International USMCA: Congress Ratified New & Improved Trade Deal To Replace NAFTA

[11_others]

Artificially trying to lower the trade deficit by messing up with the market, amazing how Trump turned America into socialists.

And people were afraid of Bernie.

Look at you grasping. Sad.
It's called mixed economy for a reason, champ. Adam Smith theories take into account overall benefit, not applicable for world trade, since U.S. has to look out for it's own interests.

 

[Arkain2K]

Mexico’s President Cancels U.S. Visit as Trump Feud Deepens
by Nacha Cattan
Thu Jan 26, 2017

​

Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto canceled a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump planned for next week as a dispute over Trump’s border wall plan exploded into a showdown that threatens one of the world’s biggest bilateral trading relationships.

Pena Nieto scuttled the face-to-face talk with Trump in a Twitter message after the U.S. leader blasted him in a tweet Thursday morning for saying Mexico would refuse to pay for a barrier on the U.S. southern border. “If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting,” Trump wrote.

Pena Nieto responded in his tweet: “This morning we’ve informed the White House that I won’t attend the working meeting scheduled for next Tuesday with @Potus.”

The conflict over the border wall and trade adds to tensions in the U.S.-Mexico relationship and becomes the first major foreign policy for Trump since he took office on Jan. 20. The outcome has domestic political implications and economic consequences for both countries.

Announcement of the canceled meeting sparked a drop in the Mexican peso, which fell 1.1 percent to trade at 21.29 per U.S. dollar following the announcement. Mexico’s currency has plunged almost 14 percent since Trump’s election on concern that Trump will renegotiate or scrap the North American Free Trade Agreement. Peso-denominated government bonds have also taken a hit since the U.S. election, with the yield on benchmark bonds due in 2024 rising 1.43 percentage points to 7.53 percent as the peso’s weakness led the central bank to hike interest rates.

Still Talking

Trump’s spokesman, Sean Spicer, indicated the administration still wanted Pena Nieto to come to the U.S. “We’ll look for a date to schedule something in the future,” he told reporters. “We’ll continue to coordinate.”

In a second tweet, Pena Nieto also said the door wasn’t closed to a meeting: "Mexico reiterates its willingness to work with the U.S. to achieve accords in favor of both nations."

Pena Nieto had been under domestic pressure to stand up to Trump, and that only intensified after Trump on Wednesday signed a directive to set in motion the process of building a wall. In a televised address on Wednesday evening, Pena Nieto reiterated that Mexico won’t pay for a border wall and said Mexico demanded respect as an autonomous nation even as it negotiates new trade rules with the U.S.

Opposition Pressure

“Hostile actions in Washington, such as the announcement of the construction of the wall, from our point of view, means that the U.S. doesn’t want any collaboration from our side,” Senator Armando Rios Piter of the Democratic Revolution Party said in a statement Wednesday.

Trump won office by making two central promises of his campaign the construction of a wall along the 1,989-mile border at Mexico’s expense to halt illegal immigration and halting the shift of manufacturing jobs. He said in an interview on ABC Wednesday that construction could begin in a matter of months, though it would initially be funded by U.S. taxpayers.

But he may have to wrestle with members of his own party in Congress. Republican leaders have discussed spending $12 billion to $15 billion, but it’s unclear whether that would pay for the wall Trump envisions. Republicans lawmakers also are debating Trump’s plan for massive spending on infrastructure, expanding the military and cutting taxes while juggling their own pledges to address the national debt.

Trade Dispute

Also at issue is the Nafta accord among the U.S., Mexico and Canada. The U.S. and Mexico traded $531 billion in goods and services in 2015, almost five times the trade between the U.S. and U.K. Mexico is the third-largest trading partner with the U.S., following China and Canada, and it sends close to 80 percent of its goods to its northern neighbor.

But Trump has blamed the pact, which entered into force in 1994, for the loss of U.S. jobs. He’s vowed to renegotiate the agreement while also pressuring U.S. companies, including automakers General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co., to scale back plans for building plants in Mexico.

“It has been a one-sided deal from the beginning of Nafta with massive numbers of jobs and companies lost,” Trump said in two tweets Thursday.

