Percentage of BJJ players that get promoted to each belt? | Page 3

Discussion in 'Grappling Technique' started by chaps, Jun 17, 2013.

  1. TsunamiBJJ Orange Belt

    TsunamiBJJ
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    I have some not so detailed stats.

    The academy I've been with started in 2004. We've had well over 2500 people come in and try at least 1 class. As for those that signed up that percentage is lower and that works out to about 1400 people that have signed up and done over 1 month of BJJ.

    Of all the people that have trained with us for over 12 months at any time that I've been able to keep track of (even those that have left our academy) 7 of those people are black belts now. Another 5 are brown belts that I'm sure will eventually be black belts.

    There are 48 purple belts that I can remember training with us at one time or another, and I'm sure I missed some. Of those I know of 4 that definitely won't be training BJJ any more and 3 more where it seems likely they'll quit before getting to black belt. The rest I expect to one day get their black belts.

    There are roughly 140 blue belts ever from what stats I could gather that have been handed out by our instructors over the almost 10 years.

    So to the best of my knowledge at my academy the stats look like this:

    Black Belt: 0.5%
    Brown Belt and Up: 0.85%
    Purple Belt and Up: 4.3%
    Blue Belt and Up: 10%
    White Belt drop out rate: 90%

    Based off of 1400 students that did BJJ at least 1 month AND trained with us for at least 12 months.

    Granted, these are very imperfect stats, done from memory data from our billing system that we didn't always use. Also, take in to account people that have left the academy, some of whom might have resumed training, and for the most part this does not include people that have come to our academy from other academies that were already blue and purple belts. So take it with a grain of salt - also realize that I based the numbers off the roughly 1400 students that stayed at least 1 month that we were able to bill for at least 1 month at any time. The actual people that 'tried' BJJ is well in to the 2500 range. I'm also not including children.
     
    #41
  2. jughead1 BJJ Hipster

    jughead1
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    Interesting stats, why'd those 4 quit and why do you expect those 3 to quit?

    Thanks for the data.
     
    #42
  3. TsunamiBJJ Orange Belt

    TsunamiBJJ
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    Too personal for each instance - I wish I could say, because some of it is humorous.
     
    #43
  4. jughead1 BJJ Hipster

    jughead1
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    You can't just speak in generalities? Injuries, lifestyle changes, inner school drama, etc.?
     
    #44
  5. Rich959 Yellow Belt

    Rich959
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    Awesome to see some numbers from actual experience, imperfections aside.

    It's interesting that you're expecting that, for those 60 that advanced to purple or higher, 90% will achieve black belts [7 current + 5 brown expected to reach black + 41 of 48 purple expected to reach black]. That's a surprise to me, but is in line with those who posted previously that most who reach 'advanced' belts do make it to black.

    Thanks again for posting.
     
    #45
  6. TsunamiBJJ Orange Belt

    TsunamiBJJ
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    Burnout, drug addiction, old age, careers, etc, and life changing injuries.
     
    #46
  7. spectrum White Belt

    spectrum
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    It'd be interesting to see further breakdowns based on age and gender.

    For example, is someone who starts BJJ in their 30s more likely to stick with it than someone in their 20s? Are the male and female drop-out rates roughly equivalent at each belt level? How many people who are 40+ that start BJJ make it to blue belt?

    Even weight would be another interesting metric, i.e. are people who weigh less than ~130lb less likely make it to blue, but more likely to make it to purple?

    What about people who compete vs. those who don't?

    Great topic, real numbers like Tsunami's are pretty fascinating. I'd be surprised if some of the bigger academies with large affiliations aren't already researching this. Would be useful information to have to make educated decisions on how to run and market their schools.
     
    #47
  8. Extropy White Belt

    Extropy
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    I just asked Draculino this question...

    He said that he expects black belt rates of 2-5%, but he can't say for sure because his Houston school is only 5 years old. He also said the Brazilian students stick around better, but they also come in at a slower pace.
     
    #48
  9. rawpower Yellow Belt

    rawpower
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    So using TsunamiBJJ's numbers we can do some cool calculations. I'm sure everyone has heard of life expectancy -- a measure of potential years you will live. Well we can make a life expectancy equivalent of BJJ belts -- a measure of potential belts you will achieve.

    Again, these calculations use the rough numbers TsunamiBJJ posted earlier and take a couple of rough assumptions (hey, this isn't peer review) such as assuming the average BJJer drops out exactly halfway through the next belt. But essentially we get this:

    BJJ Belt Expectancy
    White: 0.19 belts more
    Blue: 0.93 belts more
    Purple: 1.71 belts more
    Brown: 1 belt more
    Black: -

    Basically, the average white belt should expect to achieve just 0.19 belts, the average blue belt should expect to achieve almost one more belt (almost promoted to purple), but the average purple should expect to attain a black (well, technically almost a black as well). Of course a brown belt should expect to eventually be a black belt.

    Using myself as an example, I'm just a lowly blue, I can expect to almost make it to purple. However, if I am promoted to purple, I should expect to at least be promoted one more time to brown. I hope this makes sense. Ive never tried to explain life expectancy on the net.
     
    #49
  10. ManFurrB White Belt

    ManFurrB
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    Its commonly stated by the old school guys , our instructors and their instructors that less than 1% make it to black belt. The quote ive heard the most is "less than 1% of the worlds population trains jiu jitsu, and less than 1% of that makes it to blackbelt"

    My estimate would be (just a guess mind you)

    White to Blue 20-30%
    to Purple 5-10%
    to Brown 1-3%
    to Black 0-1%
     
    #50
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2013
  11. Balto Silver Belt

    Balto
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    Cool way of expressing it.
     
    #51
  12. TsunamiBJJ Orange Belt

    TsunamiBJJ
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    I like this! Very cool - thanks for sharing.

     
    #52
  13. Waldorf Blue Belt

    Waldorf
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    Since 2007, to the best of my recollection, 23 people have been promoted to blue over the course of 5 years. Of those 7 have been promoted to purple and 1 of those has been promoted to brown(at a different academy). Of the 23, I was a little surprised when I realized that only 4 dropped out of all together. Two more moved and I don't know if they still train or not. Another has been away on deployment and another is very sporadic in his training. Three moved or changed schools, but they still train. Pure guess but I'd say we have 400-500 people sign contracts and train BJJ.
     
    #53
  14. Iarphairc White Belt

    Iarphairc
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    I'd say maybe five or ten percent of ,at least semi-, serious white belts make it to blue, I'll be in that top percentile some day :D
     
    #54
  15. Legacy Orange Belt

    Legacy
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    I forget where i saw it online but an article stated that 3% of all bjj practitioners get promoted to black belt.
     
    #55
  16. Melkesyre Green Belt

    Melkesyre
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    3%? fuck the 97%
     
    #56
  17. Dogstarman Old man jiu jitsu

    Dogstarman
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    I see what you did there.
     
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  18. Legacy Orange Belt

    Legacy
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    Im glad someone did
     
    #58
  19. EBS Drew White Belt

    EBS Drew
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    I like that it's a very high standard to get promoted.

    In Judo for example, I know sooo many people who've gotten to black belt and just flat out suck. However, I've been training BJJ for what, maybe 3 - 4 months max. I won the Scottish National NoGI in my division, and wouldn't dream of asking to even get a stripe for my belt. I'm glad that in BJJ when you get the belt, it actually means something.
     
    #59

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