Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - May, 2017

Haha, hit STL/MIL goes extra innings at +625 for pennies. The fact that I'm even making these bets just shows I should be sticking to MMA and NCAAB
 
barrygood1 said:
It's Monday and it's not a fun day. Grinding NHL and NBA while doing everything in my power to prevent my heart from turning black. Ex-gf woes and that's all I'm disclosing so don't poke or provoke me (not in the mood gentlemen!)

Not a props kinda guy unless I see value. I am always doing my due diligence, while craftily analyzing lines in the laboratory studying my butt off. As they say "hard work pays off" and my monthly wire deposits is a testament to this cause I'm Mr.Money in the bank. Man, I feel like Kanye's song "through the wire" is a perfect representation of my early life as a gambler -- who fell down, got up, only to persevere his way to success. No matter what, external forces cannot keep the kidd down. Not that "Jason with a knife" and not "the coach of the Milwaukee Bucks" whose team is now down and out! I don't know whether or not you should call me a great white shark for relentlessly hammering the bookies. Forget it. Oh crikey, just call me a hammerhead shark it's way more apropos my dudes.

Kevin Love Under 17.5 Points +105 5 Units - V.A.L.U.E enough said. end of discussion. GG

A freebie to start off the week in the green
Lets get it. There's too much money to be made and it's ripe and there for pickin'

- Barry
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Chin up buddy. Moral victory. You only lost the bet by half a point. It doesn't get you your FIVE units back, but gotta try to stay postive right?
 
Warriors win series 4-0 (+170)
risk: 1u
 
Houston Astros (-141) risk: 2.82u

Write up:
Cole Hammels, starting pitcher for the Texas Rangers in this game, may be on the verge of imploding. Through 5 games, he sports a 3.03 ERA (good) but a 5.14 FIP and 5.18 xFIP (bad). If we actually look into why this may be, we come across his strike out to walk rate, which is a glaring 4.13 to 3.31 this season when his career averages are closer to 8 strike outs and 2.4 walks per game. More so, his BABIP this season is at an unsustainable .219.

In layman terms, and to anyone not familiar w saber metrics in baseball, BABIP is the Batting Average of Balls In Play. When a pitcher throws the ball and the ball is hit, where it lands is sort of random. There is a very small margin between landing in an area where the ball will be an out versus where it could be a single or double. Cole Hammels, up to this point in the season, has had very good luck in that his pitches have been hit towards his defenders instead of in areas where they lead to base runners. Again, the low average of .219 is very unsustainable. His career average is closer to the .270 mark. This just means that Hammels is a prime candidate to fade because there will be regression coming

I like the Houston Astros chances of normalizing Hammels' numbers today. First off, the Astros line up has seen Hammels a decent bit prior today, as they have had 164 plate appearances against Hammels in the past, albeit, most of them coming from McCann and Beltran (108 plate appearances combined). But more so than just that, the Astros are one of the best teams in the major leagues at not striking out. With Hammels' low strike out rate this season, its not difficult to see the Astros making a lot of contact with Hammels' pitches. Hopefully today is the day where they are able to find the holes in the defense and turn that hard contact into base runners and scores.

Now, Mike Fiers of the Houston Astros isn't a top tier pitcher by any means. I'd say he's maybe a slightly above average pitcher at best. However, if we take a look at the Rangers' batting average so far this season against right handed pitching, they are at the bottom of the league at a combined .227 but they are a middle of the pack in wRC+. All that really means is: I expect Fiers to go in there and have an average outing. I don't think the chances of him being shelled are pretty high and I expect maybe a 5 K to 2 bb performance over 5-6 innings. It's not spectacular but I believe it will be more than enough if the Houston Astros' line up can rock Hammels around. In a perfect world, I think this line is right where it should be. But with the concerns of Hammels, one has to assume its only a matter of time until this issue comes back to bite him in the ass. Whether he just fell off (not too likely) or whether he's dealing with an injury (much more likely), he cant go on with these numbers so I have to fade him until it normalizes
 
Wizards +5.5

Series prices parlay locked in before game 1
Wizards +145
Rockets +180
 
Hitting Otto Porter o17.5 pts+reb -135. Has had good games on the Celtics and if Washington is smart they'll definitely look to capitalize when IT switches on to him
 
Capn Morgan said:
@EzFlyer you must be feeling a lot better about your washington capitals future this morning;)
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no kidding.. in fact, i added another 20 bux at +1000 right before the game.. i wish i did so much more, haha.

and crosby is out for game 4... i didn't think the niskanen play was dirty, either.. looked kinda accidental/incidental
 
iGnP said:
Houston Astros (-141) risk: 2.82u

Write up:
Cole Hammels, starting pitcher for the Texas Rangers in this game, may be on the verge of imploding. Through 5 games, he sports a 3.03 ERA (good) but a 5.14 FIP and 5.18 xFIP (bad). If we actually look into why this may be, we come across his strike out to walk rate, which is a glaring 4.13 to 3.31 this season when his career averages are closer to 8 strike outs and 2.4 walks per game. More so, his BABIP this season is at an unsustainable .219.

