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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by mkess101, Mar 1, 2018.
Awesome. Charlotte gets outscored 36-19 in the fourth quarter and fail to cover the spread
Squeaked the o218.5 in Pistons game. Went to OT & still made me sweat until final 10 seconds!
On 5 unders for rest of night
LIve bet Utah -11 without towns for 2.2u
Man I forgot the lakers played tonight. I was going to take their ml vs Spurs
Riding their money train
So we’ve got another play off this weekend, Mickelson vs Thomas...
Mickelson @31.00 6u e/w paying 5 places
Hatton @51.00 2.5u e/w paying 5 places
Paisley @201.00 1.5u e/w paying 5 places
Hatton just missed out on the play off by missing his last putt for par.
+28.75 return on Hatton with Mickelson pending.
Haven't bet much college hoops this year but hit Michigan +4.5 for 2u today and their ML +175 for 1u. Man I didn't understand how the game wasn't right near a pick 'em given how Purdue struggled down the stretch and how Michigan played pretty well. Good stuff.
Mickelson wins it mmm baby! +237u
Wait, I'm confused. Can you explain what your bets were? Mickelson won the tourney on a playoff, and you had 6u on him at +3100 to win it on a playoff? Sorry the terminology is different than what I know.
+237u is insanity. I know everyone looks at units differently, but that would literally be more than tripling your BR for a lot of people, which is crazy.
Hey, no those 3 bets I posted in the previous thread before it closed but I couldn't quote them.
6u e/w (12u total) @31.00, with 1/4 odds for the each way.
They were all pre-tournament.
My golf betting units are 1/10th the size of my MMA/Boxing.
+273u this season.
I’m taking a shot on the sixers
Sixers go up 20+ in the first quarter. Blow the lead but enter halftime up 12. Build a 19 point lead in the early stages of the third quarter but end up losing the game by 8 points. I mean, this is becoming nonsense. It was only 0.5u as degen action but I swear I'm cursed for whatever reason. No lead is ever safe!
Cleveland Cavaliers +3 for 3u; +135 for 0.5u
So, you may be asking yourself why I am betting the overrated Cavs against a good team. Have I gone crazy? Maybe. Do I have an angle here? Definitely
The Cavaliers looked good the other night against the Pistons. Now, the Pistons have had their own share of issues since Blake Griffin came to town, but I think their success had a lot more to do with Nance replacing TT in the starting line up. TT is one of the WORST players in terms of plus minus and it’s not really shocking, considering he’s not good at anything and only clogs the lane for Lebron.
The Nuggets are also trying to incorporate Paul Milsap back into their line up after his extended absence due to injury. Since his return, Milsap has a net rating of -11 while the Nuggets are 2-2 straight up, 1-3 ATS w their only cover coming against the struggling Cavaliers (when Tristan was playing)
That’s the next point of confidence- the Cavaliers will be playing the Nuggets in revenge as they lost to them less than a week ago. With the line up change to the Cavaliers, it will be another wrinkle for the Nuggets to adjust to. Advantage: Cavs
The Nuggets also played last night. Tonight will be their second game of a back to back (unfortunately not a third game in four night situation) that could be a little exacerbated because the game tonight will be played in altitude in Denver. The Cavs obviously like to play at a high pace with a lot of shots, I think we could see tired legs in the Nuggets late in the game
Final point: I think this line is a little too inflated. These teams played less than a week ago in Cleveland and the Cavs were -4. They lost the game outright but it was definitely a competitive game, the Nuggets just happened to shoot about 55% from the 3 point line, and that definitely isn’t sustainable. Now the Cavs are +3 when they get the terrible TT out of their line up? Too many variables point to the Cavs being the right side here
If we had a bigger sample size with Nance in the starting line up, this would be a 5u play. That and the fact that the Cavs have been pretty crap this year ATS is keeping me from going more than 3.5u.
I did .5u on Houston to win the NBA championship. Barring an injury, I don't give anyone outside the Warriors much chance of beating the Rockets in a series. Their iso heavy offense is perfect for the playoffs where things slow down.
I absolutely still favor GS against Houston but I've increased what I think the Rockets chances are to probably 35% or so of winning that series.
I dont disagree w you on Houston being the only team to give GS a fight, but where did you come up w iso heavy offenses being perfect for the playoffs? That's 100% conjecture..
I think it is. The games slow down so much. From what I've seen (aside from maybe GS because they have soon many guys with way above average talent on the floor at once) there's way more iso in the playoffs. Teams get back on defense better is probably the main reason. Less easy transition baskets as teams play a bit harder. More half court possessions where iso and pick and roll are frequent with such a short shot clock.
Harden literally has a losing record in the playoffs while being a member of the Rockets
Yep. But no Chris Paul to take pressure off on a lot of possessions and give him a breather. Plus Cappela a way better big than he's played with.
But now you're talking about Houston as a team, not iso-ball. Harden's career in the postseason w the Rockets is 41.3% shooting (32.3% from 3) w/ 7 assists and 4.7 TOs per game. Iso ball definitely gets harder in the playoffs, especially when refs swallow their whistles and allow all the ticky tack fouls that Harden draws in the regular season
Mickelson @31.00 6u e/w Winner
Hatton @51.00 2.5u e/w Placed
Paisley @201.00 1.5u e/w Loss
Tomorrow we go to the Valspar Championship in Florida and I’ve got a few picks I think will go well at generous odds...
Henrick Stenson @21.00 3u e/w paying 8 places
Adam Hadwin @34.00 3u e/w paying 7 places
Like Donald @176.00 2u e/w paying 7 places.
I haven’t had a lot of time to study or give a write up as to why these are my plays because my wife gave birth to our first baby last Friday and we’ve been in hospital since because the little man was 4 weeks premature
But he’s doing well and I hope we will get out tomorrow!
I will post any in play bets if any are made
Right but my point is that if you just have one guy doing it he's gonna wear down. Can't iso one guy for 48 minutes on every possession right? Paul is a brilliant iso player too. Harden has been much more efficient at the end of close games this year. I don't think it's a coincidence that it's the year Paul arrived. I think he gets more offensive possessions off now and is fresher at the end of games.
Cappella matters as much on defense as anything (and rebounding).
I'd also argue that the complimentary players are shooting the ball way better than the past (obviously Paul is a big reason why). When they iso Harden and he breaks down the defense off the dribble and they are forced to rotate, guys need to make shots. They have all season, and I don't have any reason to think that will stop in the playoffs.