Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - April, 2017

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    I'm getting out of my McCaffrey bet now that the odds are moved a good deal. I've learned that there may be some trading that could screw his draft position

    2.03u on the o8.5 draft position (-175) for a net profit of 0.16u

    Thanks for the chedda, 5d
     
  2. PuertoRican

    PuertoRican Silver Belt

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    Game 1 of Anaheim vs. Edmonton goes down in 1.5 hours.

    Anaheim series price went from -120 to -118.

    Anaheim to win Game 1 went from -130 to -144.

    Edmonton played 6 games in Round 1, while Anaheim played 4 games.

    Anaheim has home ice advantage, so expect to pay a lot of juice if and when Anaheim wins tonight.
     
  3. Slohog

    Slohog Green Belt

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    Dota major

    So "Bing Predicts" is apparently a thing and someone posted this on reddit:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/67sd2j/you_called_and_bing_listened_kiev_major/

    It says IG vs Mouse is 57/43 while odds have IG as a -600 favorite or so.

    It says DC is 70% or so against VG.J despite being small dogs (+120 or so).

    It says VP vs IG.V is more or less a flip, VP is -600 or so.

    It has Liquid vs Newbee as a flip, which odds agress with.

    They have OG as small favorites over (56%) Random (-250), EG as a flip vs TB (-180) and Secret as 60/40 vs SGE (-2000).

    I think it has a point on the DC vs VG.J game where I think it only slightly overestimates DC but still is on the right side. I really think it's retardedly off on the Secret vs SGE game. There's no fucking way a team that's arguably not even top50 in the world has 40% against a solid top10 team that's possibly on the hottest streak of all the teams in the world.

    Basically if Bing put up odds and Secret was -150 or something vs SGE I'd put 75% of my bankroll on them lol.

    If VG.J was +200 vs DC I'd take them medium I think.

    If VP was -120 vs VG.J I'd probably put up at least 25% of my bankroll on them, although it's not a complete lock I think -500 or so would be resonable odds.

    Think they might be on to something but needs to tweak this a bit. My guess is that they give too much credence to games where the better team basically didn't give much of a fuck. SGE would never in a million years get this much credit if it wasn't for OG playing like dumbfucks their first game since they probably didn't know that people from Brazil even knew how to play the game and SGE looking good in the qualifiers with huge ping advantage.

    No idea why they rate VP so low despite looking amazing this tournament, might be that they got DDOSed out of a qualifier a couple of months ago and dropped some games in the qualifiers when they tried out some very weird stuff against fairly good teams.

    On another note I have my best betting month ever by far. It's actually in the same ballpark as my great poker months from five or six years ago.

    Might put something on DC vs VG.J but I'll wait and watch the draft first. Think VG.J is the more known team so no real risk money comes in on DC the next few hours.
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Melby Kiper and Todd McShay both reporting they think Cleveland is gonna take Mitch Tribisky with 1st pick.

    5d has NOT Miles Garrett at #1 at +300. Had to hit that.
     
  5. Slohog

    Slohog Green Belt

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    Won a fair bit on Newbee g1 as dogs vs Liquid. Got them for my biggest ever E-sport bet g2 at evens. I think their draft is amazing.

    edit: lol that's cruel. Up 16-2 or something early game and stomping and then they throw it away. Good thing I'm having such a good month or I'd be annoyed.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2017
  6. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    I hope everyone hits that. Garrett going #1 at -600 has value ;)
     
  7. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Last two draft props (I hope)

    Joe Mixon u43.5 (-135) risk: 1.35u
    Haason Reddick u17.5 (-350) risk: 4u
     
  8. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    They pulled the line. I still think Garrett goes #1 but them pulling the line makes me think I at least have a shot at Trubisky being the pick. If Cleveland actually likes him that much and thinks he won't fall to them with their other first rd pick...maybe Kiper and McShay get it right.

    I bet it small but would like to cash that +300...
     
  9. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    I'm not even exaggerating when I say this but that would probably be the worst draft pick in NFL history
     
  10. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I agree. I hope they do it.
     
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  11. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Hedge if you can

     
  12. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Yeah saw that but lines were pulled for awhile so had no chance to hedge. Only .5u, oh well.

    I played the unders on Mixon, Allen, and Adams all to win 1u too.
     
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  13. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Angels (-120) risk: 1.2u
     
  14. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Spurs -6 2H for 1.1u
     
  15. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I suck at NFL Draft bets LOL. I need Mixon to get picked in the next 10 picks or whatever to even come close to breaking even. Cook not getting picked in the top 24 saved me from getting shutout yesterday, luckily that was +200 and I got most of my losses back on that. If I win the Mixon bet I'm about even. Hopefully some team that's not the Packers drafts this punk soon.
     
  16. gcoogan1

    gcoogan1 Yellow Belt

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    struck lucky and had Engram to go in the first round at 5/1 had just saw Rappaports tweet saying it could happen so took a punt on it
     
  17. 8oh5

    8oh5 Orange Belt

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    Wiz ML
    Boston -2
    Clippers ML

    Round robin 2u to win 10u

    You're welcome
     
  18. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Red Sox (+100) risk: 1u

    I don't have any NBA bets for today but I can conveniently close out all three of my series props on the Wizards, Celtics, and Jazz tonight so I can still have my NBA gambling fix. Gun to head (in case anyone cares), I think the best ATS play today is the Clippers +6. Utah isn't a team that can win by big margins unless everything goes perfectly. I expect the game to be pretty close throughout

    Also, I wouldn't hate a "Bulls first half, Boston full game" prop if it's over +300
     
  19. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    1.5u
    Halep 2-0 + Oscar Otte @ 3.26
     
  20. Antagonist88

    Antagonist88 Green Belt

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    +465 on 5d. I'm tempted but I think the Celtics blitz them tonight to close it out.

    I'm also extremely biased at a Celts fan, and hit them in 6 at +1000 so even more reason for me to be biased.
     
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