Political Betting Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by GearSolidMetal, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    betonline did for the US election and the french one too iirc, but cant see anything there now, they are the only US book i can use from uk so not sure about others. I assume the US books only offer odds for the really big elections and some of them only list pretty soon before the election. there's probably not that much demand on US sportsbooks, they seem to target NFL/NBA mainly and have a smaller range of markets. maybe pinnacle? they might be more likely to add markets if you ask them
     
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  2. waiguoren

    waiguoren Red Belt

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    It's strange. Certainly they would get more action than on the small sports. My guess is they don't want to open themselves to scrutiny from the US government for "election meddling" etc.
     
  3. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    yeah especially after the record amount wagered on the US/brexit/french elections. maybe there's just a lack of interest for the elections this year a lot of the bigger ones were pretty 1 sided. what were you looking for odds for?
     
  4. waiguoren

    waiguoren Red Belt

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    Anything, really. US-wise, Trump is removed from office before X. Democrats take House in 2018, etc.
     
  5. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    yeah surprised they aren't offering trump props tbh, seems like a missed opportunity for them with how polarizing he is and the attention politics is getting atm.
    been trading a couple markets for trump to leave before the 1st term:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129097136

    it was roughly evens for the whole of his term so far, up until a few weeks ago, then it started to shorten pretty quick. people seem to realize a lot of the shit thrown at him just isn't going to stick, feels more and more like he will see out a full term now, but obviously there's still a chance for him to do/say something crazy.

    another one that I'm kind of surprised at is that he's a pretty big favorite to win the next election too:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

    not really in a hurry to take him at 3.1 ish currently so much can happen between no and then that I'd be amazed if he didn't trade much higher at some point
     
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  6. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    @waiguoren or anyone else, you think this stuff with the korean war being declared over and trumps upcoming meeting will play well for the image of his presidency? his odds for serving the whole 1st term drifted a week or so ago, really tempted to smash his line atm to trade out lower.
     
  7. waiguoren

    waiguoren Red Belt

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    In my opinion, the main reason Trump wouldn't serve a full term would be a health issue. He's old and borderline obese.

    He won't get removed from office via the 25th Amendment nor via impeachment+removal. He won't drop out to pursue other things.

    I'd cap that line around -450.
     
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  8. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    yeah seems like the impeachment talk is dying down, democrats seem more willing to put up with it as there repeated attacks/smear campaigns just don't seem to be bearing any fruit. especially with trump's approval rating peaking this week. it's all water of a ducks back to him. health wise I think he can make it another 2 years, or even a year or less for the purposes of my bet.
     
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