Official UFN 69 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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Ken's kicks in that video are so slow my god...

As someone else mentioned Sasaki has a very good back take standing. Lapilus will be open to this as he is going to spend a lot of time pressed against the fence with Sasaki hunting for the takedown. I think Sasaki by sub hedged by Lapilus decision may be the way to go.

Just watched Mustafaev's last three fights and I am not overly impressed. Against Koshkin it was very back and forth on the floor, lots of reversals, scrambling. He definitely is not the type of fighter who grounds someone and can hold them there for the round. He clearly favours leglocks but he is no Palhares and unless your Palhares committing two hands to a leg is very risky business at the top level. Adaev locked up a triangle before he slammed him into unconsciousness, and he was losing to Nurmagomedov before he landed a spinning backfist that skimmed him and resulted in a rather bizarre finish. His standup isn't great, takedowns look ok and he is aggressive on the floor but very open to being reversed, out scrambled, etc. Are we getting a great line on Hallmann here or should I hold out for lb? Tempted to go big on Hallmann to be honest but I normally don't bet on or against people until I have seen them in the UFC. Lots of fighters seem to really up their game once they get into the UFC.
 
Took not Joanna itd +170, this is womans mma and I could see this one hitting the cards
 
CR0W's UFC Fight Night: Berlin - Predictions



Realised I'm not going to have enough time to do an individual breakdown on each fight like I did with Lapilus vs Sasaki so having to keep it short and sweet I'm afraid. As always best of luck to everyone.
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jedrzejczyk-vs-penne-banner.jpg



Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Jessica Penne

Jedrzejczyk is a beast. Penne is underdized here and lacks head movement.

Jedrzejczyk to win.



Dennis Siver vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri

Kawajiri is definitely on the decline, however his wrestling and top control are still top class. Siver hasn't look a world beater recently and can still give a good output but Kawajiri matches up well in my opinion.

Kawajiri to win.



Steve Kennedy vs. Peter Sobotta

Kennedy is well rounded, good submission game. One of the tougher fights to call but Sabotta seems to have improved a lot since his lackluster first stint in the UFC and I can see him taking the win here.

Sabotta to win.



Nick Hein vs. Lukasz Sajewski

Hein packs good power on his punches, loves to counter his opponent. Judo background with a strong build. I included Sajewski on a prospect report I did in about 2011. I've been a fan of his for a long time, he holds a notable win over Marcin Held. A fantastic grappler who has the looser of the standup between these two. I can see Sajewski outworking Hein in all areas.

Sajewski to win.



Makwan Amirkhani vs. Masio Fullen

There's a lot of hype behind "Mr Finland" after his 8 second flying knee knockout of Andy Ogle. However make no mistake about it, Makwan is a grappler from a Greco-Roman background and that is where he truly excels despite his exciting and flashy standup attacks at times. His takedowns in the past have been hit or miss so he has been known to pull guard. In my opinion Masio Fullen has a low ceiling. A Taekwondo fighter, keeps his hands fairly low, but in my opinion he is not near the level of Yair Rodrigues who excited a lot of people recently with his style. Makwan has stated Fullen won't make it out of the first, he could very well be right.

Makwan to win.



Alan Patrick vs. Mairbek Taisumov

Patrick has a Jiu Jitsu base but loves to be creative on the feet. He is a big lightweight who can impose his will, albeit his standup lacks finesse. Taisumov is also a huge lightweight, training with Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand, Roger Huerta has spoken incredibly highly on Taisumov, even likening him to GSP. I think Taisumov has a bright future. He has looked solid in all his UFC performances apart from against Michel Prazeres, in which he was sick all fight week. His well roundedness, more complete striking and heavy top control will be too much for Patrick.

Taisumov to win.




Alan Omer vs. Arnold Allen

I also listed Alan Omer on a prospect list I did a few years ago. Omer definitely has the better striking in the fight. Omer is also creative off of his back and holds a lot of submission wins. However he can at times have spells on inavtivity and is too happy to let his opponent rack up time in top control. Arnold Allen has a bright future. He is gritty as hell, loves bodylock takedowns and to smother his opponent. Not the most exciting of styles but it works, and is also the style of fighter than matches up well with Omer.

Allen to win.




