Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - September, 2017

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Lets fucking go Texans. Between prebet and livebet already up to almost a unit on them.

EDIT lmao @ next play being 70 yard AJ Green reception
 
Yessss total of 3u won on Texans thanks to livebetting through out + prebet
 
Up 7u on Texans, I took a Texans -3.5 line as well for +340.
 
iGnP said:
Thoughts on Eagles? I really like them this week
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What makes you like the Eagles? Wentz threw so many risky passes that could have been turned into picks.
 
OutRun said:
What makes you like the Eagles? Wentz threw so many risky passes that could have been turned into picks.
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A couple of reasons:

Firstly, the Chiefs, imo, should be closer to -3. They looked good in their opening night contest because the Patriots couldn't get any pressure on Alex Smith and he was able to connect on passes pretty easily. These passes weren't all deep passes, either. He was helped out a lot by YAC from his receivers since the Patriots had a lot of problems tackling. I dont anticipate the Eagles having the same issues because they have a superior defense to NE's. The Eagles are strong at, not only getting after the QB, but stopping the run

Secondly, the Chiefs are now down two members of their secondary, including their all pro safety who is out for the entire season w a torn achilles. No way will the Chiefs secondary be as effective with a replacement this week.

One final point: IDK how much weight you put into this but I think its very good to consider when looking into bets. Prior to the season starting, you could go and bet on any regular season game in Vegas. The line set on this game prior to season kick off was Chiefs -4. Now this line is Chiefs -6, which gives us two points of value on the Eagles. But if we think about this deeply, why should the Chiefs be bigger favorites this week when they are missing their best player along with (potentially) another starting cornerback? It's because of their upset of the Patriots in week 1. I think its an unjustified live move which is stemming from an overreaction to their upset win
 
iGnP said:
A couple of reasons:

Firstly, the Chiefs, imo, should be closer to -3. They looked good in their opening night contest because the Patriots couldn't get any pressure on Alex Smith and he was able to connect on passes pretty easily. These passes weren't all deep passes, either. He was helped out a lot by YAC from his receivers since the Patriots had a lot of problems tackling. I dont anticipate the Eagles having the same issues because they have a superior defense to NE's. The Eagles are strong at, not only getting after the QB, but stopping the run

Secondly, the Chiefs are now down two members of their secondary, including their all pro safety who is out for the entire season w a torn achilles. No way will the Chiefs secondary be as effective with a replacement this week.

One final point: IDK how much weight you put into this but I think its very good to consider when looking into bets. Prior to the season starting, you could go and bet on any regular season game in Vegas. The line set on this game prior to season kick off was Chiefs -4. Now this line is Chiefs -6, which gives us two points of value on the Eagles. But if we think about this deeply, why should the Chiefs be bigger favorites this week when they are missing their best player along with (potentially) another starting cornerback? It's because of their upset of the Patriots in week 1. I think its an unjustified live move which is stemming from an overreaction to their upset win
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I don't know if this factors in too much as it's been a while but Andy Reid vs Eagles (although Chip Kelly got rid of all his players so not sure what insight he'd have an them BUT his old back up QB and assistant coach Doug Peterson coaches them now).
 
NewcastleTom said:
I don't know if this factors in too much as it's been a while but Andy Reid vs Eagles (although Chip Kelly got rid of all his players so not sure what insight he'd have an them BUT his old back up QB and assistant coach Doug Peterson coaches them now).
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Yeah, that can go either way, though. Not really sure who has the "advantage" so it's prob best just to consider it a wash.

Also, one of the reasons I was a bit hesitant to bet on the Eagles initially was because Jason Peters was hurt and his status was in the air for this weekend. It now seems like he practiced on Wednesday and is on track to play on Sunday. That's all I need.

I already bet on the Eagles +5.5 and threw a bit on their ML at +197
 
iGnP said:
A couple of reasons:

Firstly, the Chiefs, imo, should be closer to -3. They looked good in their opening night contest because the Patriots couldn't get any pressure on Alex Smith and he was able to connect on passes pretty easily. These passes weren't all deep passes, either. He was helped out a lot by YAC from his receivers since the Patriots had a lot of problems tackling. I dont anticipate the Eagles having the same issues because they have a superior defense to NE's. The Eagles are strong at, not only getting after the QB, but stopping the run

Secondly, the Chiefs are now down two members of their secondary, including their all pro safety who is out for the entire season w a torn achilles. No way will the Chiefs secondary be as effective with a replacement this week.

