NBA 2014-15 Discussion V21, Jizzlies Edition: From Bad to Worst

[jcc3508]

2014-2015 has been a successful regular season for the Jizzlies in terms of regular season wins. We all know how that translates into the playoffs: ZERO RINGS.

If there is one team that that thrives in accomplishing NOTHING from a basketball standpoint, then Memphis never ceases to disappoint.

Of the 30 current NBA franchises, 13 have never won the NBA championship. *Check
Only seven (7) franchises have never been to the NBA Finals. *Check
There are only five (5) franchises that have four or less 50-win seasons. *Check

The Jizzlies have shown that Consistency is very possible in the dynamic and fast-paced sport of basketball. Consistency at sucking

Some white knight freedom fighters out there are claiming that what matters the most is the RIGHT HERE and RIGHT NOW. Well RIGHT NOW the Jizzlies are a shit-tier UFC-level franchise that is not getting to the Finals in decades to come.

Let's take a look at their current overrated roster, their "Big 3":

An oversized, underachiever that amounts to nothing but being a relative, a shadow of a multiple time NBA Champion. Whatever new found skills this lifetime loser may have in the future will all be in vain for the Jizzlies as he will undoubtedly jump at any opportunity to leave this canshise after this season is over. It is the best chance he has at retiring with a ring.

Is it his fault that he hasn't achieved success? I would have to say yes because it is his fault that he chooses to be part of the the worst franchise.

Sometimes I watch the Jizzlies and wonder why they would let Vietnam veterans play in the NBA. I always thought it was very nice thing of them to do.

Who the hell is this guy and what has he accomplished??? Doesn't surprise me that he has wasted all of his career in one of the worst organizations in all of sports history.

It is more than safe to say that Memphis is just a passer by, an entertainment for the local fan and a completely lost case in what matters the most: Championships.

Without pointing out names, there are some people out there (the "Jizzers") who have their heart and soul committed to winning regular season games. This is the thing that matters the most to Jizzers and they completely fail to see what the point of basketball is.

These Jizzers are diehard supporters of "basketball analytics". You constantly hear them mumble how great a 4-man rotation is, how important the +/- certain combination of players have, how big of an impact the PER has in the game and how Hollinger should be in the NBA Hall of Fame.

The problem is that the Jizzers spend endless hours looking at spreadsheets trying to figure out why these analytics haven't propelled the Grizzlies to an NBA championship yet. It is the most sad and pathetic loser mentally.

Don't be a Jizzer. Be a Winner.

 

[faustian]

Since this got buried under Maury McJizzlies' rustlemania last thread I'll repost it here:

Not buying the 'he lead them' narrative. Detroit was lead by ridiculously good defense, especially on the interior.

I have no idea how Chauncey's PER is that high either. He doesn't rebound, he only had above average assists (for a PG) a couple of times. His shooting % is meh. He did shoot 3's ok, but not at huge volume and he shot FTs really well. His steals and blocks are nothing to get excited about either.

His 05-06 season (his by far best), 18.5 ppg on 42%, 8.6 assts, 3.1 rebounds and .9 stls. Sometimes I'm baffled by how the advanced metrics can fluctuate based on FT% and 3pt%.

Billups career playoff Offensive Win Shares: 15.02 (12th all-time)

Billups career playoff Win Shares: 20.60 (18th all-time)

Billups career playoff WS/48: .1858 (19th all-time)

Billups career playoff Offensive Rating: 117.54 (19th all-time)

I didn't cite these numbers the other day, because tbh I didn't know they existed like this. I happened to be looking up Reggie Miller's all-time career playoff rankings earlier and I couldn't help but notice Billups' name repeatedly showing up in the top 20. So in this case the advanced science backs up what I already believed based on my eye test: Billups is very underrated and was one of the best PGs of all-time.

btw Reggie Miller is severely underrated as well


EDIT:

Reggie Miller career playoff Offensive Win Shares: 16.8 (10th all-time)

Reggie Miller career playoff Win Shares: 19.90 (20th all-time)

Reggie Miller career playoff WS/48: .1799 (23rd all-time)

Reggie Miller career playoff Offensive Rating: 119.22 (7th all-time)

 

[HunterSdVa29]

Miller having 16 offensive playoff win shares is tremendous. Having only 3 defensive win shares, not so much haha

 

[420SherCat]

Jizz had their chance last year. Than jack Randolph got his ass suspended in a crucial game 7. That was their best chance to reach the finals.

 

[HunterSdVa29]

Also, if the lakes suck so bad and we shouldn't care about them, why do they currently average 1500 more fans per home game than the griz (@ a higher occupancy too, so arena size is no excuse), despite only 19 wins?????

They May not have wins, but that revenue is coming in. Don't forget the Lakes have the highest broadcasting deal in the league as well...

 

[Partlow]

Solid OP, needs more analshitics but not bad.

 

[420SherCat]

Also, if the lakes suck so bad and we shouldn't care about them, why do they currently average 1500 more fans per home game than the griz (@ a higher occupancy too, so arena size is no excuse), despite only 19 wins?????

