Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - January, 2018 | Page 31

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by LogicalInsanity, Jan 1, 2018.

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  1. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    This is laughable. You're arguing that Indy to win the east when 1. They have a shit record against the collective eastern conference teams but that doesn't seem to bother you 2. You discount teams like the raptors and celtics when theyre CLEARLY far superior to the pacers, and 3. You're creating this narrative of expecting this team to just continue to improve throughout the year into a juggernaut when it's HIGHLY unlikely and there's zero reason to believe it's possible. In fact, its probably more likely that they regress

    You bet on them to win the east, not to be a >.500 win or playoff team. if you sit there with your bet and the pacers dont make it out of the first round, do you think the bet is +EV? Hell, i wouldnt be that confident in them making the playoffs, honestly. Vegas seems to think they wont, as they have the 9th highest implied probability of winning the East as of right now even though they are currently in 6th place (regression coming into play, maybe?).

    All things considered, unless they get the most ideal scenario in the playoffs, theyre gonna have to go through 2 of the elite eastern conference teams in order for you to cash your ticket. Both times, they'd prob gonna be something like +500 to +800 to win the series. Unless they somehow finish in the 4 seed, they're guaranteed to be an underdog in the first round, too. So idk what to tell you. The odds add up
     
    #601
  2. quincy k Brown Belt

    quincy k
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    they dont have to win the east. you can theoretically start free rolling a 100/1 after the first round.

    if they get to the east conference finals, everything being equal to how shit the east currently is, the cs, toronto, miami, wash, det, pi and mi are all -500s in a seven game series at best wiht the pacers being very deep in the frontcourt, without discounting indys upside for the reasons that i already laid out, the cavs maybe -800

    you say that the pacers have one quality player, one above average and the rest mediocre or bad, im assuming turner being the above average, who some had projected as a top ten center before the year

    http://hoopshype.com/2017/09/25/we-have-projected-the-top-30-centers-for-2017-18/

    in what world would veterans thaddeus and collison be considered bad?

    they both shoot close to 50 percent from the field, over 35 percent from the 3 and have 15 and 18.5 pers, respectively

    and how is a 2nd year player like sabonis, 11th pick overall who has yet to develop and whose potential is relatively unknown and currently sporting an 18.5 per, automatically mediocre or bad?

    you dont play a lot of underdogs, no?

    in doing so, you have to look a lot deeper than whats on the surface
     
    #602
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2018
  3. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Did you really quote me a PER rating? That’s the most flawed metric one can use to quantify an NBA player because it really only caters to fantasy stats and usage. LOL I cant believe I have to explain this shit to you

    Lebron James has the fourth highest PER in the league but while hes been on the court this season, the Cavaliers have been outscored by their opponent by 29 points. Did you know he allows the most points to opposing players per 48 minutes? Did you know he's having his worst defensive year of his career? PER sure as hell wont tell you that

    https://www.foxsports.com/nba/cleveland-cavaliers-team-stats?season=2017&category=MISC&time=0

    {<jordan}

    No wonder none of this is getting through to you. You're still stuck in the ideas that ppg and fg% defines a player. Sabonis is an awful defensive rating and he's only slightly above average in terms of offense. Myles Turner wasn't the above average player that I quoted, it was Thad. Myles Turner, who has all the potential in the world, still isnt there. His plus minus is lower than the teams total point differential for the season, essentially meaning that (although very slightly) the team is performing better when HE'S NOT IN. The difference between him playing and not playing is probably half a point to the spread

    I'm done wasting my time on this.
     
    #603
  4. quincy k Brown Belt

    quincy k
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    wait a minute

    are you insinuating that lebron is not one of the four best players in the nba right now per his per?

    because other than yourself, youre not going to find a single person that doesnt correlate his fourth best per with him being the fourth best player.

    here is the highest pers in the nba right now and i think most would agree that they correlate their rankings to their value as players in the nba

    http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

    if thats not enough for you here is espns rankings

    http://www.espn.com/nba/seasonleaders/_/league/nba

    indiana has five of their players in the top 100, including 2nd year sabonis, wheraes the celtics only have three.

    so if you cant see that a green indy team has the players to put it all together at 100/1 i dont know what to tell you other than youre having another nick foles moment here
     
    #604
  5. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Again, completely went over your head. I said I was done with this and you're continuing to spout absolute nonsense. Off to the ignore list you go!
     
    #605
  6. quincy k Brown Belt

    quincy k
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    wait a minute

    now espn hollinger ratings and espn nba player ratings are absolute nonsense?

    oh my

    youre not having a nick foles moment, youre having a god moment

     
    #606
  7. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Of course its a flawed metric. It literally only caters to statistics you'd find on a box score and has a biased rating towards players with high usage rates. It assigns arbitrary numbers to all statistics that have no merit. It's a dumb dumb statistic people use to try and sound smart.

    It's a statistic that's more applicable for fantasy purposes than it is a representation of real player value
     
    #607
  8. Monster Meat Green Belt

    Monster Meat
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    Money line parlay tonight -139
    Odds

    Arizona ml
    Arizona State ml
    Witchita State ml
    Purdue ml
     
    #608
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  9. quincy k Brown Belt

    quincy k
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    hollinger metric is flawed, i believe that he himself actually admits it, it is swayed to offense more than defense, why bruce bowen was consistently sub 10

    metrics or no metrics i like the 100/1 indy play with the notion of hedging the last leg if it gets there.
     
    #609
  10. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    FWIW I think the Heat are gonna smack the Kings tonight
     
    #610
  11. Naught2Sixty Green Belt

    Naught2Sixty
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    Totes. I hit -9.5 for 1u and I fully expect to lose lol
     
    #611
  12. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    With my recent run, I think we're doomed :p
     
    #612
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  13. Naught2Sixty Green Belt

    Naught2Sixty
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    Cool of Miami to give up 10 points in the 4th. -1u. The NBA gods are vicious this week.
     
    #613
  14. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    I'll probably be on Dallas ML today. Ill wait to bet it, i dont mind if it goes to pick em and ill be happier taking more + money

    but you know what that mean... portland is obviously going to win. probably in devastating fashion like dallas blowing a 20 point fourth quarter lead

    #cooler
     
    #614
  15. Monster Meat Green Belt

    Monster Meat
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    Money line parlay for today -132 odds

    North Carolina ml
    Butler ml
    Kansas ml
     
    #615
  16. Monster Meat Green Belt

    Monster Meat
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    Damn Tar Heels new one

    Butler ml
    Kansas ml
    Arizona ml
     
    #616
  17. Monster Meat Green Belt

    Monster Meat
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    Cash em
     
    #617
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  18. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    wow props to fedGOAT, 20th grandslam...has to be one of the top sportsmen in history now if not the best, amazing he can do this at like 37
     
    #618
  19. quincy k Brown Belt

    quincy k
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    playing bucks first quarter. hopefully the bulls continue to bring mircotic and portis off the bench, arguably their two best players
     
    #619
  20. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    keep fading, im on a laughable cold streak

    Pelicans -2.5
     
    #620
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