One final point: IDK how much weight you put into this but I think its very good to consider when looking into bets. Prior to the season starting, you could go and bet on any regular season game in Vegas. The line set on this game prior to season kick off was Chiefs -4. Now this line is Chiefs -6, which gives us two points of value on the Eagles. But if we think about this deeply, why should the Chiefs be bigger favorites this week when they are missing their best player along with (potentially) another starting cornerback? It's because of their upset of the Patriots in week 1. I think its an unjustified live move which is stemming from an overreaction to their upset win
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What's up man? How's med school? I haven't been able to post much at all recently but hope all is well.

Interesting point you bring up about line shifts based on how Vegas views the game (and betting public) prior to the season vs how they view it in the current landscape. I think after just one week you have a valid point on that movement. I suppose the arguments you'd make for moving the line in more toward KC would be that it seems they **might** finally be willing to let Alex Smith throw the ball downfield (or he might actually be willing to, however you want to view it) and that Hunt seems to be a much bigger upgrade at RB than they realized. That maybe the injury to Ware actually was a blessing for KC. Do those outweigh the injury losses they've already sustained? I tend to agree with you that they don't (or at least that it's a wash, the KC offense is better than Vegas/betting public thought but the D is now worse). So yeah, I will probably pass on this game but if I was gonna pick a side I'd probably take the pts.
 
Generally, I really HATE laying big pts in the NFL. HATE it. But this week my favorite 2 plays are actually hefty faves (one is a ridiculously high # by NFL standards).

TB -7 vs Chicago.

I bet the Bears last week and loved them getting that many pts at home vs Atlanta. Atlanta is so much better at home, and offenses tend to be a little behind defenses early in the season (so laying big pts early in the year can be dumb LOL...yet here I go). But now the Bears travel to Florida to take on Tampa Bay. The Bucs have far more talent than Chicago. They had an extra week to prepare (and by everything I've read the hurricane didn't affect their practice schedule much). They aren't going to be caught off guard by the Bears midget RB secret weapon Cohen. And finally, the Bucs coaching staff knows everything there is to know about Bear's QB Glennon since he played in TB prior to signing with the Bears. In short, I think TB cruises past the Bears here and covers 7 pretty easily.


Sea -14 vs SF

Aside from maybe the Jets, the Niners have most likely the least talented roster in the NFL. Seattle got the stamp put on their offense by the Packers D last week, but SF just doesn't have guys up front like Daniels and Perry from Green Bay. Seattle's weakness is their O line obviously, but SF just doesn't have the front seven on defense to take advantage of that. Seattle's D is still very good, and it's hard to envision the SF offense having any success at all. Seattle is going to want to make a statement after losing last week, and this seems like a spot where they just blow the doors off a far inferior team. I think Seattle wins by three TD's or more.
 
mkess101 said:
What's up man? How's med school? I haven't been able to post much at all recently but hope all is well.

Interesting point you bring up about line shifts based on how Vegas views the game (and betting public) prior to the season vs how they view it in the current landscape. I think after just one week you have a valid point on that movement. I suppose the arguments you'd make for moving the line in more toward KC would be that it seems they **might** finally be willing to let Alex Smith throw the ball downfield (or he might actually be willing to, however you want to view it) and that Hunt seems to be a much bigger upgrade at RB than they realized. That maybe the injury to Ware actually was a blessing for KC. Do those outweigh the injury losses they've already sustained? I tend to agree with you that they don't (or at least that it's a wash, the KC offense is better than Vegas/betting public thought but the D is now worse). So yeah, I will probably pass on this game but if I was gonna pick a side I'd probably take the pts.
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Oh, school is absolute torture. The amount of info we cover on a daily basis is a little surreal. I'm already counting down the days until my week off in early October so that i can catch up with all of the material

Regarding Hunt/Ware: I dont think a running back is going to be worth 2 points in Vegas' eyes. I mean, we saw the Giants line move by about 2 points last week when Odell Beckham was announced to be out. Odell is the heart and soul of that offense, seems a little silly to think Hunt is "worth" the same amount as Odell. When Zeke was announced to be playing in week one, the line shifted only 0.5 points i think (at the MOST, maybe 1 point).