Mexico’s Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray and Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo have been in Washington since Tuesday meeting with Trump administration officials to discuss reopening negotiations on the agreement.

Given just how much Mexico has benefited from the pact -- its annual trade surplus with the U.S. has soared to over $60 billion -- there’s a sense that Videgaray has little leverage in the talks, that he will be mostly ceding ground to his American counterparts.

Mexican officials have been tight-lipped in their negotiating

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...ident-cancels-u-s-visit-as-trump-feud-deepens

 

[Arkain2K]

Nafta Showdown: Mexico Has a Wild Card to Play
by Eric Martin and Nacha Cattan
January 26, 2017

Luis Videgaray is in a seemingly unenviable position.

The Mexican foreign minister arrived Tuesday evening in Washington with the task of renegotiating Nafta with a Trump administration that has staked much of its reputation on a pledge to reshape the trade deal and shift jobs back to the U.S. from Mexico. Given just how much Mexico has benefited from the 1994 pact -- its annual trade surplus with the U.S. has soared to over $60 billion -- there’s the general sense that Videgaray has little leverage in the talks, that he will be mostly ceding ground to his American counterparts.

But Videgaray can be a formidable dealmaker. A 48-year-old MIT-trained economist, he’s long been considered in Mexico to be the master strategist behind President Enrique Pena Nieto’s rise to power. He’s also forged strong relationships with both Trump, who has referred to him as a “wonderful man,” and Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner. What’s more, he may have a card to play in talks that’s been overlooked: security.

If Mexico were to, say, end cooperation with the U.S. on anti-drug trafficking or counter-terrorism efforts, it could hamstring an administration that’s made border security another of its top priorities, having even chosen to unveil its plan to build a new wall just as the Mexican contingent was getting to work in Washington. Videgaray hinted at his strategy Monday, telling the Televisa TV network that “this can’t be a negotiation where we only discuss trade."

“There are many areas in which the U.S. needs the cooperation of Mexico, such as security and immigration," he said.

Comeback Kid

That Videgaray has even made it to this point underscores the kind of shrewd operator he is. Back in August, during the height of the bitter U.S. campaign, he invited Trump to Mexico City to meet with Pena Nieto. In many parts of Mexico, this was wildly unpopular. After all, Trump had used disparaging comments about Mexican immigrants to help launch his candidacy. Pena Nieto’s administration came under such criticism that Videgaray was forced to resign from the cabinet position he held at the time, finance minister.

But when Trump pulled off the election-day shocker two months later, Videgaray was suddenly summoned back to the presidential palace and appointed foreign minister so he could oversee the Nafta renegotiation talks.

He met with National Security Adviser Michael Flynn on the first day of his two-day trip and is scheduled to meet with Kushner on Thursday, according to a White House aide who asked not to be identified. Mexico’s Foreign Ministry has said it also expects U.S. trade adviser Peter Navarro and Trump’s chief of staff, Reince Priebus, to be involved in the talks. Videgaray has been accompanied by Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo.

Summit Cancelled

The meetings were to be a prelude to a summit planned for next between between the two presidents. Pena Nieto scuttled the face-to-face talk with Trump in a Twitter message after the U.S. leader blasted him in a tweet Thursday morning for saying Mexico would refuse to pay for a barrier on the U.S. southern border. “If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting,” Trump wrote.

Pena Nieto responded in his tweet: “This morning we’ve informed the White House that I won’t attend the working meeting scheduled for next Tuesday with @Potus.”

While Trump’s announcement of the border-wall plan Wednesday rankled many in Mexico and triggered calls for Pena Nieto himself to cancel his trip, the hope among his supporters is that visiting Trump within days of his inauguration will lead to a quick understanding of the general guidelines for revising Nafta. That, in turn, could help stabilize the Mexican peso, which has sunk repeatedly to new record lows amid concern the accord could undergo major revisions. Canada, the third partner in Nafta, is sitting out the talks for now.

"Trump is a negotiator, so he’s setting the bar high," said Alejandro Schtulmann, president of Mexico City-based political-risk advisory firm Empra. "Videgaray is skillful, but it remains to be seen what he can offer."

