Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - November, 2016

[mkess101]

Well we knew this about the offense. The defense is very surprising. But I'll chalk that up to Cutler and being unprepared for him and his style. To one of your last points, the Bears are a much better team than their 1-6 record implies. That's why I was itching to bet them but couldn't pull the trigger bc of the missing o lineman. gah

The Bears have some talent on O but man their D is just decimated by injuries. The fact Minnesota looked so bad even against a pedestrian D is very telling. Early in the year people were raving about how quickly Bradford was making decisions, etc. But now that teams are adjusting...like you said he looks like, we'll, Sam Bradford again LOL.

 

[iGnP]

The Bears have some talent on O but man their D is just decimated by injuries. The fact Minnesota looked so bad even against a pedestrian D is very telling. Early in the year people were raving about how quickly Bradford was making decisions, etc. But now that teams are adjusting...like you said he looks like, we'll, Sam Bradford again LOL.

Well, I wouldn't say pedestrian defense. Yesterday's game prob skewed this stat a bit but they're only allowing 5.2 yards per play, which is top ten in the league. They're really not a bad team at all. But man all the Packers fan must be smiling ear to ear watching that game

 

[iGnP]

NBA

I was on the Grizzlies against the T-Wolves in their first games of the year, but I'm flipping sides and taking the T-Wolves to win their first game of the season and cover the 3.5 point spread in the process. This will be the Grizzlies 3rd game in 4 nights (their last game even went into OT) and one has to wonder whether the older bodies in Memphis are going to be able to play hard on the road. It is pretty early in the season but the core of the Grizzlies are all near or over 30 years of age. In their first meeting of the year, the T-Wolves held a 9 point lead in halftime but coughed it up after that. I expect them to be a bit more focused on getting revenge

T-Wolves -3.5 for 2.2u

 

[Soccer Steve]

Oilers play the Leafs in under an hour. Connor McDavid is playing his first NHL game at home in Toronto. He always seems to show up even better (somehow) for these sorts of bigger games.

Do what you will with that information but I'm in for $10 to win $50 on him bagging 2 goals.

 

[EzFlyer]

Oilers play the Leafs in under an hour. Connor McDavid is playing his first NHL game at home in Toronto. He always seems to show up even better (somehow) for these sorts of bigger games.

Do what you will with that information but I'm in for $10 to win $50 on him bagging 2 goals.

Where's that prop?

Im on Edmonton but not tail-worthy. +104. Like Ottawa -130, too.

 

[mkess101]

NBA

I was on the Grizzlies against the T-Wolves in their first games of the year, but I'm flipping sides and taking the T-Wolves to win their first game of the season and cover the 3.5 point spread in the process. This will be the Grizzlies 3rd game in 4 nights (their last game even went into OT) and one has to wonder whether the older bodies in Memphis are going to be able to play hard on the road. It is pretty early in the season but the core of the Grizzlies are all near or over 30 years of age. In their first meeting of the year, the T-Wolves held a 9 point lead in halftime but coughed it up after that. I expect them to be a bit more focused on getting revenge

T-Wolves -3.5 for 2.2u

LOL well...nice call here. 62-36 at the half, I think you are in good shape here...

 

[iGnP]

LOL well...nice call here. 62-36 at the half, I think you are in good shape here...

Helps that they said Gasol and Conley won't be playing like right before the game lol

 

[iGnP]

1.1u on the Blazers +6. Don't think the Warriors are gelling defensively yet and Blazers should stay close w their scoring ability

 

[Soccer Steve]

Where's that prop?

Im on Edmonton but not tail-worthy. +104. Like Ottawa -130, too.

It was Bodog. He had two great chances too. Oh well.

 

[iGnP]

NBA

I was on the Grizzlies against the T-Wolves in their first games of the year, but I'm flipping sides and taking the T-Wolves to win their first game of the season and cover the 3.5 point spread in the process. This will be the Grizzlies 3rd game in 4 nights (their last game even went into OT) and one has to wonder whether the older bodies in Memphis are going to be able to play hard on the road. It is pretty early in the season but the core of the Grizzlies are all near or over 30 years of age. In their first meeting of the year, the T-Wolves held a 9 point lead in halftime but coughed it up after that. I expect them to be a bit more focused on getting revenge

T-Wolves -3.5 for 2.2u

1.1u on the Blazers +6. Don't think the Warriors are gelling defensively yet and Blazers should stay close w their scoring ability

Should have just taken my Wolves win and called it a night but I got greedy. I still think the Warriors are overpriced. Curry just happened to go bat shit in the third quarter. It happens.