Niklas Backstrom vs. Noad Lahat

This card is full of excellent prospects and this match up feautures two of them. Niklas Backstrom is great once he gets on top on the mat. Heavy ground and pound and weaves together his transitions fluently. His hype train was derailed when he was knocked out brutally by Mike Wilkinson. Noad Lahat has been talked of highly by the guys at American Kickboxing Academy. From a Judo background, Lahat also has a sublime ground game. Lahat's hype was also somewhat derailed when he lost via a flying knee from Godofredo Pepey. Lahat unlike Backstrom has fought since that loss, dominating Steven Siler. Lahat trains with beasts day in day out who all sing his praise, ever improving I can see him taking the win here with his well rounded skillset.

Lahat to win.




Scott Askham vs. Antonio dos Santos Jr

Askham is a UK prospect with notable wins over Max Nunes and Jack Marshman. Marshman excels when on the feet, he carries good power and and technique. His ground game is not as good but is servicable. I don't rate Antonio Dos Santos highly, he is pretty average on the whole but posses good power in his leg kicks. Askham should be able to score on the feet and finish the fight, I wouldn't be surpised to see Askham drop Dos Santos and finish with a sub.

Askham to win.




Piotr Hallmann vs. Magomed Mustafaev

Hallman is coming back after failing a drugs test for steroids after losing a split decision to Gleison Tibau. Hallman is fairly well rounded, but he is truly at his best when he has top control over his opponent and can look to take the back and sink in a choke. Mustafaev holds a notable win over Khabib Nurmagomedov's brother, Abubakar. From a combat sambo background, he likes to load up on power shots rather than stringing together combinations. Mustafaev love to chain wrestle, often ending in bodylock takedowns. He has dangerous leglocks and is always searching for opening to find them. He can be taken down by his opponent on occassion but generally he is the one on top, controlling.

Mustafaev to win.




Taylor Lapilus vs. Ulka Sasaki

I've already done a breakdown on this a few pages back. Tought fight to call.

Lapilus to win.






My Bets:

Disclaimer: Yes these are the bets I will be taking, I'm not saying others necessarily should too. I know most people know that but I have someone complain the past that my bet lost and they tailed it. I lost a bet? Crazy huh, can't believe I didnt predict exactly how the fight would go. :p
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Parlay: Makwan Amirkhani and Mairbek Taisumov

Single: Arnold decision or (over 2.5)

Single: Lapilus

Single: Kawajiri

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Didn't Kawajiri look so old in his fight against Guida... you really think he'll beat Siver in Germany?
 
Card said:
Didn't Kawajiri look so old in his fight against Guida... you really think he'll beat Siver in Germany?
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I do. Styles make fights, Siver is almost as complete opposite as you can get when compared to Guida.

Part of me thinks he will due to being a massive fan for years but mostly due to the styles of each other.
 
MindSpin said:
why is there not huge money coming in on kimbo? the odds are alot close than i thought, i must be missing something
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cause you need to lay 3:1 on kimbo freakin slice.. go ahead...

pass...
 
@Jason_Floyd

Brazilian commission (CABMMA) has announced that Rony Jason tested positive for hydrochlorothiazide. Win over Damon Jackson overturned.
 
iGnP said:
did you read that somewhere ITT? if not, post the source, id like to read it too (not doubting you, just would like to see it myself also)
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I have some friends at Tiger. I think you can confirm it on their facebook page as well.
 
MMA Goodfella said:
I Been busy bud, is there a specific fight that you are Needing broke down? Or anyone else for that sake in here need a certain fight broke down?
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I was really just curious to see what your "play of the night" was. You are really good at picking dogs or close favorites and I like your insights.
 
Card said:
@Jason_Floyd

Brazilian commission (CABMMA) has announced that Rony Jason tested positive for hydrochlorothiazide. Win over Damon Jackson overturned.
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we talking 3 year suspension etc?
 
Wonder how many times Taisumov will grab the fence vs. Patrick
 
Penne's first camp with Alliance, says she's comfortable standing with Jedrzejczyk

 
Siver says Kawajiri is not as fast and powerful as him, pressure is high being in his home town, says he likes the energy

 
Not sure what is more shocking.. The fact that Ken Shamrock gets sanctioned for this fight or that the odds aren't really that bad on Kimbo. Just how is Ken supposed to take him down without working knees? If I recall correctly he had to barely outpoint Jonathan Ivey on the feet because he couldn't work a takedown.. I doubt aging fixes those problems. If he has one shot then that would be to catch Kimbo early with a big punch imo.
 
Amirkhani says Fullen has nothing for him, Ogle is a much better fighter, has been living at the gym, predicts under 1 minute finish



 
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