Internet, Energy

Beyond Videgaray’s security comments Monday, Mexican officials have been tight-lipped in their negotiating plans, and they remained so after the first day of meetings in Washington. In the past, they’ve signaled that they’re prepared to broaden the accord to include industries like internet commerce and energy.

Trump has been more direct about his goal. He’s spoken repeatedly about manufacturing, saying that investments in Mexico by U.S. companies seeking lower labor costs have deprived cities like Detroit and Cleveland of thousands of jobs. Trump used Twitter to threaten a 35 percent tax on General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp’s imports and cut a deal with Carrier Corp. to keep the company from moving some jobs south of the border. (His White House aide would only say that this week’s talks would focus primarily on trade but could also touch on the wall.)

Trump may demand changes that effectively boost the share of auto manufacturing in the U.S., either through tariffs or regulations that require more of the inputs for vehicles to come from North America. Pena Nieto and Videgaray have been adamant that North America should remain free of tariffs, and Trump’s plans could endanger an auto industry that has taken off in Mexico in recent years.

Videgaray’s challenge is to preserve the benefits Mexico gets from Nafta while also satisfying Trump’s desire to rebalance the relationship, Schtulmann said. If successful, it may just be enough to further propel his political comeback, perhaps leading to a gubernatorial or even presidential run one day, said Duncan Wood, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.

"He’s somebody who doesn’t back down,” Wood said. “He has extraordinary intellect that should not be discounted."

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...-mexico-has-one-wild-card-to-play-against-u-s

 

[Gandhi]

Well good to know Canada may not get swept up by the protectionist tide. One meet with Trudeau and it may be over however, Trump will take one look at that real head of hair and hear one SJW line of canuck talk and the border will be up. At least he needs our oil.....

 

[Rod1]

Look at you grasping. Sad.
It's called mixed economy for a reason, champ. Adam Smith theories take into account overall benefit, not applicable for world trade, since U.S. has to look out for it's own interests.

But its an overall benefit, not just by those whose jobs get outsourced but the nation as a whole gets richer.

 

[Islam Imamate]

Fixed.

 

[SammyPops]

Exactly, we're the bull in a China shop.

Real question is, will YOU be disappointed when we get what we want without a concession, given how cucks and libs are always looking to see this country fail, inside and out.

you are clueless. Schwartzman was in Calgary last week and said among other things: Canada/US trade relations is a model relationship. Trump has already asked for more of our oil.

You are correct that the US is a bull in a China shop but the US can only have so many trade wars.

 

[Arkain2K]

Not a damn thing- we're trying to balance the trade imabalance.
Well, we can send our cucks their way and Hollywood celebrities. Or capture and extradite George Soros for prosecution on his insider trading(north America benefits as a whole).

Exactly, we're the bull in a China shop.

Real question is, will YOU be disappointed when we get what we want without a concession, given how cucks and libs are always looking to see this country fail, inside and out.

You strike me as the type who barges into threads without having the most elementary knowledge required for an intelligent discussion, and thus had to spew some generic jingos to make it seems like you actually have something of value to contribute.

In this case, you finds yourself in the middle of the NAFTA discussion without having the faintest clue as to which market/products are likely to be on the negotiation table for each side, and thus your sophisticated business analysis is narrowed to "we'll just get everything we want, #cuck #liberals #soros #MAGA!" #Winning! #Yugehands!"

Would that be a fair and accurate assessment of the expansive limit of your valuable contribution to this discussion?

 

[Arkain2K]

Looking out for Numero Uno: With NAFTA in play, it’s every Amigo for itself
Joe Chidley | January 26, 2017

Stephen Schwarzman blew into Calgary on Monday like a warmth-bearing Chinook. The senior adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, who is also CEO of the mega-private equity firm Blackstone Group, spoke to reporters after addressing Justin Trudeau’s gathered cabinet on Monday, and his was a message of peace.

Our prime minister, Schwarzman said, shouldn’t “be enormously worried” over the new U.S. administration’s plans to reopen or trash the North American Free Trade Agreement. “Canada is held in very high regard,” he went on; it has “special status,” and the Canada-U.S. relationship is “a model for the way trade relations should be.”