They May not have wins, but that revenue is coming in. Don't forget the Lakes have the highest broadcasting deal in the league as well...

Those faker fans go to the games to be seen not to see the game. Lol you really think those are fans at those faker games. The true LA fans went to bandwagon on the clipps.

 

[faustian]

Miller having 16 offensive playoff win shares is tremendous. Having only 3 defensive win shares, not so much haha

Miller was one of my favorite players growing up but I always felt he was never given his proper due. He was only selected to 5 all-star games and 3 All-NBA teams (3rd teams) ffs. That's criminal imo. However with the rise of advanced science, people are now better able to quantify just how valuable Miller was on the court. Miller never racked up assists, but few players were responsible for getting his teammates so many easy baskets. Miller wasn't seen as a dominant iso scorer but his offensive game was as portable and reliable as anyone's. RealGM does a top 100 project every year and this post about Miller just blew me away, it articulates exactly why I always felt he was such an important offensive player:

Spoiler

My guess is the guy I'm higher on than the norm is Reggie Miller, and I would vote for him here. I don't expect people to vote for him yet -- he's in the same tier as Kidd for me -- but I imagine he'll have very few champions so I'll explain why I have Miller so high.

First, a reminder: GOAT rankings and Peak aren't the same. That divide is never more present than when talking about longevity guys like Miller. I have him my top 30 all-time but my top 50 peaks. Stockton is just like this. Kidd too. Havlicek as well. So without doing a year-by-year, first let me say I'd have voted for Reggie for 13 or 14 all-star games. His longevity, from 89-02 is part of the reason why he's one of the all-time leaders in Win Shares and scored over 25k points. Of the 18 players with 25k+ career, Miller stands as an outlier in efficiency:
http://www.basketball-reference.com...&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ts_pct

The RAPM data we have on Miller is elite as well. Using Doc's scaled RAPM, Miller is +8.3 in 1998 (13th), +5.1 in 1999 (26th) and +5.8 in 2000 (17th). (Note: there are low-minute players in there as well.)

So for a long time, what does Miller give you? At a high-level

-excellent volume scoring
-great spacing
-moderate creation using the screen
-underrated defense at the shooting guard
-uber portable scoring because he's a GOAT-level shooter AND scores mostly on catch-and-shoot action so he doesn't vacuum possessions

1. Volume Scoring

Spoiler

As with Nash, I can't isolate volume scoring. It's part of a player's Global Offense package. I'm focusing on it with Miller because I don't think people realize how well he volume scored. He is basically the GOAT player at raising his game against in the PS when the situation calls for: one study I ran years back looked at a player's expected postseason performance versus their actual one based on defensive quality. Miller, if he maintained his RS play from 1990 to 2001 should have had a PS stat line of 18.8 ppg, 59.3% TS 117 ORTg. Instead it was 23.5 ppg, 60.6% TS and 122 ORtg. (!) If his scoring is normalized in the PS, we see:

Normalized PS Prime PPG TS% Ortg
Michael Jordan 33.4 .565 118
Kobe Bryant 28.9 .558 113
LeBron James 28.6 .562 114
Hakeem Olajuwon 27.3 .570 113
Shaquille O

 

[faustian]

...

Spoiler

2. Spacing

Spoiler

I don't need to discuss this much since it's been established quite a bit in the project. Just note that Miller is a GOAT-level shooter.

3. Creation

Spoiler

This is where Miller has always been really underrated because he didn't rack up assists. People assumed he was one-dimensional (I did!) but this article sums up well how much this kind of screening action can create opportunities. http://grantland.com/features/kyle-korv ... nta-hawks/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Furthermore, when I tracked games these Miller types like Ray Allen and JJ Redick had WAY more creation than you would expect running off of screens because of how much "gravity" that creates (draws defenders to). Again, the player with the ball can make the pass to another player for an easier shot based on Miller's cuts, or Miller can receive and move the ball along.

4. Underrated Defense

Spoiler

This one I'll leave for someone else because I can't find a good compilation of my data right now. Go look at SG performance vs. Indiana and then say, Chicago with Jordan. You'll be scratching your head at why guys didn't play better against scrawny Reggie Miller. I'd argue it's because Miller was a long, hustling 6-7 who was a total pain in the ass and liked to get in your head. Much like with creation, i don't consider Miller an elite defender. It's just that I think his defense is actually pretty good -- definitely better than replacement level.

5. Portability

Spoiler

Perhaps Miller's calling card.

I noticed over the years that every time someone asked me to build a s super team, I'd always include someone like Miller or Allen on the bench for their incredible shooting and spacing, and because they are so compatible with basically every other kind of offensive player. Miller even more so.

As he showed in certain seasons in Indiana, Miller could still ramp up his volume at incredible efficiency -- NOTE: Miller was excellent as drawing fouls, one of the areas he separates himself from someone like Ray Allen -- even without the support of good offense around him. That's simply the power of his offensive style. But when other players start filling up dimensions like "creation," "isolation scoring" and "post scoring," Miller still shines. Heck, Miller shines when you replace a Miller-type (!) because Miler would still be an improvement.

