block is only going to grow in the next few years. He could easily flip flop on some stuff though.
     
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  19. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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  20. waiguoren

    waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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