I could be jaded with the Eagles, though. I have money on them to win the NFC East and I hit them live for a bit of money last week.

Regarding your Seahawks bet: 49ers actually have a decent front on defense. They held the Panthers in the running game pretty effectively. 14 is a big spread for a team that's shown to be offensively challenged because of poor offensive line play
 
iGnP said:
Oh, school is absolute torture. The amount of info we cover on a daily basis is a little surreal. I'm already counting down the days until my week off in early October so that i can catch up with all of the material

Regarding Hunt/Ware: I dont think a running back is going to be worth 2 points in Vegas' eyes. I mean, we saw the Giants line move by about 2 points last week when Odell Beckham was announced to be out. Odell is the heart and soul of that offense, seems a little silly to think Hunt is "worth" the same amount as Odell. When Zeke was announced to be playing in week one, the line shifted only 0.5 points i think (at the MOST, maybe 1 point).

I could be jaded with the Eagles, though. I have money on them to win the NFC East and I hit them live for a bit of money last week.

Regarding your Seahawks bet: 49ers actually have a decent front on defense. They held the Panthers in the running game pretty effectively. 14 is a big spread for a team that's shown to be offensively challenged because of poor offensive line play
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SF did an okay job last week, but I think that's more a byproduct of Carolina trying to figure out how to use McCaffrey and the fact that they got ultra conservative once they realized the game was never gonna be in jeopardy. PFF prior to the season ranked the SF front 7 DEAD LAST out of 32 teams. I realize that's got some conjecture involved, but still. Over the last 6 games these teams have played at Centurylink, Seattle would have covered 14 four of those 6 games. And this SF team is most likely worse than any of those teams were. Plus Seattle coming off a loss is gonna be out for blood. It's in Pete Carroll's DNA to not ease off the gas (esp at home) in divisional games like this too. I think the Sea offensive line is gonna be a concern for them all season, but I think Wilson's mobility and Seattle's talent advantage with their skill guys vs the 49ers cover guys will mask it this week. And I really don't know how SF scores more than maybe 10 pts, barring a fluke play or two. I agree 14 is a huge line in the NFL, but I think this game is blowout city.
 
mkess101 said:
Generally, I really HATE laying big pts in the NFL. HATE it. But this week my favorite 2 plays are actually hefty faves (one is a ridiculously high # by NFL standards).

TB -7 vs Chicago.

I bet the Bears last week and loved them getting that many pts at home vs Atlanta. Atlanta is so much better at home, and offenses tend to be a little behind defenses early in the season (so laying big pts early in the year can be dumb LOL...yet here I go). But now the Bears travel to Florida to take on Tampa Bay. The Bucs have far more talent than Chicago. They had an extra week to prepare (and by everything I've read the hurricane didn't affect their practice schedule much). They aren't going to be caught off guard by the Bears midget RB secret weapon Cohen. And finally, the Bucs coaching staff knows everything there is to know about Bear's QB Glennon since he played in TB prior to signing with the Bears. In short, I think TB cruises past the Bears here and covers 7 pretty easily.
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I've got Bears +7 for the reason that I think their OL is elevated to top-5 once Kyle Long returns on Sunday, and if you can neutralize the Tampa Bay defense they don't possess many weapons that the Falcons didn't last week. I don't expect the Bears to win but I imagine something like last week happens, or better.

Maybe I'm just trying to comfort myself for taking +7 on my homer team. Dumb fucking idea to bet on teams you're emotionally invested in... I'll try not to do it again.

I've also got Redskins ML and Green Bay ML. Your thoughts?
 
OutRun said:
I've got Bears +7 for the reason that I think their OL is elevated to top-5 once Kyle Long returns on Sunday, and if you can neutralize the Tampa Bay defense they don't possess many weapons that the Falcons didn't last week. I don't expect the Bears to win but I imagine something like last week happens, or better.

Maybe I'm just trying to comfort myself for taking +7 on my homer team. Dumb fucking idea to bet on teams you're emotionally invested in... I'll try not to do it again.

I've also got Redskins ML and Green Bay ML. Your thoughts?
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I won't touch Packers since they are my team. I hope you win that bet though LOL!

I think Skins/Rams is tough to predict. Colts are just awful so hard to know how good Rams actually are. Getting Donald back helps the D a lot though.
 
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GOAT round robin this week
 
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