A few years ago I ran a study on shooters in good lineups. Basically all of the top shelf lineups had elite shooters. The short explanation for this is that the power of 5 players to be a threat anywhere is significantly more important than one guy helping himself (true iso-scorer) or a creator needing slashers or playing a 2-man game without shooters.

I also don't think much of Olympic play, other than to see certain fits. The 1994 USA team was a Dream Team and so was 1996. In 94, Miller was second to Shaq in scoring at 17 ppg on 84% TS (best on the team by 14%). In 96 he was second again closer to 12 per game on 67% TS (3rd on team). In both situations, he led the Dream Teams in minutes by a landslide. Why? Maybe because there's no stopping Reggie Miller from doing his thing. It just fits in like, every scenario.

In conclusion, you have a guy with incredible longevity churning out all-nba quality seasons year after year. He's one of the most misunderstood players of all-time -- I was arguing in the 90's for Miller's spacing and screening effects after a while because of how he torched Celtics. Then you start watching him come off the screen and yell "don't leave him open" and someone else gets open because of damn Reggie Miller. Then he's drawing fouls out of thin air. Then he's scoring 25 points a night on GOAT-level efficiency. Knicks fans can probably relate.

All told, I'd give Miller something like 13 all-star seasons and a number of all-nba seasons, but because his regular seasons stats were closer to 20 points per game with 3 assists (and no one really knew about TS%) and he toiled in Indiana without another star, he made a mere 3 all-nba teams and 5 (would be 6 with 1999) AS games.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1346017&p=41136075#p41137335

 

[Corona]

Solid op.

 

[Palpatine]

...

22. Patrick Ewing
23. Dwyane Wade

 

[faustian]

Ewing over Wad is most preposterous. Yeah Ewing has a big edge in longevity, but prime Wad is arguably a top 10 player ever

Here's something I noticed when looking at Wad's stats:

- Only 5 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2009

- Only 12 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2007

- Only 18 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2010

- Only 22 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2006

- Only 33 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2012

- Only 41 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2011

 

[Revolver]

Ewing over Wad is most preposterous. Yeah Ewing has a big edge in longevity, but prime Wad is arguably a top 10 player ever

Here's something I noticed when looking at Wad's stats:

- Only 5 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2009

- Only 12 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2007

- Only 18 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2010

- Only 22 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2006

- Only 33 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2012

- Only 41 players in NBA history have ever had a higher season PER than Dwyane Wade in 2011

Are you really arguing that Wade is a top 10 player? He'd be the only one who has never won an mvp award then.

 

[The One True]

22. Patrick Ewing
23. Dwyane Wade

 

[Partlow]

Ersan outscored the Pacers in the 1st quarter 17-15 LMAO

 

[HunterSdVa29]

Those faker fans go to the games to be seen not to see the game. Lol you really think those are fans at those faker games. The true LA fans went to bandwagon on the clipps.

Nice try. if that were the case, since LA is so populated then the clips should be near the tops of attendance, when in fact they're literally one spot ahead of the lakers.....so yes some 'fans' changed teams, but enough still support the team

even the cheap nosebleed seats are like 60+ dollars, not exactly cheap for people that aren't fans. it's not like you can be 'seen' anyway unless you're in the front rows. in the top ten teams in attendance currently, all of them are good except the lakers and knicks. those are generally 2 of the 3 biggest hotbeds of bball culture, players, fans, history, etc.... (with chicago, #1 in attendance)

the Cavs suddenly becoming #2 in attendance is a much more telling, and egregious stat.....

 

[Palpatine]

Consider that they went right up against each other for the number 22 slot. Not like Kareem vs Bird for example, because Bird was not in the discussion for number 2.

It means that a strong case was being made for both Hughing and Wad as the 22nd best player, and Hughing clearly came out on top among most experts.

Huge blow to Faust's self-esteem.

 

[highkicknomore]

Consider that they went right up against each other for the number 22 slot. Not like Kareem vs Bird for example, because Bird was not in the discussion for number 2.

It means that a strong case was being made for both Hughing and Wad as the 22nd best player, and Hughing clearly came out on top among most experts.

Huge blow to Faust's self-esteem.

Wad has more rings doe.

 

[Corona]

Nice try. if that were the case, since LA is so populated then the clips should be near the tops of attendance, when in fact they're literally one spot ahead of the lakers.....so yes some 'fans' changed teams, but enough still support the team

even the cheap nosebleed seats are like 60+ dollars, not exactly cheap for people that aren't fans. it's not like you can be 'seen' anyway unless you're in the front rows. in the top ten teams in attendance currently, all of them are good except the lakers and knicks. those are generally 2 of the 3 biggest hotbeds of bball culture, players, fans, history, etc.... (with chicago, #1 in attendance)

the Cavs suddenly becoming #2 in attendance is a much more telling, and egregious stat.....

Laker games are like $100 minimum on stubhub for seats in the rafters against teams like the timbwolves on week nights.

 

[The One True]

the experts objectively concluded that pat yu ing is simply superior everywhere. slight (slight) edge to GH in the 3ball but outside of that it's a wash. peak for peak give me '90 yu ing any day