Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - January, 2018

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quincy k said:
well no shit they are a combined 4-10, if they were 8-10 and on pace to win 55 then the fuk all that i would be getting 100/1 to win the east

look at okc with proven all star vets george and carmelo, more or less a 500 team before their recent five game win streak, whereas they won 57 percent of their games last year. indy has three new starters, four if sabonis can slide to the four and thaddeus moves to the three, so its going to take time. like i said, all their starters shoot in the high 40s and 1-4 can all shoot the 3.

and the east sucks.

i like their current roster now but if they somehow can get kemba and howard...indys a +2000 to win the east

https://hoopshabit.com/2018/01/22/nba-trade-rumors-7-potential-kemba-walker-trades/6/
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This is laughable. You're arguing that Indy to win the east when 1. They have a shit record against the collective eastern conference teams but that doesn't seem to bother you 2. You discount teams like the raptors and celtics when theyre CLEARLY far superior to the pacers, and 3. You're creating this narrative of expecting this team to just continue to improve throughout the year into a juggernaut when it's HIGHLY unlikely and there's zero reason to believe it's possible. In fact, its probably more likely that they regress

You bet on them to win the east, not to be a >.500 win or playoff team. if you sit there with your bet and the pacers dont make it out of the first round, do you think the bet is +EV? Hell, i wouldnt be that confident in them making the playoffs, honestly. Vegas seems to think they wont, as they have the 9th highest implied probability of winning the East as of right now even though they are currently in 6th place (regression coming into play, maybe?).

All things considered, unless they get the most ideal scenario in the playoffs, theyre gonna have to go through 2 of the elite eastern conference teams in order for you to cash your ticket. Both times, they'd prob gonna be something like +500 to +800 to win the series. Unless they somehow finish in the 4 seed, they're guaranteed to be an underdog in the first round, too. So idk what to tell you. The odds add up
 
iGnP said:
This is laughable. You're arguing that Indy to win the east when 1. They have a shit record against the collective eastern conference teams but that doesn't seem to bother you 2. You discount teams like the raptors and celtics when theyre CLEARLY far superior to the pacers, and 3. You're creating this narrative of expecting this team to just continue to improve throughout the year into a juggernaut when it's HIGHLY unlikely and there's zero reason to believe it's possible. In fact, its probably more likely that they regress

You bet on them to win the east, not to be a >.500 win or playoff team. if you sit there with your bet and the pacers dont make it out of the first round, do you think the bet is +EV? Hell, i wouldnt be that confident in them making the playoffs, honestly. Vegas seems to think they wont, as they have the 9th highest implied probability of winning the East as of right now even though they are currently in 6th place (regression coming into play, maybe?).

All things considered, unless they get the most ideal scenario in the playoffs, theyre gonna have to go through 2 of the elite eastern conference teams in order for you to cash your ticket. Both times, they'd prob gonna be something like +500 to +800 to win the series. Unless they somehow finish in the 4 seed, they're guaranteed to be an underdog in the first round, too. So idk what to tell you. The odds add up
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they dont have to win the east. you can theoretically start free rolling a 100/1 after the first round.

if they get to the east conference finals, everything being equal to how shit the east currently is, the cs, toronto, miami, wash, det, pi and mi are all -500s in a seven game series at best wiht the pacers being very deep in the frontcourt, without discounting indys upside for the reasons that i already laid out, the cavs maybe -800

you say that the pacers have one quality player, one above average and the rest mediocre or bad, im assuming turner being the above average, who some had projected as a top ten center before the year

http://hoopshype.com/2017/09/25/we-have-projected-the-top-30-centers-for-2017-18/

in what world would veterans thaddeus and collison be considered bad?

they both shoot close to 50 percent from the field, over 35 percent from the 3 and have 15 and 18.5 pers, respectively

and how is a 2nd year player like sabonis, 11th pick overall who has yet to develop and whose potential is relatively unknown and currently sporting an 18.5 per, automatically mediocre or bad?

you dont play a lot of underdogs, no?

in doing so, you have to look a lot deeper than whats on the surface
 
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quincy k said:
they dont have to win the east. you can theoretically start free rolling a 100/1 after the first round.

if they get to the east conference finals, everything being equal to how shit the east currently is, the cs, toronto, miami, wash, det, pi and mi are all -500s in a seven game series at best wiht the pacers being very deep in the frontcourt, without discounting indys upside for the reasons that i already laid out, the cavs maybe -800

you say that the pacers have one quality player, one above average and the rest mediocre or bad, im assuming turner being the above average, who some had projected as a top ten center before the year

http://hoopshype.com/2017/09/25/we-have-projected-the-top-30-centers-for-2017-18/

in what world would veterans thaddeus and collison be considered mediocre or bad?

they both shoot close to 50 percent from the field, over 35 percent from the 3 and have 15 and 18.5 pers, respectively

and how is a 2nd year player like sabonis, 11th pick overall who has yet to develop and whose potential is relatively unknown and currently sporting an 18.5 per, automatically mediocre or bad?

you dont play a lot of underdogs, no?

in doing so, you have to look a lot deeper than whats on the surface
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Did you really quote me a PER rating? That’s the most flawed metric one can use to quantify an NBA player because it really only caters to fantasy stats and usage. LOL I cant believe I have to explain this shit to you

Lebron James has the fourth highest PER in the league but while hes been on the court this season, the Cavaliers have been outscored by their opponent by 29 points. Did you know he allows the most points to opposing players per 48 minutes? Did you know he's having his worst defensive year of his career? PER sure as hell wont tell you that