Meanwhile, David MacNaughton, our ambassador in Washington, said that Canada’s focus is on avoiding becoming “collateral damage” in any trade conflict between America and Mexico (and/or China.)

All this suggests that the Americans’ target in NAFTA renegotiations is, simply, Mexico, while Canada hopes to place itself firmly on the sidelines.

So much for the Three Amigos. It’s every country for itself.

Now, lest one think there is something disloyal about pre-emptively throwing our Mexican friends to the ravages of the over-combed eagle, the context is helpful.

The salient fact is this: the United States was, is and forever shall be numero uno for Canada, with or without NAFTA. Our total trade with the U.S. in 2015 was more than $760 billion — at least three-and-a-half times the combined trade with Canada’s next four largest partners (including the European Union, at No. 2). Total merchandise trade with Mexico that year was $26.3 billion, or about 3.5 per cent of the U.S. level.

As an export market, Mexico looks even smaller (under $8 billion in 2015). We export more to more distant lands — China, the U.K and Japan. And we send nearly 50 times more stuff (in dollar terms) to the U.S. than we do to Mexico.

It’s clear, then, that sacrificing our relationship with the States to defend Mexico’s place in NAFTA would be foolhardy, at best — suicidal, at worst.

Of course, it might not come to that: we don’t know, after all, what the end game of the Americans’ NAFTA insurgency is. But let’s say that it did come to that, and Canada, in the interests of self-preservation, lets its free trade relationship with Mexico diminish or even disappear. Would we miss it much?

Well, there would certainly be costs. (They would be even higher for the States, but that’s another story altogether.)

For one thing, while still relatively small, Canada’s trade with Mexico has ballooned under NAFTA. It’s risen by 10 per cent annually since 1993, and in some sectors it’s grown even more quickly. For instance, Mexico has become a big market for Canadian agricultural products, and the third-largest destination for Canadian oilseeds (think: canola), after China and Japan; Canada, meanwhile, has become a significant export market for Mexican food product.

Mexico is also the No. 3 or No. 4 destination for Canadian manufacturing exports (neck-and-neck with Japan), especially in the automotive sector. Canadian auto parts makers like Magna, Linamar and Martinrea have significant factory operations in Mexico, as does Bombardier, which has a plant in Hidalgo that supplies trains to clients around the world, including the United States. Clearly, if Trump’s Mexico-pointed protectionism disrupts North American supply chains, there would be damage to those companies, as well as to their U.S. and global counterparts — how much, it’s hard to say, without knowing exactly what the new White House administration has planned.

Yet there’s a more general, and maybe moral, side to what Canada (and the U.S.) would give up in the NAFTA ex-Mexico scenario: potential.

Mexico is the second-largest economy in Latin America, and its GDP is poised to overtake Canada’s in the years to come. Under NAFTA, it has gone a long way to cleaning up its regulatory processes and opening its markets. Its population is young and getting better educated — Mexico has the highest growth rate of secondary school graduation of any OECD country. And even with NAFTA, there are far more people entering the workforce than there are jobs for them, which has helped to create one of the most cost-efficient labour markets in the world — cheaper than China’s. (If the United States, which is at full employment, was thinking with its brain instead of its pride, it would be working on ways to let more Mexican workers into the country, rather than building walls. But whatever…)

A return to Canada-U.S. bilateralism would be relinquishing a dream (granted, not one that has exactly inspired the masses) of a unified North American bloc that has it all: vast resources, a cost-efficient, skilled labour pool, a wealth of intellectual and financial capital, and the largest consumer market in the world. Brian Mulroney once spoke of the evolution of “NAFTA-plus,” an even closer integration in which the three countries would join forces to negotiate and compete with the rest of the world, in much the same way the European Union does.

Nice idea? I think so. But given the political atmosphere south of the border, it’s a pipe dream our leaders can probably no longer afford to entertain.

http://business.financialpost.com/i...with-nafta-in-play-its-every-amigo-for-itself

 

[Arkain2K]

Canada Keeps Cool as Fate of Nafta Unfolds
Officials are optimistic about emerging largely unscathed by Donald Trump’s trade battles
By Paul Vieira
Updated Jan. 27, 2017​

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heads into a cabinet retreat in Calgary on Monday.
​

As the public rift widens between Mexico and the U.S., the North American Free Trade Agreement’s third partner, Canada, has stayed out of the spotlight, reassured by signals from Washington that it will be afforded preferential treatment.

