Political Betting Thread

thread re-opened, betting discussion only for politics, no personal political agenda's permitted
 
So there's a referendum in Italy (establishment/EU vs weirdos/euro skeptics/communists), election in France (Le Pen vs a bunch of horrible candidates) and a re-election in Austria between a semi-fascist and some environmentalist/green party-guy coming up.

Thinking of fading whoever the media likes in all of them, but gotta do some research first. Think we might need a straight up election-betting thread without all this US-election baggage thought, the topic is very infected and I'm afraid it might lead to a bunch of emotions running wild and stuff.
 
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125798504

anyone got any input for this market? it's for trump's final % vote. the absentee ballots will come in for a while, 47-49% is tempting as trumps on 47.4% atm, that would be a relatively big swing to go beneath 47% right? I think the absentee ballots will favor hillary but not by enough to drop trump down beneath 47%

I'm struggling to find real time info on this too
 
Wow congrats.

So many times i nearly pulled the trigger on Trump but hesitated including last night when he was +500. Bit gutted to say the least.

Its easy to say now, I have been sizing that bet up for a while too and at times he was as far out as 15.0 in recent months. truth is most of the time he was around 5.0 and the value wasnt there at that price IMO because how the fuck can trump win an election you know?
 
@SBJJ @rille31 @Sham5916910 @Slohog @Scythe @kb

I just received a notification. Out of the blue, someone named @Jack Scrapper left a comment on my profile:

"How's Fox News treating you, nitwit."


Just to be sure, let me know if this is the same guy who wrote:

"Save your money. Trump isn't going to be president."

and

There was "a lot of value" on Democrat to win presidency -200

and


"I do not feel the Repub candidates are connecting with the citizens nationally. I see the dem candidates are way stronger."

and

"Trump supporters are quite limited, trust me on this."

and

" I steered people away from a bad Trump bet, who can deny that?"

and

"hillary has had value here all along"

Let me know!
 
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So there's a referendum in Italy (establishment/EU vs weirdos/euro skeptics/communists), election in France (Le Pen vs a bunch of horrible candidates) and a re-election in Austria between a semi-fascist and some environmentalist/green party-guy coming up.

Thinking of fading whoever the media likes in all of them, but gotta do some research first.

Thoughts on the French election? Don't know much about it.

I think we can get a new thread next year. This is the 2016 thread.
 
Thoughts on the French election? Don't know much about it.

I think we can get a new thread next year. This is the 2016 thread.

Looked at it a bit. I don't speak Frog (my sisters long time boyfriend is Italian so I'm allowed to hate the french) and I've only put maybe 2-3 hours into it but I think the value might all be on Fillon. That other guy they wanted to nominate looked like the kind of dumbfuck Le Pen could score an upset over but Fillon seems to be a good candidate to keep the "extreme right" out.

He's said a bunch of slightly questionable things about minorities, seems like a "not very many fucks given" kind of guy when it comes to public opinion and is far enough right on a left/right scale that there's not much in-between him and Le Pen to fight over. Wikicapping also seems to indicate that for a French guy he's not that bad, like he seems like a somewhat likable conservative with an ideology to back it up and decent communication skills. I think far right/populist/alt-right/whatever candidates shits on anyone who goes for SJW/Gender-dumbfuckery but might have a harder time going against a stout conservative. I know Trump killed the field in the primaries, but to be honest I think that was mostly him being a lot of steps ahead of the competition.


In addition to that Fillon is like 65-35 or something head to head in opinion polls and I'm not sure if Bradley is in effect here as much as in other places given that Front National has been around for a bit. Unless Le Pen goes full Trump and scores big with the working class left I don't see how she wins.

That said, what the fuck do I know about the French lol.

edit: now that I think about it, maybe voter turnout will favor Le Pen a lot in the head to head? Like, her supporters will come out for a strong showing either way while it might be hard to get a socialist to throw a vote "against" Le Pen when they have to vote for Le Pen-light. Might be one theory?
 
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Also:

"There was "a lot of value" on Democrat to win presidency -200" might've been true at some point last year, so if it's a really old statement that one might not have been as dumb as some of the others.
 
I thought this forum might be headed toward a direction away from personal attacking 24/7, but I guess not. I hope your all so happy that Russia is attacking election systems around the world, got ur man elected, and won you $7.25.

I'm sure you all saw that retarded Comey letter coming in ur Fake-News driven 'capping analysis." please stay racist for me 'rille31', and adieu to the rest of you uneducated.
 
I thought this forum might be headed toward a direction away from personal attacking 24/7, but I guess not. I hope your all so happy that Russia is attacking election systems around the world, got ur man elected, and won you $7.25.

I'm sure you all saw that retarded Comey letter coming in ur Fake-News driven 'capping analysis." please stay racist for me 'rille31', and adieu to the rest of you uneducated.
Lmao @ believing Russia hacked the election
 
I thought this forum might be headed toward a direction away from personal attacking 24/7, but I guess not. I hope your all so happy that Russia is attacking election systems around the world, got ur man elected, and won you $7.25.

I'm sure you all saw that retarded Comey letter coming in ur Fake-News driven 'capping analysis." please stay racist for me 'rille31', and adieu to the rest of you uneducated.
how are you today @Jack Scrapper
 
Lmao @ believing Russia hacked the election

I said Russia is attacking the ability for nations in Europe and the world to hold sovereign elections.

Did Fox News not discuss this point for you recently buttin. Maybe you should stop posting after you embarrassed yourself in the forum's thread yesterday.
 
It is always nice to wake up in the morning with a warm message waiting for you in your inbox.... awwwww someone was thinking about me

jack scrapper.jpg
 
@SBJJ @rille31 @Sham5916910 @Slohog @Scythe @kb

I just received a notification. Out of the blue, someone named @Jack Scrapper left a comment on my profile:

"How's Fox News treating you, nitwit."


Just to be sure, let me know if this is the same guy who wrote:

"Save your money. Trump isn't going to be president."

and

There was "a lot of value" on Democrat to win presidency -200

and


"I do not feel the Repub candidates are connecting with the citizens nationally. I see the dem candidates are way stronger."

and

"Trump supporters are quite limited, trust me on this."

and

" I steered people away from a bad Trump bet, who can deny that?"

and

"hillary has had value here all along"

Let me know!

Seems the crew that made the right call were more than gracious in winning. While guys like this continue to be pissed off.
 
Jack Scrapper's respect will be immediately restored if he hops on 5d livechat and asks they refund the money he bet on the election since Russia hacked it
 
@Jack Scrapper in his cappin lab

173ga5.jpg
 
Should be plenty of elections and stuff to bet on this year, I can see bookmakers offering more odds on political events after the gigantic sums of money wagered on the US election.

there's the presidential election in france, the german federal election, article 50, and loads of trump related bets already up, amongst other things. I think with the variety of posters from different countries in here presents some good knowledge and potential edges where we can make some money.

usefull links:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics (links for rest of the world politics are on this page too)
https://smarkets.com/politics/world - some interesting markets here too
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
https://www.youtube.com/user/TheYoungTurks
https://www.betfair.com/exchange (politics is on the a-z on the left)

lemme know of any other links that will be helpful too, so I can add them.

PS: Just to make it clear now, bet's that we make have no link to our own political leanings and should not be viewed in that way.
 
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