I like the Celtics -2.5 tonight. The Bulls are the surprise team of the early year so far. They played each other already in Chicago which resulted in a 6 point Bulls win. Today the Celtics don't have Al Horford but its not like the Bulls have a low post player to worry about. The Celtics did a great job of making the Bulls inefficient in that first meeting but the Bulls hit some clutch threes to seal the deal. I expect the Celtics to win in a great defensive effort today

Celtics -2.5 for 2.2u

 

[piglord]

sevilla/hawks -3/falcons. 75 returns 174.

 

[iGnP]

I like the Celtics -2.5 tonight. The Bulls are the surprise team of the early year so far. They played each other already in Chicago which resulted in a 6 point Bulls win. Today the Celtics don't have Al Horford but its not like the Bulls have a low post player to worry about. The Celtics did a great job of making the Bulls inefficient in that first meeting but the Bulls hit some clutch threes to seal the deal. I expect the Celtics to win in a great defensive effort today

Celtics -2.5 for 2.2u

$$$

 

[EzFlyer]

goffin +160 against cilic tomorrow morning. cilic is coming off of his second title of the year in switzerland but he might be starting to wear down.

goffin moving well, serving well.. he popped 10 aces today in 2 sets..

oh, and btw, they've played 3 times.. all in 2016.. goffin is 3-0.

not calling a +160 line a lock, cilic is on form, himself, but yea, couple units on the belgian. let's get it.

 

[EzFlyer]

pittsburgh is only -110 today and i don't get why. LA literally has ZERO GOALS in their last three games. pitt just smashed anaheim last night 5-1.

3u.

 

[iGnP]

Thursday Night Football: there are some interesting points to this game

1. The Bucs, although by most metrics are a inferior team to the Falcons, have won their previous 3 meetings against the Falcons. I believe the Bucs defensive coordinator used to coach for the Falcons so he can set up a good game plan to counter what the Falcons are good at since he has in depth knowledge of their personnel. How much can he do on a short week? We shall see

2. The Bucs basically have no home field advantage, they are 16-40 ATS in their last 52 home games

3. Although the game didn't end in a tie, the Bucs were involved in a very long game on Sunday against the Raiders. The Raiders offense took 80+ snaps on Sunday (not even including 20 plays that resulted in a penalty!). Teams involved in a tie game are fade material the following week (Seahawks + Cardinals both failed to cover their games last weekend). The Bucs defense must be exhausted and now must play on a short week. I think this is particularly important because the Falcons run a lot of screens and quick passes that require good tackling and hustle by the defense. I can see a tired and lethargic defense being carved out by an offense like this, especially if the Bucs cant generate a pass rush

4. Assuming fumbles are random, the Falcons are a better team at protecting the ball. Winston already has 9 interceptions on the year while Ryan only has 4. The Falcons defense also has more interceptions than the Bucs have on the season so its still likely that the Falcons win the turnover margin unless random fumbles occur. If you want to go one step further, the rookie kicker for the Bucs is 7/12 on field goal attempts this season. A missed field goal is basically a turnover although it doesnt set the other team up with great field position

By doing this write up I think I basically talked myself into wagering on the Falcons. I have concerns, however. The Falcons' defense isn't good, they're allowing 5.6 yards per play. I can definitely see Winston covering the spread with a back door touchdown when the game is out of reach. And you can't really ignore the fact that the Bucs have won the previous 3 games between these two teams.

I'm going to parlay the Falcons ML with the Vikings ML on Sunday at about +120 odds. I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Vikings. The Bears actually have a decent team (for their 2-5 or whatever record, that is) and they were able to take advantage of the Vikings weaknesses on offense. The Lions, conversely, have one of the worst defenses in the league. They allowed Case Keenum to look like Tom Brady only a few weeks ago.

