Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - July, 2017

[JDB]

Not feeling so confident on Youzhny after looking a bit deeper in to recent matchups. I give Mahut shit but he is a great player. I'll still back Youzhny or pass but there's easier money to be made on other matches.

Eg. Berdych + Tipsarevic + someone (Rublev or Lopez perhaps.)

M.zverev at even $ was gonna be my 3rd play today till i realized they just played on grass, super surprised he lost the way he did, but i didn't watch it. but if i'm gonna look at past results (and recent ones at that), i gotta make this a pass. otherwise why even check into them, right?

and yep, thiem might be worn out from all that clay, honestly... i can see a shot at popsicle man

my first two bets of wimbledon are:
1.15u ferrer +2.5 sets -115 -- i mean the dude is 9-3 head to head overall against gasquet, c'mon! i'm aware he's lost a step but giving me near evens for him to edge a single frame? i'm in

1.05u chardy-berdych O37.0 -105. i expect a tiebreak or two here. if chardy can pull a set out it should for sure hit 37. if somehow he does and it's U37 i'll kick myself for not just doing chardy +2.5 -133, but i'd rather keep that 28 cents on the dollar for that risk (cause he ain't 3-0ing berdych, haha)

Ferrer is playing well, I can tell you that much. He just had a really close battle with Sugita. Gasquet recently destroyed Hasse whereas Haase recently cruised through Ferrer, it's like MMA Math I know but still, bit of a red flag?

Berdych, yeah I can't see him losing but I do see it potentially being a long ass match, maybe even 5 sets. Berdych recently beat Rafa in a grass exhibition for what that's worth, so he must be in good form.

 

[Antagonist88]

Got some action on the Hot Dog Eating Contest today, haha.

1u on 1st: Chestnut, 2nd: Stonie, 3rd: Cincotti. -160
And 0.1u on Field > Stonie and Chesnut (Aka Cincotti shocks the world) at +4000

Pissed I didn't take Cincotti > Esper when it was -240

 

[timmyclax22]

Didn't pull the trigger on any Wimby futures yet but have a few losers to kick Monday off.

Shapovalov (+105) .952 to win 1u
Gojowczyk (-105) + Thompson (-140) .425 to win 1u.

Both losers. Knew I should've stayed away. -1.377u.

@EzFlyer nice call on Ferrer and @JDB nice call on Youzhny.

 

[Monster Meat]

yankees -102
colorado first 5 -160

 

[ill800]

10 dollar run lines

Mets
Giants
Yankees
Red Sox
Astros

Multiple parlays dodgers/Indians ml and run line and mixed

 

[timmyclax22]

Think I like Pospisil +185 quite a bit but only going in to win 1u.

 

[JDB]

I ended up passing on Pospisil. Just dunno how Thiem can beat Fed on grass one year but lose to some rank 200... chalk it up to a very bad day.

I should of just tailed you on Ferrer there EzFlyer. That was a BIG dog, hope you put a decent wager on him buddy.

 

[iGnP]

If you thought you were a degen...

 

[timmyclax22]

Pospisil looks terrible coming in to the net 100x.

 

[iGnP]

Only Independence Day play for me:

Astros/Braves F5 u5 (-112) risk: 1u

I think both of these pitchers might have good success through the first (and maybe second) time through the order. The Astros lose a hitter since it's in a National League park so that obviously helps the under. I don't trust the Atlanta bullpen that's why I'm only going for the under in the first five innings. Not a very strong lean, but I think its worth a shot

 

[onC]

If you thought you were a degen...

What makes that so "degen"? Surely that guy thinks/knows he has an edge?

 

[onC]

I see alot of you are betting MLB. What kind of ROI's are you guys achieving, and over what kind of sample size?

Edit: or are most of you just betting for fun, considering that MLB is the toughest league in the world to beat?

 

[iGnP]

What makes that so "degen"? Surely that guy thinks/knows he has an edge?

Apparently he didn't, Chestnut only got to 72 wieners

I see alot of you are betting MLB. What kind of ROI's are you guys achieving, and over what kind of sample size?

Edit: or are most of you just betting for fun, considering that MLB is the toughest league in the world to beat?

Baseball is probably the easiest major sport to make money in. My log is in my sig. this is the first year I've bet baseball every day but admittedly I put a lot of time into making a model prior to the season starting

 

[EzFlyer]

I ended up passing on Pospisil. Just dunno how Thiem can beat Fed on grass one year but lose to some rank 200... chalk it up to a very bad day.

I should of just tailed you on Ferrer there EzFlyer. That was a BIG dog, hope you put a decent wager on him buddy.

nope, didn't hit his +500 or +600 ML whatever it was, heh.. just the +2.5 sets.

tho it's still a 2-0 start to wimbledon for me .. i'll take it!

 

[8oh5]

Astros 130 to win 100 only bet today.

 

[iGnP]

Astros 130 to win 100 only bet today.

Any idea why the odds dropped so much?

 

[8oh5]

Any idea why the odds dropped so much?

The only thing I can think of Is the braves activated their 3rd baseman this morning and is expected to play.
Newcomb was always slated to start right?

 

[iGnP]

The only thing I can think of Is the braves activated their 3rd baseman this morning and is expected to play.
Newcomb was always slated to start right?

Yeah he's been the probable starter for a few days now. I thought the Astros were missing someone but everyone's playing according to their line up. Very suspect

 

[Bjjpitbull8]

Looking at Rocks -140

 

[timmyclax22]

Pospisil looks terrible coming in to the net 100x.

After being on fire the last 3 weeks I'm 0-3 to start Wimbledon.