Political Betting Thread | Page 67

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by GearSolidMetal, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    By late May/early June it was clear Trump would be the nominee.

    From June 1 to August 18 he held no events in MI. Over this same period he went to Florida 5 times, North Carolina 6 times, Virginia 2 times, Pennsylvania 5 times, Ohio 3 times. They only went to Wisconsin once.

    Clearly they had their eyes on PA and OH from the start but not the rustbelt more generally.

    In total, they held Trump rallies in Florida 25 times, in Ohio 14 times, in Pennsylvania 14 times, and in Colorado 10 times. He only held Michigan rallies 6 times and Wisconsin rallies 5 times.

    The push in Michigan didn't start until 1 week before the election. Trump held 4 Michigan rallies in 8 days (See below).

    Prior to this 11th hour push, it seems they were instead hoping to flip Colorado. They sent Trump there 10 times but only once in the last 8 days.

    Michigan (6 total visits)
    August 19 (1)
    September 30 (1)
    October 31 (2 events in 2 different cities)
    November 6 (1)
    November 7 (1)


    Here's the list of Trump campaign events.

    Also there was a New Yorker piece by John Cassidy which quoted Trump campaign workers as saying the big final YOLO push in Michigan was a response to polling. It really seemed to surprise them. I don't think creativity had anything to do with it. They were just keeping their eyes and ears open and wisely jumped on an opportunity when it presented itself.
     
    #1321
  2. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    BREAKING: Theresa May announces snap General Election for june 2017
     
    #1322
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  3. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    labour are very weak atm good time for the torries to announce this I guess, Seems like a pre-cursor of sorts to potential imminent world events coming to a head?
     
    #1323
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  4. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    has to be confirmed in the house of commons before it's official but looks as if it will happen.

    needs 66% i think

    her first big backtrack of her term. wants to see through brexit to the end.
     
    #1324
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2017
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  5. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    £ could creep up vs euro today.
     
    #1325
  6. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    lol twitter going crazy about voting for tim farron

     
    #1326
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  7. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    food for thought about the FE:

    *20 islamic terrorist attacks since the charlie hebdo massacre.
    *youth unemployment (18-24) =24%
    *42% of muslims aged 18-29 believe suicide bombings are justified in some cases. that's only the people who admit this.
    *55% of europeans want a complete stop on all muslim immigration vs 20% oppose a complete ban. 61% of french people want a complete ban vs 16% oppose it.
     
    #1327
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  8. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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  9. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    make that 21 terrorist attacks since charlie hebdo..
     
    #1329
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  10. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    If the run-off were immediate or instant, Le Pen would be a very easy dog play. But I wonder if the two week break between the 1st and 2nd rounds will dampen some of the Le Pen enthusiasm.
     
    #1330
  11. BluntTrauma21 SpottieOttieDopaliscious

    BluntTrauma21
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    Holy shit that's crazy stuff, man. don't bet much on politics but those stats are very interesting, if not downright sad.
     
    #1331
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  12. Slohog Green Belt

    Slohog
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    I need to get on more bookies but if one of those I have opens Le Pen I might very well take a look.

    Fairly certain some more bullshit will happen before the election, not like you can trust the french to take care of stuff.
     
    #1332
  13. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    I kinda think la penn's odds have been over exaggerated a bit by people thinking a repeat of brexit/trump is going to happen, she's been drifting the last day or 2. up to 4.8 currently, she shortened a bit after news of the latest paris attack broke. her best chance would be if macron didn't make the final 2 but it looks like he will now. still could be worth a play especially in light of yesterday.

    pretty crazy that the candidates have cancelled their remaining appearances before the election, due to safety concerns... what kind of message does that send? I thought the whole point was that terrorism isn't supposed to affect what they do?!
     
    #1333
  14. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    more craziness as 30,000 pro la penn accounts on facebook banned in an attempt to counter fake news. on top of that google has said they are getting involved in the election too: https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/06/g...-anti-fake-news-drive-during-french-election/ this sets a dangerous precedent as it's going to be virtually impossible for them to be unbiased in deciding what constitutes "fake news" and factual writing. people are easily swayed and I remember reading a study somewhere that suggested top search results can affect undecided voters choose who they will vote for, I can't remember the % but it was significant.

    500,000 people from outside france have received duplicate ballot papers, which seems insane to me, as they will legitimately be able to vote twice, if we look at the US election and how one sided the votes from citizens living abroad were towards Hillary it seems crazy that this will not be investigated until after the election!
     
    #1334
  15. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    if la penn get's to the 2nd round which is very likely atm, there's been a consensus for a while now that she will struggle to draw support from other demographics in the 2nd round and will be soundly beaten by macron, provided he makes it. it's pretty close between him and fillon atm though.
    but obviously the large number of undecided voters could have an effect. she would have a much better chance of winning if macron failed to make the final 2.

    EDIT: just realised I already posted this pretty much lol, im burnt out from ufc last night.
     
    #1335
  16. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    macron's image as this youthful populist is starting to fall apart among a fringe number of his voters, he's a former rothchild banker, who's married to his former schoolteacher who's 25 years older than him..which is strange to say the least. he's francois hollande's protege but hollande has stayed well clear of supporting him as he is so unpopular and will leave it to the 2nd round to endorse macron provided he gets there.
    Macron is a huge europhile and is the only main candidate who is so pro EU.

    I'm surprised melanchon is doing so well some of his policies are crazy, he's a pretty hardcore socialist, who wants to reduce the maximum hours people in france can work each week to 32. taking into consideration the ridiculously high youth unemployment rate, and lack of permanent jobs for a lot who are actually employed, this seems bizarre to me from someone who embraces the moniker of "the french hugo chavez"
    there could be some good value betting on him to win as he's pretty much tied with fillon(haven't kept up with this the last couple days) yet if you look at their respective odds there is a huge disparity.
     
    #1336
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  17. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    I think hindsight will show this election is less about political parties and more about globalism vs nationalism
     
    #1337
  18. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    I'm gonna lump on la penn to finish in the top 2, currently 1.25 (-400)
     
    #1338
  19. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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  20. UAK Purple Belt

    UAK
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    I agree that her odds are not that good and I think you're right people looking for easy $$ after trump and brexit but I actually think +300 doesn't present value here. I could be dead wrong. I was hoping for a lot better odds before I checked and was disappointed to see that le pen was only +300. If you read my post history I've basically been betting on every politically incorrect candidate so far but this time is different.

    Full disclaimer: I got $0 on FE. Predictions: Le Pen wins first round but won't win the election.
     
    #1340
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