 

[drsidd]

pittsburgh is only -110 today and i don't get why. LA literally has ZERO GOALS in their last three games. pitt just smashed anaheim last night 5-1.

3u.

how do you feel about nas vs ari....basically leaning toward fading domingue as goalie for ari.

 

[drsidd]

Thursday Night Football: there are some interesting points to this game

1. The Bucs, although by most metrics are a inferior team to the Falcons, have won their previous 3 meetings against the Falcons. I believe the Bucs defensive coordinator used to coach for the Falcons so he can set up a good game plan to counter what the Falcons are good at since he has in depth knowledge of their personnel. How much can he do on a short week? We shall see

2. The Bucs basically have no home field advantage, they are 16-40 ATS in their last 52 home games

3. Although the game didn't end in a tie, the Bucs were involved in a very long game on Sunday against the Raiders. The Raiders offense took 80+ snaps on Sunday (not even including 20 plays that resulted in a penalty!). Teams involved in a tie game are fade material the following week (Seahawks + Cardinals both failed to cover their games last weekend). The Bucs defense must be exhausted and now must play on a short week. I think this is particularly important because the Falcons run a lot of screens and quick passes that require good tackling and hustle by the defense. I can see a tired and lethargic defense being carved out by an offense like this, especially if the Bucs cant generate a pass rush

4. Assuming fumbles are random, the Falcons are a better team at protecting the ball. Winston already has 9 interceptions on the year while Ryan only has 4. The Falcons defense also has more interceptions than the Bucs have on the season so its still likely that the Falcons win the turnover margin unless random fumbles occur. If you want to go one step further, the rookie kicker for the Bucs is 7/12 on field goal attempts this season. A missed field goal is basically a turnover although it doesnt set the other team up with great field position

By doing this write up I think I basically talked myself into wagering on the Falcons. I have concerns, however. The Falcons' defense isn't good, they're allowing 5.6 yards per play. I can definitely see Winston covering the spread with a back door touchdown when the game is out of reach. And you can't really ignore the fact that the Bucs have won the previous 3 games between these two teams.

I'm going to parlay the Falcons ML with the Vikings ML on Sunday at about +120 odds. I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Vikings. The Bears actually have a decent team (for their 2-5 or whatever record, that is) and they were able to take advantage of the Vikings weaknesses on offense. The Lions, conversely, have one of the worst defenses in the league. They allowed Case Keenum to look like Tom Brady only a few weeks ago.

i remember the atl vs tb last year mainly because i played atl and lost on it hah. everything is pointing toward atl again...they should win and ML is prob the safer bet, but im leaving it alone. GL on your parlay!

 

[drsidd]

$$$

got any thoughts on ind vs. mil in nba. ind has been kind of disappointing so far and milwaukee seems to doing better than expected for me atleast, but feel like theres too much talent in ind to lose to to milwaukee. feels like a good time to get ind for cheap price against a non playoff team.

 

[iGnP]

got any thoughts on ind vs. mil in nba. ind has been kind of disappointing so far and milwaukee seems to doing better than expected for me atleast, but feel like theres too much talent in ind to lose to to milwaukee. feels like a good time to get ind for cheap price against a non playoff team.

Tough game to cap. Bucks really miss Middleton in the line up. I'd prob need to see both teams more before giving an accurate prediction.

If it's any consolation, I think the Kings and OKC +11.5 are both good plays today. I was actually gonna do a write up on the Thunder-Warriors game but prob won't have time. Cliff notes: Thunder are strong at what Warriors are bad at, Thunder have revenge factor on their mind, GS still super overvalued bc of "super team" stigma, Thunder prob one of top defensive teams in the league. +11.5 is a ton of points. Putting 2.2u on it myself

 

[drsidd]

hm the kings do look good against orl. gsw is tough for me to bet against, partly because theyre my hometown team . but also the potential there in blowing any team out. okc didnt look great last night, but they match up well with warriors. 11.5 is giving too much which has become the norm for warriors and oddsmakers. should be a closer game.
imma try my luck and put 2u on ind and perhaps a bit on sactown. hope we both win!