New Opioid Study

A little OT but, the people that tell homeless people to get off drugs are some of the most evil people on earth. Why dont you try living on the street sober? Fuck that. Just give me a $10 and get out of my face. I'll be fine and I'll leave you alone.
 
A little OT but, the people that tell homeless people to get off drugs are some of the most evil people on earth. Why dont you try living on the street sober? Fuck that. Just give me a $10 and get out of my face. I'll be fine and I'll leave you alone.
lol, that's how I see it as well. Some homeless dude wants some cheap rotgut to get through the night, who am I to judge.
 
I always found drugs helped me in those desperate times.

And you're not alone. Drugs, alcohol, etc. It's not in the slightest bit unusual for people going through some kind of turmoil to self-medicate to some degree.
 
Truptards crying about facts, fragile snowflakes as usual.
 
m_zoi180047f1.png
Right. And that adds up to a 20% difference-- a 60-40 breakdown-- in counties with above average and below average rates.

Did you expect the two maps to be identical? Because that would be a 100% difference, not a 20% difference.

Objective of study: To explore the overlap between the geographic distribution of US counties with high opioid use and the vote for the Republican candidate in the 2016 presidential election.
Title of study: Association of Chronic Opioid Use With Presidential Voting Patterns in US Counties in 2016
Title of thread: New Study: Trump country = Opioid Country
Conclusion of study:
Experts have struggled to explain both the root causes of the opioid epidemic and the results of the 2016 election. As noted by Mayhew, “in…periods of populist anger the causes of that anger are hard to explain using standard measures of economic well-being.”28

29,30 Public health policy directed at stemming the opioid epidemic must go beyond the medical model and incorporate socioenvironmental disadvantage factors and health behaviors into policy planning and implementation.30,31
Yes; they had an objective-- which was to test a certain hypothesis.

They tested it; it turned out to be true.

What about this don't you get?

Still massive number from all angles of the opioid epidemic in California, which is why you used rates to describe the issue in the most densely populated state in the country.
Word salad.

Also, California is not the most densely populated state in the country; New Jersey is.

They had one of the highest number of deaths/state in 2016.
Sure. They also have the highest population of any state. But they have the third lowest rate of opioid deaths. You can't compare states with different populations unless you look at rates. Do you really not understand that?

I live in Maine, a state that also went to Clinton, and our opioid abuse rate is through the roof.
The study simply pointed out that Trump counties were more likely to have above average opioid rates-- not that no Clinton counties did.

Again, this thread is absurd.
This thread posts a statistical analysis of valid data. I'm sorry that you feel this is absurd.

Isn't it usually liberals who talk about solving all of our problems by legalizing drugs?
And?
 
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No, @Seano California is not Trump country.

Also, @Seano at 5.2 opioid deaths per 100,00 people, California has the third LOWEST opioid death rate of any state.
https://host.madison.com/gallery/ne...n_896db162-8e2f-56bc-809e-b5c34f2a818e.html#1

@Seano should check his facts before he calls a study in a medical journal "bullshit."

But @luckyshot has never seen @Seano post a source, so @luckyshot doesn't think will be hapenning.


1. The study said that it can be difficult to measure illegal opioid use. That's true. So, if that makes this study "weak," we might as well just stop studying opioid use altogether.
2. You are not responding to my criticism-- which is that you are whining about WHY this study was done. It's a study. It was done. If it's valid, it's valid. Next.


<{anton}>
 
And you're not alone. Drugs, alcohol, etc. It's not in the slightest bit unusual for people going through some kind of turmoil to self-medicate to some degree.

It's also why I don't think this study should be ignored.

https://jamesclear.com/heroin-habits

In Vietnam 40% of soldiers tried heroin.

Of that 15% became addicted while overseas.

Of that 5% became re-addicted when they came back. So 95% kicked the habit overnight meaning most of the users were using because of their environment.

We know there is a segment of the population that is predisposed to addiction and for them this is a Healthcare issue.

But there are a lot of people using not because of a predisposition to addiction but because they are in an environment (economically and socially) that predisposes them to hard drug use.

We should be looking at every environmental factor where opiod use is spiking.
 
It's also why I don't think this study should be ignored.

https://jamesclear.com/heroin-habits

In Vietnam 40% of soldiers tried heroin.

Of that 15% became addicted while overseas.

Of that 5% became re-addicted when they came back. So 95% kicked the habit overnight meaning most of the users were using because of their environment.

We know there is a segment of the population that is predisposed to addiction and for them this is a Healthcare issue.

But there are a lot of people using not because of a predisposition to addiction but because they are in an environment (economically and socially) that predisposes them to hard drug use.