In layman terms, and to anyone not familiar w saber metrics in baseball, BABIP is the Batting Average of Balls In Play. When a pitcher throws the ball and the ball is hit, where it lands is sort of random. There is a very small margin between landing in an area where the ball will be an out versus where it could be a single or double. Cole Hammels, up to this point in the season, has had very good luck in that his pitches have been hit towards his defenders instead of in areas where they lead to base runners. Again, the low average of .219 is very unsustainable. His career average is closer to the .270 mark. This just means that Hammels is a prime candidate to fade because there will be regression coming

I like the Houston Astros chances of normalizing Hammels' numbers today. First off, the Astros line up has seen Hammels a decent bit prior today, as they have had 164 plate appearances against Hammels in the past, albeit, most of them coming from McCann and Beltran (108 plate appearances combined). But more so than just that, the Astros are one of the best teams in the major leagues at not striking out. With Hammels' low strike out rate this season, its not difficult to see the Astros making a lot of contact with Hammels' pitches. Hopefully today is the day where they are able to find the holes in the defense and turn that hard contact into base runners and scores.

Now, Mike Fiers of the Houston Astros isn't a top tier pitcher by any means. I'd say he's maybe a slightly above average pitcher at best. However, if we take a look at the Rangers' batting average so far this season against right handed pitching, they are at the bottom of the league at a combined .227 but they are a middle of the pack in wRC+. All that really means is: I expect Fiers to go in there and have an average outing. I don't think the chances of him being shelled are pretty high and I expect maybe a 5 K to 2 bb performance over 5-6 innings. It's not spectacular but I believe it will be more than enough if the Houston Astros' line up can rock Hammels around. In a perfect world, I think this line is right where it should be. But with the concerns of Hammels, one has to assume its only a matter of time until this issue comes back to bite him in the ass. Whether he just fell off (not too likely) or whether he's dealing with an injury (much more likely), he cant go on with these numbers so I have to fade him until it normalizes
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All that typing and Hamels was scratched with an injury. I guess my speculation was correct. Anyway, the bet is void
 
Live Bet Celtics +115 at the end of the 1st, before the Smith 3 of course which hurt. Porter bet looking poor.

Also on Mets ML-115 and hit Cin/Pit over9 EV for a unit each
 
Dodgers (-173) risk: 1.73u
 
iGnP said:
Dodgers (-173) risk: 1.73u
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I thought about this myself, opted out since I didn't want to pay that much juice and I don't like laying runline for home teams
 
Dingaling said:
I thought about this myself, opted out since I didn't want to pay that much juice and I don't like laying runline for home teams
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I was debating taking the RL last night w Kershaw or playing the ML today with Wood. Opted for the ML because i'm gonna be at the game
 
iGnP said:
I was debating taking the RL last night w Kershaw or playing the ML today with Wood. Opted for the ML because i'm gonna be at the game
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Oh nice, I live about 45 miles away from the stadium. It has the worse stadium parking next to Qualcomm stadium in all of sports lol
 
Yay Celtics, how about Isaiah Thomas.
 
Dingaling said:
Oh nice, I live about 45 miles away from the stadium. It has the worse stadium parking next to Qualcomm stadium in all of sports lol
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Nice we ubered here. Fun game
 
Hit the Boston ML for +235 when they were down! Love to play those quarter ML or the Money line overall when the better team is down and at home.
 
I have Celtics to win the east at +770. Never bet it with the thought that they'd actually win so any thoughts on hedging now while they're up 2-0?

Can get the Cavs -260 and profit as long as they win the east.
 
Lost about $300 last night thanks to the Wizards choking and the Warriors not making one additional basket :/ With about 1 minute left in the Wizards game, I tell my girl, as long as the Wizards keep it within 5 I'll win. She say's "Oh, that might happen. Unless of course the game ends at a tie and it goes into OT and becomes a completely different game..." suffice to say she jinxed it and I didn't talk to her for the rest of the night
 
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