Members of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government have been lobbying U.S. lawmakers and administration officials, leaning heavily on trade statistics that show how the economies of 35 U.S. states and nine million U.S. jobs depend on cross-border trade.

But the balance of that trade may be even more significant in determining President Donald Trump’s approach to his northern neighbor, as he pursues his stated intent to renegotiate or scrap Nafta.

Mr. Trump has made erasing U.S. trade deficits a focus of his strategy to reboot the American economy. The U.S. economy slowed in the fourth-quarter to 1.9% growth, the Commerce Department reported on Friday, dragged down in part by a wider trade deficit, which brought the headline growth figure down by 1.7 percentage points.

Unlike the U.S. trade relationship with Mexico, U.S.-Canada trade is roughly in balance, with the U.S. running a trade deficit in goods with Canada at $9 billion for the first 11 months of 2016.

Stephen Schwarzman, chief executive of Blackstone Group and chairman of President Trump’s strategic and policy forum, called it “a model for the way trade relations should be” during a visit Monday to a Canadian cabinet retreat.

Canada’s ambassador in Washington, David MacNaughton, said his initial discussions with members of Mr. Trump’s team indicate there is little concern over U.S.-Canada trade.

Canadian officials are in regular contact with administration officials and key White House advisers regarding Nafta, a spokesman for Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, whose job is to manage the U.S.-Canada trading relationship, said Friday.

“We are confident the new administration will see that Canada’s partnership with the U.S. and in Nafta mutually strengthens our nations and provides real opportunities to grow our respective economies,” the spokesman said.

Should Nafta be scrapped, rules governing U.S.-Canada trade would likely revert to the terms of the 1987 U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement that was its precursor, trade-law experts say—with the caveat the Trump administration may seek a renegotiation of that pact, too.

Since Nafta’s implementation in 1994, Canadian exports to the U.S. rose from US$110 billion to roughly US$340 billion as of 2015, while imports from the U.S. grew by almost the same amount.

Three-quarters of all Canadian exports—the equivalent of one-fifth of Canada’s gross domestic product—head to the U.S., led by automobiles, motor-vehicle parts and crude oil. Canada buys about 15% of total U.S. exports of goods and services.

But Canadian products now account for roughly 12% of total U.S. imports, versus 20% in 2002, according to data from TD Bank economists. Canada has lost market share to China and Mexico as companies move operations to lower-cost jurisdictions, the bank added.

“This view that changing Nafta would be bad for Canada is totally misplaced,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto-based asset manager Gluskin Sheff & Associates. “It really was lower-cost Mexico that truly made out like bandits on the deal.”

On Friday, General Motors Co. said it would lay off up to 600 workers at a plant in the province of Ontario as production for its older Chevrolet Equinox sports-utility vehicle winds down, and the manufacturing of a new SUV model moves to Mexico.

Mr. Rosenberg said indicators like Canadian manufacturing employment and industrial production have yet to recover from highs reached early last decade, in part due to gains by Mexico on the automotive front.

Part of Canada’s lobbying effort in Washington is to underscore how integrated their supply chains across the border during decades of trade liberalization.

Nowhere are the ties deeper than in the automotive sector, which was responsible for the first deal to liberalize trade between Canada and the U.S., the 1965 Auto Pact.

In 2015, Canada ranked as the largest export market for U.S. automotive parts, with $22 billion in goods sold, according to the Ann Arbor, Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research.

Leaders in the automotive industry are working on both sides of the border to assemble data on how higher tariffs could affect their companies, said Don Walker, chief executive of Ontario car parts maker Magna International Inc.

“We just want to make sure that nothing happens that would inadvertently drive the cost up” of making cars in North America, Mr. Walker said.

Another factor in the cross-border trade relationship is Canada’s role as the U.S. biggest supplier of crude oil imports.

