Only Person thinking that Tony can beat Khabib

I'm not a betting man (I've only bet on one MMA bout, and that was Wandy-Chuck, and I lost), but if I were to bet on this on, my money would be on Ferguson. I think he has the skills and size/strength to give Khabib a lot of trouble. Ferg has a strong guard with his long legs which makes him dangerous from his back with his elbows and triangles. And if gets to the feet, he has the clear advantage striking.
 
I would prefer to see Tony win, but after doing a slightly more in depth analysis I just don't see it happening, there isn't much data to back up that conclusion.


I want to believe the Tony will be able to use his striking skills to his advantage to make Khabib hesitant and potentially hurt him during standup exchanges.

I would love to see Tony use his BJJ to create scrambles, reversals and maybe even a submission...

But

When trying to accurately assess what I expect from a matchup I generally start by envisioning each fighters style, how they move, the techniques and tendencies they use most frequently, and then I do my best to imagine how those things would play out.

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Khabib has the best overall ability to secure takedowns and keep his opponents down of anyone I have ever seen in the modern era of MMA. He maintains excellent posture on the ground, he is usually on his feet (not his knees) and he has explosive and highly effective guard passes, generally to half guard where I feel he does his best work.

Even though Tony is a wrestler he has shown he can be taken down. There are two primary reasons for this:

1) his style is wild and he leaves himself in awkward positions (frequently happens during "spinning shit")

2) he generally doesn't mind going to the ground, even on his back because he has confidence in his BJJ


Unless Tony can hurt Khabib on the way in (which is possible but not going to be easy) I see this fight playing out like most other Khabib fights. On the ground with Khabib on top...

now here is the X factor:

Can Tony keep Khabib from passing guard? (I don't think he will be able to do so all night)

Will Tony be able to create scrambles? Will he be able to get on top?

Tony has EXCELLENT submissions. He is lethal. I think of him as a Frank Mir/ Werdum/Maia type BJJ finisher (slightly less variety as Mir and not quite on these guys level but close when it comes to MMA submissions)

Two of Tony's 9 submission wins were via triangle, a sub generally set up on the bottom in full guard, hence the importance of keeping Khabib from passing guard.

Tony is an Eddie Bravo protege 10th Planet BJJ student, tends to use rubber guard a lot. I have done a bit of BJJ myself and since I have well above average hip flexibility (especially for a big guy), I liked to use rubber guard...

The issue with rubber guard is that if you can't trap the opponent they often get a fairly easy pass to half guard or side control and Khabib is very good at passing to half guard.

People have been questioning Khabib's cardio as this will be a 5 round fight, but I see him being in dominant positions most of the fight, even though he is very active with ground and pound, the damage he inflicts should outway the energy he expends. And he lost a bit of muscle for the Barbosa fight making his weight cut easier and leaving less muscle to drain oxygen.

I'd love to see Tony pull off a sub, but Khabib gets most of his TDs from the clinch; Tony tends to get his d'arce choke in place while stuffing a takedown from a shot.

I am a huge fan of Tony as a fighter, he is exciting and he is a finisher with great heart. He is going to need his cardio and his heart in this one.

I give Tony basically a puncher's chance (and more realistically the submission equivalent of that phenomenon), but even that won't be easy because Khabib is always in dominant positions. The fact that Khabib stands 90% of the time on the ground makes it tough to drag him into a triangle, an armbar is possible but that pretty much goes away in side control or half guard.

I think Tony's best bet is to either catch Khabib on the chin coming in, then maybe ground and pound or take his back, or find a way to hit a sweep. He should be drilling half guard sweeps like crazy, he should bring in Nogueira, he should work his de la riva guard which would be the perfect answer to Khabib standing up while on top on the ground. Tony should also drill heel hooks and leg locks to take advantage of Khabib's frequent standing in guard.

Tony can pull it out but I expect he would have to do so by being opportunistic, a la vintage Big Nog or Anderson/Chael 1 (but Khabib won't make it that easy to get wrist control and won't be laying down on his chest like Chael was)

That or be able to keep it standing as I think Tony will have a huge striking advantage, but that is easier said than done and Khabib has ragdolled some excellent grapplers already.
 
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Khabib's padded record is coming to an end..
 
Khabib's padded record is coming to an end..
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Top 5 at 155 could win on any given night imo. Killer division.
 
Only a Conor fan would think (wish) Tony can beat Khabib.
I don't see a connection.

I want conor to fight them both eventually. I believe tony has excellent chances to win against Khabib and I actually think Tony is the tougher match up for Conor.
 
I think a 5 round fight favors Tony.

I'd pick Khabib by landslide if this were a 3 round fight.

It shouldn't be controversial to pick the guy who's consistently stayed busy fighting top opponents and won 10 in a row. Barboza and Johnson both have spotty records for a reason. For his part, MJ took his 7th career submission loss against Khabib, what a shocker.

Khabib has to take coffee breaks to catch his wind when he's literally dominating an opponent. Tony won't afford him any breaks, so I think he'll gas faster than usual.

I have a hard time seeing Khabib put Tony away and I don't think he can out wrestle him for 5 rounds. On the flipside I have a hard time seeing Tony get Khabib to tap, even if he catches him. He may have to TKO him to get the win.

This fight has controversial split decision written all over it.
 
I think they're both tough fights for eachother. I'm not sleeping on anybody. Tony can definitely win. Him doing so would not shock me in the least. It's like people think he's just gonna stand there, let himself get taken down, and let Khabib beat on him. Tony is dangerous everywhere, including off his back.

Thing is, Khabib has one way he can win and everybody knows what it is. Tony is much more well rounded and unpredictable. I think people are forgetting that Khabib is a 1-trick pony. It's a good trick, but it's all he really has.
 
Tony can always win by durability and cardio, but Khabib is the fav. 65/35 imo.
 
Kevin Lee got to Ferg fairly easy. With Khabibs patientce and killer ground game. The boogeyman is in for a nightmare of his own.
 
I don't see a connection.

I want conor to fight them both eventually. I believe tony has excellent chances to win against Khabib and I actually think Tony is the tougher match up for Conor.

I agree. Tony can actually strike, and he has a really good chin. Add that to the fact that he's tall and lanky. We saw what happened with the last tall/lanky guy Conor fought, and that guy is just a boxer. He's a really good boxer, that's all he's got.

If Conor has been working with some big, strong grapplers and working on his tdd, he'll be a nightmare matchup for Khabib.
 
Lots of people on here think Tony CAN beat Khabib, he has a far better gas tank especially if Khabib has a hard weight cut & Tony is always scrambling & looking to apply pressure. Tony has great submissions which comes into play when Khabib inevitably takes him down.

The fact that either can win is what makes this such an interesting fight. But neither guy is marketable though, the Russian MMA market isn'twhat many think it is & the time difference would potentially screw the USA PPV market.
 
It’s not crazy to think that Tony can win this fight. He’s likely the best wrestler that Khabib will have faced in the Octagon and his cardio is second to none. Khabib will get his takedowns but Tony will never quit working and over 25 minutes, Khabib’s pace may begin to slow.
 
I don't see a connection.

I want conor to fight them both eventually. I believe tony has excellent chances to win against Khabib and I actually think Tony is the tougher match up for Conor.

Exactly, only a Conor fan would want Tony to win? phahaahah
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