We should be looking at every environmental factor where opiod use is spiking.

I agree.

There are significant overlaps between the reasons that those parts of the country voted for non-traditional candidate who would alter the system and the reason those environments has become predisposed to hard drug use. To me, it's simply another sign that this part of the country needs significant help and has been crying out for that help for quite some time.
 
There were no studies about any of the others because none of the others won. You posted a link about the growth of the opioid crisis during Obama's time in office. Mitt Romney and John McCain were both still alive at time, no one wrote a piece on what they did/didn't do to address the problem....because they didn't win the election so it doesn't matter. It's a 2 decade old problem. You want studies related to everyone as if their relevance is on the same level as that of the POTUS?
But Obama did win, right? He was elected and reelected, right? But because a Republican didn't win so it doesn't matter? Is that what you're saying? And RIP Romney and Mccain. Murder-suicide?


That's what your criticism lacks validity. Your primary complaint seems to be that the study combines an unpleasant scenario and a mention of their voting patterns. You allege "context" but the opioid crisis wasn't a political issue in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012. It was a political issue in 2016 and so the voting patterns are being paid attention to in 2016.
No, my primary criticism is that a weak study is trying to explain Trump's election by trying to exploit a national tragedy.
My secondary criticism is that this type of propaganda is what will lead to a second term for Trump because we don't evaluate problems based on root causes, we take short cuts, demagogue, and assign blame.

And it was a known issue since long before 2012. Do you think people weren't aware of the opioid crisis before it was coined a crisis? Or before it was discussed on the stump. I posted a great blog that highlights the failures of the Obama administration during the crisis.

The other failure of your criticism is that you're not criticizing the study for what it says, your criticism is that other people didn't do similar studies for other elections also. But there was only 1 Presidential election after this crisis became a mainstream issue - the 2016 election. However, there are plenty of stories about what was being done prior to the 2016 election and how elected officials, including the POTUS of the time, Obama, weren't doing enough.
This is completely false. I've done nothing but criticize the study; for what it says AND what it doesn't say. Thats how you interpret and grade studies. You don't just deep throat their conclusions and consider them infallible. This study even admits to its limitations and shortcomings.
What is the point of there only being 1 election since this became "mainstream"? The problem has existed for 20 years and it has been known about for more than a decade.

You don't have any consistency here. Do you have a problem with stories blaming Obama's treatment of the issue from pre-2016? Were those stories about an "agenda"? Do you have a problem with this being a political issue going back several years? Or do you only have a problem with this specific study?

I am consistent. You are not. You are talking about stories, I'm talking about a study in a prestigious journal.
You're talking about blaming Obama, I'm talking about context. This study is obviously cherry picking data to meet an objective that has no scientific value. I have a problem with this particular study. Its politicizing an epidemic with a poorly constructed study and it obviously has an agenda.

To summarize, the opioid crisis became a mainstream political issue during Obama's term in office. Stories were written about this growing section of the population. The population group was being studied and analyzed from multiple angles. All of this fine...until they also study the voting patterns of these people. And then, only then, does it become an "agenda".
Weak summary. You can hardly call 1 election for 1 particular candidate from people suffering through an epidemic for 20 years a pattern.

I'm sorry but that is not a valid critique of anything if you're going to ignore the years of political attention to this issue to only find a fault with it in 2018.

What lacks validity is your retort. Your entire argument is based on the assumption that I am a Trump supporter or a but-but Obama guy.
You can't have meaningful discussions about issues that go back decades in a bubble around 1 person and 1 date.
 
Right. And that adds up to a 20% difference-- a 60-40 breakdown-- in counties with above average and below average rates.

Did you expect the two maps to be identical? Because that would be a 100% difference, not a 20% difference.
If they were identical the difference would be zero.


Yes; they had an objective-- which was to test a certain hypothesis.

They tested it; it turned out to be true.

What about this don't you get?
It didn't turn out to be true because it was biased and poorly constructed. Its a poor study. You can't draw conclusions from a poor study.
this would have been fine for some statistics course, but you can't draw conclusions from it.

And lets stop pretending your hyperbolic thread title was about science.
 
But Obama did win, right? He was elected and reelected, right? But because a Republican didn't win so it doesn't matter? Is that what you're saying? And RIP Romney and Mccain. Murder-suicide?



No, my primary criticism is that a weak study is trying to explain Trump's election by trying to exploit a national tragedy.
My secondary criticism is that this type of propaganda is what will lead to a second term for Trump because we don't evaluate problems based on root causes, we take short cuts, demagogue, and assign blame.

And it was a known issue since long before 2012. Do you think people weren't aware of the opioid crisis before it was coined a crisis? Or before it was discussed on the stump. I posted a great blog that highlights the failures of the Obama administration during the crisis.