Canada exported about 2.9 million barrels a day of crude oil to the U.S. in October, the latest official monthly data, accounting for 41% of all imports. The volume of crude oil imports from Canada has grown over the past few years, even as overall imports have fallen.

“We have never been as dependent on one country for our imported oil as we are on Canada,” said Stephen Kelly, a visiting professor at Duke University.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-keeps-cool-as-fate-of-nafta-unfolds-1485534247

 

[Bald1]

...At least he needs our oil.....

Don't forget hydro and lumber. *fingers crossed*

 

[Arkain2K]

Don't forget hydro and lumber. *fingers crossed*

Now that Alberta's Keystone XL oil pipelines was already greenlit on good faith, it's your turn to pledge something of equal value back before making demands, pal

Which monopoly are you willing to open up first? Dairy or Beef?

 

[Bald1]

Now that Alberta's Keystone XL oil pipelines was already greenlit on good faith, it's your turn to pledge something of equal value back before making demands, pal

Which monopoly are you willing to open up first? Dairy or Beef?

Both. I'd like to release our mad cows to the UN, and by extension the US engineer corps, in order to assist with clearing minefields in former conflict zones. Ship em over and let em loose!

 

[Arkain2K]

Both. I'd like to release our mad cows to the UN, and by extension the US engineer corps, in order to assist with clearing minefields in former conflict zones. Ship em over and let em loose!

ROFLMAO! Well now that Alberta is about to become an oil boom town again, Albertan beef farmers can send their children to work on oil rigs instead of continuingthe family business of raising psycho bovine, then ends the day with a nice family dinner over 100% sane USDA steak

 

[gameoverman]

 

[mmacasualviewer]

 

[AgedFlatus]

Trudeaus such a cuck

 

[Arkain2K]

After NAFTA: Cumulative U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit With Mexico Nears $1,000,000,000,000
By Terence P. Jeffrey | January 26, 2017

Former President Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and President Bill Clinton joined together at the White House to express support for NAFTA, September 1993. ​

The cumulative merchandise trade deficit that the United States has run with Mexico in the 23 years since the North American Free Trade Agreement took effect is nearing $1,000,000,000,000, according to data published by the U.S. Census Bureau.

In the period from January 1994 through November 2016, according to Census Bureau numbers, the United States ran a cumulative merchandise trade deficit with Mexico of $986,532,000,000.

The United States now sends more money to Mexico each year through our bilateral merchandise trade deficit than we spend on our own homeland security through the federal Department of Homeland Security.

​

In calendar year 2015 alone, the bilateral U.S. merchandise trade deficit with Mexico was $60,662,800,000. That was $18,098,800,000 more than the $42,564,000,000 the United States government spent in fiscal 2015 on the Department of Homeland Security, according to Treasury Department numbers.

In the first eleven months of 2016 (November is the latest month reported), the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with Mexico was $58,798,600,000. That 11-month deficit was already $13,603,600,000 more than the $45,195,000,000 that the U.S. government spent on the Department of Homeland Security in all twelve months of fiscal 2016.

In the three years immediately before NAFTA took effect and in the first year after it took effect, the United States ran merchandise trade surpluses—not deficits--with Mexico, according to the Census Bureau.

The House and Senate approved NAFTA in 1993--not as an international treaty that would have required a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate--but under so-called “fast track” authority, which required only simple majorities in the House and Senate. President Bill Clinton signed it in December 1993.

In 1991 ($2,147,600,000),1992 ($5,381,200,000), 1993 ($1,663,300,000) and 1994 ($1,349,800,000), the U.S. ran a cumulative merchandise trade surplus with Mexico of $10,541,900,000.

Then in 1995, one year after NAFTA took effect, the U.S. ran a merchandise trade deficit with Mexico of $15,808,300,000.

In every year since then—in fact, in every month since then--the U.S. has run merchandise trade deficits with Mexico.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...ive-us-merchandise-trade-deficit-mexico-nears

 

[Arkain2K]

Quebec wants a seat at NAFTA negotiating table
Presse Canadienne
January 31, 2017

Quebec says it wants a seat at the negotiating table if the North American Free Trade Agreement is reopened.

Quebec Economy Minister Dominique Anglade made it clear on Monday the Philippe Couillard government will demand a place on the negotiating team.