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/cleveland-cavaliers-team-stats?season=2017&category=MISC&time=0

{<jordan}

No wonder none of this is getting through to you. You're still stuck in the ideas that ppg and fg% defines a player. Sabonis is an awful defensive rating and he's only slightly above average in terms of offense. Myles Turner wasn't the above average player that I quoted, it was Thad. Myles Turner, who has all the potential in the world, still isnt there. His plus minus is lower than the teams total point differential for the season, essentially meaning that (although very slightly) the team is performing better when HE'S NOT IN. The difference between him playing and not playing is probably half a point to the spread

I'm done wasting my time on this.
 
iGnP said:
Did you really quote me a PER rating? That’s the most flawed metric one can use to quantify an NBA player because it really only caters to fantasy stats and usage. LOL I cant believe I have to explain this shit to you

Lebron James has the fourth highest PER in the league but while hes been on the court this season, the Cavaliers have been outscored by their opponent by 29 points. Did you know he allows the most points to opposing players per 48 minutes? Did you know he's having his worst defensive year of his career? PER sure as hell wont tell you that

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/cleveland-cavaliers-team-stats?season=2017&category=MISC&time=0

{<jordan}

No wonder none of this is getting through to you. You're still stuck in the ideas that ppg and fg% defines a player. Sabonis is an awful defensive rating and he's only slightly above average in terms of offense. Myles Turner wasn't the above average player that I quoted, it was Thad. Myles Turner, who has all the potential in the world, still isnt there. His plus minus is lower than the teams total point differential for the season, essentially meaning that (although very slightly) the team is performing better when HE'S NOT IN. The difference between him playing and not playing is probably half a point to the spread

I'm done wasting my time on this.
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wait a minute

are you insinuating that lebron is not one of the four best players in the nba right now per his per?

because other than yourself, youre not going to find a single person that doesnt correlate his fourth best per with him being the fourth best player.

here is the highest pers in the nba right now and i think most would agree that they correlate their rankings to their value as players in the nba

http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

if thats not enough for you here is espns rankings

http://www.espn.com/nba/seasonleaders/_/league/nba

indiana has five of their players in the top 100, including 2nd year sabonis, wheraes the celtics only have three.

so if you cant see that a green indy team has the players to put it all together at 100/1 i dont know what to tell you other than youre having another nick foles moment here
 
quincy k said:
wait a minute

are you insinuating that lebron is not one of the four best players in the nba right now per his per?

because other than yourself, youre not going to find a single person that doesnt correlate his fourth best per with him being the fourth best player.

here is the highest pers in the nba right now and i think most would agree that they correlate their rankings to their value as players in the nba

http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

if thats not enough for you here is espns rankings

http://www.espn.com/nba/seasonleaders/_/league/nba

indiana has five of their players in the top 100, including 2nd year sabonis, wheraes the celtics only have three.

so if you cant see that a green indy team has the players to put it all together at 100/1 i dont know what to tell you other than youre having another nick foles moment here
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Again, completely went over your head. I said I was done with this and you're continuing to spout absolute nonsense. Off to the ignore list you go!
 
iGnP said:
Again, completely went over your head. I said I was done with this and you're continuing to spout absolute nonsense. Off to the ignore list you go!
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wait a minute

now espn hollinger ratings and espn nba player ratings are absolute nonsense?

oh my

youre not having a nick foles moment, youre having a god moment

 
quincy k said:
wait a minute

now espn hollinger ratings and espn nba player ratings are absolute nonsense?

oh my

youre not having a nick foles moment, youre having a god moment
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Of course its a flawed metric. It literally only caters to statistics you'd find on a box score and has a biased rating towards players with high usage rates. It assigns arbitrary numbers to all statistics that have no merit. It's a dumb dumb statistic people use to try and sound smart.

It's a statistic that's more applicable for fantasy purposes than it is a representation of real player value
 
Money line parlay tonight -139
Odds

Arizona ml
Arizona State ml
Witchita State ml
Purdue ml
 
iGnP said:
Of course its a flawed metric. It literally only caters to statistics you'd find on a box score and has a biased rating towards players with high usage rates. It assigns arbitrary numbers to all statistics that have no merit. It's a dumb dumb statistic people use to try and sound smart.

It's a statistic that's more applicable for fantasy purposes than it is a representation of real player value
Click to expand...


hollinger metric is flawed, i believe that he himself actually admits it, it is swayed to offense more than defense, why bruce bowen was consistently sub 10

metrics or no metrics i like the 100/1 indy play with the notion of hedging the last leg if it gets there.
 
FWIW I think the Heat are gonna smack the Kings tonight
 
Cool of Miami to give up 10 points in the 4th. -1u. The NBA gods are vicious this week.
 
I'll probably be on Dallas ML today. Ill wait to bet it, i dont mind if it goes to pick em and ill be happier taking more + money

but you know what that mean... portland is obviously going to win. probably in devastating fashion like dallas blowing a 20 point fourth quarter lead

#cooler
 
Money line parlay for today -132 odds

North Carolina ml
Butler ml
Kansas ml
 
wow props to fedGOAT, 20th grandslam...has to be one of the top sportsmen in history now if not the best, amazing he can do this at like 37
 
playing bucks first quarter. hopefully the bulls continue to bring mircotic and portis off the bench, arguably their two best players
 
keep fading, im on a laughable cold streak

Pelicans -2.5
 
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