Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by iGnP, Jun 2, 2018.
Astros -0.5 first five innings
Don't need to convince me to jump on the Verlander train. I've ridden it to huge profits so far. At some point there's gonna be regression, but I'm not gonna try to guess when it will be. Price has pitched a little better recently, but Verlander is just in one of those all-time grooves right now. I'm with you, taking first five too since Astros bullpen hasn't been amazing lately (even though they've been good overall this year).
I'm also taking Brewers/White Sox o9 and Brewers first five innings o2.5.
Brewers are definitely on live bet watch if they fall behind. I dont like Chacin but the Brewers have a much superior bullpen. White Sox hit RHP pretty well, all things considered, so it's not outlandish to think they can get an early lead
I also have a ballsy play but I think the odds are a bit off
Orioles first five innings +155
Not horrible honestly. It's +159 now, I think I'll tail it for .75u.
Gausman has had a bizarre year. He's pretty much either been fantastic or horrible in most of his starts. Very few where he's been average. If today is a "good" day, good chance he'll shut down the Yanks. I don't love that he's been shelled in 2 of his last 3 outings, but the other one he pitched extremely well so...who knows? Tanaka has been fairly average lately.
Yea that's basically my reasoning. I dont think it's far off to say Gausman is pitching better than Tanaka right now, so a home dog of +150 in a first five situation makes a lot of sense to me
Phillies frist five innings +105 makes zero sense. Yeah, Phillies best hitter Hoskins is out. But Suarez last 4 starts has given up 5, 4, 5, 3 ER. That's pitching 4, 6, 4, 5 innings in those starts. Yuck. Velasquez for Philly has given up 3, 0, 1, 2 ER in his last 4 games. That's in 6, 6.1, 4.1, and 5.2 innings in those starts. Not bad at all.
No clue why Phillies would be dogs for first five here. Playing them 2.5u.
Suarez has a fantastic K to BB ratio, which is what drives odds. Not saying it's a bad play, but if you take that into consideration, it definitely makes sense. On the season, he's almost at a 5 to 1 k to bb ratio
It's a misleading stat though. He is the textbook definition of a guy with mediocre stuff who's what I call "wild in the strike zone". Meaning yes, he's only walked 6 guys over his last 4 starts (19 innings). So that's good. What's not good? He's given up a whopping 27 hits over those 19 innings (YIKES!). 19 K's sounds nice over that time frame (1 K per inning), but the issue is that hitters are able to swing (and swing hard) at almost everything because he's over the middle of the plate so much. He's gonna get some K's by default throwing that many strikes, but he's also gonno keep getting knocked around until he gives hitters a bit more to think about.
Hits are random, though. A well hit ball can go straight to an outfielder for an out or it can go two feet to the right and result in a triple. There's absolutely zero way to predict that. Also has a lot to do with the defense behind him limiting mistakes and converting tough plays to outs.
I know for a fact that k to bb ratio and %s are how books place value on certain pitchers. If you can find a fallacy with certain pitchers (high % ground ball pitchers like Freeland, for instance), then you can exploit the books. But more often than not, it's a pretty good metric because that's what pitchers can effectively control, strike outs and walks
If my quick math is correct, Suarez has struck out 23.9% of the total batters he's faced on the season while walking 5.2%. Velasquez has struck out 28.5% of the batters he's faced and walked 8.5%. So the pitching #s aren't that far off. Then if you look at the two line ups, Giants versus LHP and Phillies versus RHP, you see that the Giants probably have a small advantage there, too. Again, not saying it's a bad play by any means, but under those metrics, the line is prob accurately priced
So I'm not saying K/BB ratio is meaningless (it's definitely not), but like anything else it can't be used as a stand alone (meaning there needs to be context). Yes, hits CAN be random. K/BB is what pitchers can control, to a degree. But with Suarez it's a trend. There's nowhere yet that I know of that tracks hard-hit ball rates for pitchers, but I'd almost guarantee (from what I've seen) that Suarez gives up a disproportionately high % of hard hit balls. And while it can't specifically predict exactly how it translates to hits, I don't think we need to be geniuses to figure out that the more hard contact you give up, in general the more hits you are going to give up. The fact he's given up 7 HR in 7 starts (while averaging just over 5 IP per start) backs this up. I'm not saying that in general K/BB shouldn't be something books use when setting lines, but it's not the be-all end-all. If that's the main reason this line is set this way, I'm saying that's a mistake.
but there is
filter based on whatever, average exit velocity or # of hard hit balls, Suarez is pretty average in those regards
Nice, was searching for that and couldn't find it. I also should have clarified, I was talking about his last 4 starts only. YTD, you're right, he's slightly worse than the MLB average. But in his first 3 starts he gave up 15 total hits over 17.2 innings (pretty good). In his last 4 he's given up 27 over 19 innings (horrendous). That's a big spike. I tried to see if I could get a breakdown from that site you linked to show game by game statcast breakdown but I'm not seeing it. I'm guessing that with that giant spike in hits per inning he's given up, his hard hit against #'s have gotten worse as well. It's possible it's purely luck I suppose, but it's not 1 or 2 games now. It's 4 in a row. Which makes me think it's unlikely that he's simply getting unlucky all the time now but was much luckier the first 3 games.
Took a shot at Indians live +178. Lynn has played with fire and survived only giving up 1 so far, but the potential is still there for him to implode. Esp against a good Indians lineup. Was hoping for +200 with Indians down 3-1 but I'll settle for this.
Gausman has struck out 6 through 3 innings but unfortunately has given up 2x 2-run home runs. Yankees have made him pay with for two mistakes. bleh
Day baseball not going well. At all.
Won on Brewers -1.5 but lost on Brewers overs and Balt first five and my live Indians bet both look dead in the water.
Gonna head out and see a movie in a bit, hoping Astros get it done in first 5 to start a turnaround tonight.
I dont think making a small investment in Cavs +1100 to win the NBA championship is the worst idea. It seems as though Klay Thompson is having lingering problems with that knee and he may have to miss time and/or play hurt. Now I think the Warriors are a far superior team to the Cavaliers but with Iguodala already out and potentially missing most of the series, the Warriors are suddenly a pretty thin team when factoring in Klay's injury.
Ugh Phillies with 2 good scoring chances and don't push one across. Luckily Velasquez gave up nothing too so I push my first five innings bet.
To be fair, I was fading Suarez and he was great tonight. Even the great scoring chance the Phillies had in the 5th inning was due to a slow roller for a base hit, then a bloop single, then another ball hit too softly to turn the double play which set up first and third with one out. Then Suarez struck out the next 2 guys. So he proved me wrong tonight, he pitched very well after 4 pretty bad outings in a row.
MLB today so far:
Nationals ML +110 for 2u
Not really sure why Braves with Anibal Sanchez are favored over Nats with Hellickson here.
Rays first five innings o2 for 2u
Fade King Felix has been nothing but profits every time over the last month. No reason to not try it again.
No Harper or Adams for Nats
Separate names with a comma.