“We absolutely want the interests of Quebec to be well represented, to be conveyed very strongly and very clearly, as is the case with softwood lumber,” she told reporters.

Anglade said Quebec will defend its historic position of protecting supply management in the agricultural sector, an issue that is constantly coming up in the free trade negotiations with all international partners.

On Monday, Donald Trump ended U.S. participation in the Transpacific Partnership Treaty and he has signaled his intention to renegotiate NAFTA.

Anglade is convinced she will be able to get help from American entrepreneurs who have much to lose in the NAFTA negotiations.

“People will realize that the protectionist sentiment will destroy even their own interest,” she said.

“Protectionism does not enrich societies and has been proven over time.”

The minister was accompanied by Martine Hébert, vice-president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

Hébert said her members — small and medium-size businesses — are concerned, but added there was “no widespread fear” among Canadian and Quebec exporters.

She argued there are limits to the protectionist measures the U.S. can impose, noting Canada is the main trading partner of 35 of 50 American states.

In her view, a rise in U.S. protectionism could even prove to be a unique opportunity for Canada, which could take advantage of the void created by the economic isolationism of the U.S.

“The Americans have just said that they will not be part of the Europe agreement, they will not be part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but there are advantages to signing agreements with countries abroad,” she said.

“Canada will be able to reap these benefits. We may also take the opportunity to sign some bilateral agreements; I think of Japan, for example, which could become an important partner,” Hébert added.

This, she said, is a great opportunity to diversify the export markets of Quebec and Canadian entrepreneurs.
“As our grandmothers said, we should not put all our eggs in the same basket … They were right.”

In addition, Canada believes that, because of its trade openness, Canada could increase its attractiveness to foreign investment.

Former Quebec premier Jean Charest agrees with Hébert, noting that Canada and Quebec could benefit from this wave of protectionism in the U.S.

“There is an opportunity to be a counterweight to the United States vis-à-vis China and Europe,” he said in an interview with the Canadian Press. “There are already very important indications that the Chinese are seeing us, Canada, as a response to what is happening with Mr. Trump.”

As for the renegotiation of NAFTA, Charest pointed out that Canada and Quebec are not directly affected by Donald Trump’s remarks.

“There are two countries on its radar: China and Mexico. These two countries sell more in the United States than they buy. In Canada, in 2015, our trade (with the U.S.) were roughly in balance.”

http://montrealgazette.com/business/quebec-wants-a-seat-at-nafta-negotiating-table

 

[Arkain2K]

What a Redo of NAFTA Could Mean For the Future of US-Canada Trade
By Alan Wolff
Feb 06, 2017

In the last few days, a number of Canadians have asked me what the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement might mean for Canada.

Donald Trump has been very critical of the more than two-decade old trade deal involving the US, Mexico and Canada, and has proposed to renegotiate its terms. We know that Trump is obviously not happy with America’s trade relations with Mexico, but less often, if at all, discussed is what this could mean for future relations with Canada. Part of the reason for this is that by and large the trade across the long border between the U.S. and Canada is untroubled, moving at a pace of about $2 billion a day in both directions, in about equal amounts. Canada is America's second largest trading partner; Mexico is third with about 10% less trade volume than US-Canada trade. One difference is that U.S.-Canada trade is closer to being in balance. The U.S. deficit with Canada is about $15 billion, and with Mexico is about $50 billion.

In the years leading up to last year’s US presidential election, NAFTA was accused of being a major reason for the erosion of the middle class American jobs and downward pressure on U.S. wages. In 1992, presidential candidate Ross Perot referred to U.S. job losses as a “giant sucking sound going south.” This made a strong sound bite, but most of those jobs would have disappeared or gone elsewhere, anyway, either being lost due to automation (a much greater cause of job loss) or to other lower-wage countries.

These concerns had little or nothing to do with Canada, but our northern neighbor has nevertheless been caught in the call for renegotiating NAFTA since it’s part of the three-country trade deal. The question now is what is in store for U.S.-Canada trade under a Trump administration?

