Political Betting Thread

Another new Republican SC poll by SCHRC:

Trump 34.5 Cruz 15.5 Bush 13 Rubio 12.5 Kasich 8.5 Carson 5 Undecided 11

Bush and Rubio switching places is more in line with my expectations. Note that Trump still has more support than all 3 establishment candidates put together.
 
waiguoren said:
What are the rules for the Iowa bet to cash? I guess it's based on SDEs since, to my knowledge, raw vote totals for the Iowa Democratic race are not made public.
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Yeah, SDEs I'm sure, it was graded a win faster than I expected (that night).

For Nevada, the demographics favor Hillary, as does her ground campaign according to all media but it's said Bernie's team has poured money into it in the last week and he has the momentum. Neither has really dominated a debate.

Kasich's numbers in those polls are very surprising to me. Looking forward to tomorrow's debate.
 
Hillary -136 in Nevada on BM. That's good enough for me to bet.

And some of the maxes have been raised on 5dimes:

Other bets I've now placed:
Trump (-260) and Bernie (-210) in Mass.
Trump in Vermont (-245)
 
Scythe said:
Hillary -136 in Nevada on BM. That's good enough for me to bet.

And some of the maxes have been raised on 5dimes:

Other bets I've now placed:
Trump (-260) and Bernie (-210) in Mass.
Trump in Vermont (-245)
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lol I just came in here to say Hillary -136 on BM. Hit that to win .5u
 
lmfao that was the most ridiculous debate I've ever seen. Can't begin to predict how it will affect the polls.
 
Yep, Trump's worst (in my opinion) and he probably does better than ever! Blamed 9/11 on W, wanted to ally with Putin, and went pro-Planned Parenthood.

I would say it was a good recovery for Rubio. He stayed safe. No idea if fighting Trump helps Jeb at all, even if he gets some respect for it. Cruz was mediocre, but got out his message that he's the most conservative, again.

Carson should finally be done after South Carolina?
 
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Scythe said:
Yep, Trump's worst (in my opinion) and he probably does better than ever! Blamed 9/11 on W, wanted to ally with Putin, and went pro-Planned Parenthood.

I would say it was a good recovery for Rubio. He stayed safe. No idea if fighting Trump helps Jeb at all, even if he gets some respect for it. Cruz was mediocre, but got out his message that he's the most conservative, again.

Carson should finally be done after South Carolina?
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Apparently Trump was quoted afterward as saying it was his best debate performance.

As for Rubio, I think viewers who listened carefully would have to notice that he's still giving canned answers to most questions. When he was asked which question he would ask of a former president, he launched into an answer about how great Ronald Reagan was.

I agree that Cruz got overshadowed for the most part. My jaw was on the floor when he started speaking Spanish in the middle of the debate. I feel like it can only hurt him.

Carson will be done after SC. He is being completely ignored.
 
BTW, new poll shows Hillary destroying Bernie in SC by 38%.
 
Scythe said:
Yep, Trump's worst (in my opinion) and he probably does better than ever! Blamed 9/11 on W, wanted to ally with Putin, and went pro-Planned Parenthood.

I would say it was a good recovery for Rubio. He stayed safe. No idea if fighting Trump helps Jeb at all, even if he gets some respect for it. Cruz was mediocre, but got out his message that he's the most conservative, again.

Carson should finally be done after South Carolina?
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Jae Gibbz said:
lol I just came in here to say Hillary -136 on BM. Hit that to win .5u
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New SC polls out today:

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary SC House GOP Trump 33, Cruz 14, Rubio 14, Bush 13, Kasich 10, Carson 6

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Gravis Clinton 59,
Sanders 41

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Gravis Trump 37, Cruz 23, Rubio 19, Bush 9, Kasich 6, Carson 6
 
A little surprised to see Rubio doing so well. I guess he is getting a bounce from the debate. Looks like Kasich is being lost among the noise.
 
Don't think Kasich ever expected anything from SC. He's focused on Michigan. A 10 would be amazing for him there (I don't actually buy that number).

The SC polls have been bumping people all over the place aside from Trump. There have been rumors of internal polls that have it closer, don't know what to make of that. Jeb below a 10 in SC would be horrific for him.
 
The fact that this family, this 'Jeb', and this 'Dubya' have 'chances' to be elected into political office speaks volumes about this country. jus sayin.

got my fingers crossed for Bernie, and I can feel the momentum turning.
 
My guess: 1. Trump 2/3 Cruz/Rubio 4. Bush 5. Kasich or Carson
 
I'm taking a shot at Kasich better SC finish than Bush 1.25u at +250

I also got in a hedge of Bernie +160 to win Nevada right before the line got taken down
 
They're projecting Clinton as the winner at about 65% reporting. She's up 4 points.

I ended up betting both Cruz 2nd/Rubio 3rd (and still have a bit on Cruz to win at +400 and +1000, haha). Kasich over Bush was a good bet at those odds, never saw it.

If Cruz and Rubio flip-flop, I'll be down a bit. Thought the other establishment choices would hurt Rubio more, but Jeb may finally be dead. Wish I'd just bet more on that Clinton -136 line and skipped the Republicans.
 
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