Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by mkess101, Mar 1, 2018.

  1. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Your replies so far are pro Houston will be a more successful team because they’re more talented but you’re not touching on how an iso offense is perfect for the playoffs. As recent playoff history has shown, it’s not difficult to stifle an iso offense because the offense becomes so predictable. That’s why the Toronto Raptors haven’t had success in the playoffs even though they’re always at the top of the Eastern Conference (largely an iso team w Derozan and, to a much lesser degree, Lowry). Same with John Wall and the Wizards. The list goes on and on. If Houston plays SA in the playoffs and you you give me a healthy Spurs team at over +500, id put 2u on that no questions asked
     
  2. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    So Houston is among the highest scoring teams in the league while still playing at the slowest pace. They don't score much in transition (among the longest average time per possession in the league), they rely on iso with Harden and Paul. They don't need to adjust come playoff time, while teams that rely more on getting easy baskets DO have to adjust as the pace slows (as it always does in the playoffs).

    It's predictable yes, but with skilled enough offensive guys that doesn't matter. As shown so far this year. But you need more than 1 or he will just wear down. Toronto makes the eastern conf finals every year and loses to the Cavs who are probably more talented. (They were anyway with Kyrie).

    Yeah maybe a healthy Spurs team at +500 but think about how insane it is we even have to say that given how it was viewed at the start of the season. The Chris Paul/Harden experiment has worked brilliantly and Dantonio has adjusted his style a bit to suit them.
     
  3. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    In my opinion, the reason for their better play is because of their defensive improvement. They went from allowing 106.4 points per 100 possessions (tied for 16th best in the league = "average") to this year allowing 104.5 points per 100 possessions (9th best in the league = "above average"). Now that may not seem a lot, but it was definitely their limiting factor last season as they still rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency to the Dubs. For all the coverage that their offense gets, its not THAT much better in the grand scheme of things.
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I need to look up the stat, but there was an analytics guy on the radio yesterday saying that they have the most efficient end of game offense in the last 11 years in close games. Specifically because they have 2 amazing iso players on the floor surrounded by shooters. I think Harden is just so much better closing out games now that he doesn't have to always carry the load. Paul is special. And Yeah their D improving is huge too. Also a lot due to Paul.
     
  5. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    @iGnP

    Okay here's the "clutch" stats I was talking about in regards to Harden and Paul in "clutch" minutes (late in games where it's close).

    The Rockets, owners of the NBA's best record at 49-13, rarely face such tests but have established themselves as the league's premier closers. Houston entered the week with the NBA's best clutch point differential (plus-48) despite playing the fewest clutch minutes (82), as defined by the score being within five points in the final five minutes of the game.

    Dominant teams rarely rack up clutch minutes during the regular season -- for example, the 2016-17 champion Golden State Warriors played just 100 clutch minutes -- but success with the game at stake bodes well for the Rockets, who have yet to test their new guard combo under playoff pressure.

    But Harden and Paul haven't just hushed any doubt about whether they can coexist in crunch time; they've been great as a clutch duo.

    Rockets 108, opponents 59 is the cumulative score in just 31 clutch minutes that Harden and Paul have played together, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Rockets' offensive efficiency in that time: 161.7 points per 100 possessions.

    Those remarkable numbers make Harden and Paul the most prolific closing 1-2 punch of the more than 5,700 duos who have played at least 30 clutch minutes together since the start of the 2007-08 season, as far back as ESPN Stats & Information's access to on-court/off-court data reaches.

    The secret of the Rockets' clutch success isn't complicated. Houston is by far the NBA's best isolation team, a style that tends to be emphasized more as the pace slows in crunch time (the Rockets actually have ranked last in overall pace since beginning the winning streak on Jan. 28).

    They have the luxury of spacing the floor and deciding (or setting a pick and getting a switch to dictate) which of their Hall of Fame playmakers has the more favorable individual matchup to exploit.

    "We somewhat simplify it," Paul told ESPN after the Rockets finished with a 16-7 run in Saturday night's 120-118 win over the Boston Celtics. "We know where different guys like the ball, and most of the time it's me or James doing the same thing we've been doing the rest of the game. We make the right play. If a guy helps, we kick it to the corner or wherever it may be.

    "But we play the way that we play."

    Harden and Paul have had a hand in 28 of the Rockets' 32 field goals during those 31 clutch minutes together. The co-stars have scored 20 buckets in that span, 16 of which were unassisted, the other four coming on feeds from each other.

     
  6. piglord

    piglord Brown Belt

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    thanks man, a smooth £140 for sitting on my ass like a total bum.
     
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  7. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Boom
     
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  8. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Just woke up to a nice win here. Great play. You the man dawg!
     
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  9. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Well done man. I tailed too. Did 2u getting 3.5 (people were betting Denver I guess?) And 1u ML. Great stuff. Also faded my Bucks vs Houston. Didn't care it was 2nd night of back to back and a road game for Rockets. They are stone cold locked in and the Bucks are fading.
     
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  10. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    For any degens lookingfor an early bet:

    Louisville +6 for 0.5u
     
  11. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Ugh Louisville was so weak today. Lost 3 plus units live betting them up to +15.5

    They were within two with 8 minutes left and rolled over
     
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  12. blokeybloke

    blokeybloke Black belt(w brown shoes)

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    Nice one!

    I've gone 19-5 on live betting the over/unders 2mins into the 2Q of gm's this past 3 days

    Only betting peanuts though, cuz i know fuck all about basketball lol!
     
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  13. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Low confidence but im degen

    Warriors/Spurs o222.5 for 1u
     
  14. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    well, they hit 217 with Curry basically missing the whole game with the ankle injury. I'd like to think the cap was capped correctly and Curry's injury is just a matter of variance. Thank goodness the damage wasn't worse
     
  15. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Green Belt

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    Charl Schwartzel @31.00 2.5u e/w paying 5 places.

    Schwartz looked good yesterday and he has the game required to win on this course, odds are way too big to turn down at this stage.
     
  16. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Big slate of NBA plays today. Not sure I *love* any of them to make them a big wager, but ill prob have 4x 1u-2u plays. Lots of value today imo
     
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  17. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    I'm pretty sure one of your value plays has to be the Houston/Toronto game. I was planning to take Houston at -1.5 but line jumped to -2.5 overnight. So I'm taking the over at 220 for 1u.

    How are you playing it?
     
  18. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Waiting to see if the Raptors hit +3. If they do, ill be on them for about 1.5u. If not, ill be on the Raptors ML for half a unit. Too many points to lay on the road (in a very tough place to play) while on a long road trip. Houston is getting a premium price these days and I dont fully think they should be such favorites over a VERY talented (and underrated) Raptors team
     
  19. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Portland is in a good spot to outright win the game imo. No curry (I prefer yellow over red :p) KD and DG played 39 and 36 minutes respectively.
     
  20. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Total looks better ;) GS playing revenge, even if Curry isn't in the line up
     
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