One likely target is auto parts from other countries, particularly China. A likely demand will be to make sure they do not get incorporated into cars that get duty free entry under NAFTA. The charge is that the rules for inclusion of non-NAFTA content in North American trade are too loose. So expect them to be tightened. Since the tougher foreign content rules would apply both to imports from Mexico and Canada, this could affect Canadian production to some extent because sourcing has become global in the auto industry. Each auto company will have to figure out how limiting sourcing of components from outside North America affects its production.

The Trump Administration has also accused foreign countries of taking away American jobs by manipulating the value of their currencies to gain a competitive advantage. A renegotiation of NAFTA could very well address this issue, but it likely won’t impact Canada because Canada is not being accused of manipulating the value of its currency, the Canadian Dollar.

While most trade is open between Canada and the United States, there are exceptions, and U.S. and Canadian businesses will want to see some adjustments made. As renegotiation of NAFTA gets under way, the following are some of the issues that will undoubtedly arise:

The U.S. will likely ask for a reduction of Canadian protection against dairy, poultry and egg imports. This is a longstanding issue. U.S. farmers believe that they could sell a lot more of these products in Canada if Canadian import restrictions were eased. Another burden on American business is that Canadian courts have been invalidating patents years after they were issued, although the products covered by the patents have been marketed in Canada for a long time and proved their value to Canadian consumers. This is particularly true of pharmaceuticals, but affects other products as well. Canada could be asked to legislate a solution to this problem to be fairer in determining that a patent holder has proved the usefulness of its product and should retain protection of its intellectual property.

Another longstanding issue is the restrictiveness of provincial authorities in allowing beer, wine and spirits from outside the province to be marketed in provincial liquor stores.

A new issue is Canada's considering a requirement that storage facilities for cloud data be located within Canada. A number of countries are considering requiring localization of data storage in the name of national security or privacy, but it is simply impractical for any international business to store company data in each place where it operates. This is a new and growing issue.

Most obvious to everyone as a barrier to U.S. trade is the imbalance in the amount that of goods that Canada allows its citizens coming back from visiting the U.S. to bring in duty-free compared with the duty-free allowance for Americans returning to the U.S. from Canada. This measure would be popular among Canadian tourists and be good for U.S. retailers. For the same reason, parity in the amount that can be shipped in small parcels going north as well as south is a likely as a U.S. ask.

The list of Canadian negotiating objectives will grow as Canadian officials hear from their domestic industries and agriculture about what America can do to be more open to Canadian goods and services. For instance, as the US takes steps to invest heavily on American infrastructure, Canadian companies will want to be able to bid without being subject to discrimination on contracts. There may be additional requests for free access to the U.S. market for energy, although the largest ask seems to have already been met by the Trump Administration beginning to approve pipeline construction that had been held up during the Obama years.

Besides lists of specific private sector matters, there will also be recognition on the part of the two governments that the needs of international trade have evolved substantially since NAFTA went into force 23 years ago. High on that list will be addressing the needs of the digital economy that did not exist when NAFTA was written. There will be other areas in which both countries will want to put into place provisions, such as rules governing commercial competition from state-owned enterprises, that are not as relevant to North American trade as they are to setting a standard for future trade agreements with other countries. Since both U.S. and Canadian trade negotiators just finished extensive negotiations in the stillborn Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, they have some thirty chapters of rules and trade commitments to draw on as models with which to modernize NAFTA..

Lastly, there may be large trade issues – such as the current investigation of Canadian provincial subsidies for softwood lumber and complaints about restrictions on the export of logs, the settlement of which could get folded into a NAFTA negotiation.

Although just two months ago, renegotiation of NAFTA was not on either country’s agenda, it is now at the top of the list of bilateral trade negotiations priorities. Chances are that the negotiations will be long and very detailed. A once in a generation trade negotiation is an opportunity to address the full range of remaining barriers and trade and investment concerns that each of our two countries has with the other.

The U.S. Canadian relationship is strong and positive. There is always room for improvement, and the results can be very good for the economies of both countries.


Alan Wm. Wolff is a Senior Counsel at Dentons and Chairman of the Board of the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC). He was a senior trade negotiator in both Republican and Democratic administrations.

http://fortune.com/2017/02/06/donald-trump-nafta-mexico-2/