This is completely false. I've done nothing but criticize the study; for what it says AND what it doesn't say. Thats how you interpret and grade studies. You don't just deep throat their conclusions and consider them infallible. This study even admits to its limitations and shortcomings.
What is the point of there only being 1 election since this became "mainstream"? The problem has existed for 20 years and it has been known about for more than a decade.



I am consistent. You are not. You are talking about stories, I'm talking about a study in a prestigious journal.
You're talking about blaming Obama, I'm talking about context. This study is obviously cherry picking data to meet an objective that has no scientific value. I have a problem with this particular study. Its politicizing an epidemic with a poorly constructed study and it obviously has an agenda.


Weak summary. You can hardly call 1 election for 1 particular candidate from people suffering through an epidemic for 20 years a pattern.



What lacks validity is your retort. Your entire argument is based on the assumption that I am a Trump supporter or a but-but Obama guy.
You can't have meaningful discussions about issues that go back decades in a bubble around 1 person and 1 date.
You're off your rocker here.

You say they study "cherry picked" data-- how can data from every county in the entire country be "cherry picked"?

Everything you are saying, once again, boils down to "They shouldn't have done this study!"

OK-- maybe, maybe not.

But they did they study; it's valid. It shows a correlation.

Sorry if you don't like it.

If they were identical the difference would be zero.
If they were identical there would be no difference between the pictures-- that would be a 100% correlation.

It didn't turn out to be true because it was biased and poorly constructed.
They looked at every country in the country using the same measurements-- that's not biased.

You can't draw conclusions from a poor study.
this would have been fine for some statistics course, but you can't draw conclusions from it.
What is the difference between a statistic that is "good for a statistics course" and one that "you can draw conclusions from"?

And lets stop pretending your hyperbolic thread title was about science.
You don't like my thread title, fine.
 
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Your elected War Room President ladies and gentlemen...
I thought you were the president, what happened?
Did you get impeached just because of your lazy eye? That’s not right, man
 
You're off your rocker here.

You say they study "cherry picked" data-- how can data from every county in the entire country be "cherry picked"?
They cherry picked data from 1 year of a 20 year epidemic.

Everything you are saying, once again, boils down to "They shouldn't have done this study!"
No. Everything I'm saying is they should have done a better study and that this piece of garbage shouldn't have been published in JAMA.

But they did they study; it's valid. It shows a correlation.

Sorry if you don't like it.

Its a poor study with inconclusive data that showed a weak, at best correlation. Its tantamount to fake news.
If they were identical there would be no difference between the pictures-- that would be a 100% correlation.
which is not what you said. Not sure if your correcting yourself, or what.


They looked at every country in the country using the same measurements-- that's not biased.
It is biased. The very objective of the study is biased: to associate the epidemic with Trump being elected.



What is the difference between a statistic that is "good for a statistics course" and one that "you can draw conclusions from"?
there are 100 sheep in Montana.
there are 100 rocks in Montana.
based on this data there is a correlation between sheep and rocks.


You don't like my thread title, fine.

I don't like making everything a partisan issue.
 
So now that weve needlessly identified counties which have opioids and pinned it on one person, what do we do next?
 
So now that weve needlessly identified counties which have opioids and pinned it on one person, what do we do next?
Cut taxes on corporations, obviously.
 
I'm only carrying this on because I like you:
They cherry picked data from 1 year of a 20 year epidemic.
By this logic, any study that looks at one year of anything is "cherry picked" and biased.

It looked at current data.

Its a poor study with inconclusive data that showed a weak, at best correlation. Its tantamount to fake news.
It's didn't show a weak correlation; it showed a 20 point correlation.

Not huge, but not nothing. I admit that a 70-30 correlation would be a much bigger deal.

It is biased. The very objective of the study is biased: to associate the epidemic with Trump being elected.
It tested a hypothesis.

That is literally what all experiments and studies do.

I could ask: "Is there any correlation between being under 5' 6" and being a millionaire?" Just because I am asking this question-- and not some other hypothetical question-- doesn't mean that I am being biased for (or against) people under 5'6" (or millionaires).

there are 100 sheep in Montana.
there are 100 rocks in Montana.
based on this data there is a correlation between sheep and rocks.
Good, now we are getting somewhere.

If I consistently found that places with slightly more rocks had slightly more sheep... guess what?

Bingo! I've found a correlation between rocks and sheep!

Notice, this doesn't mean that rocks cause sheep. Correlation in not causation.








... but it is correlation.
 
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So trump benefits from druggies being so stoned that they vote for trump?....makes sense.
 
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