My evaluation of Khabib vs. Tony

Fair outlook. I wouldn't rule out a Khabib finish victory but I expect him to win by snagging 3-4 rounds.
 
mkess101 said:
Did you look at the actual ones vs MJ and Lee though LOL? Balance shots that were utterly meaningless. And he damn sure wasn't "rocked" in those fights. You are claiming he's "dropped and rocked" in every fight. I pointed out the two fights during his 11 fight wins streak where he was actually "dropped and rocked". What exactly am I making up? I could go through the rest of his wins one by one to point out how it doesn't happen, but I'm guessing you don't need me to do that. You already know that RDA, Barboza, Tibau, Trujillo, etc. etc. didn't "rock and drop" him, don't ya?
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Dude, if you get put directly on your ass from a strike then you got rocked. Tony has great stamina and his ability to recover is prolly the best in the game but he still gets DROPPED and ROCKED in almost every recent fight, happy?? His fans always downplay his flaws. Khabib never gets put in a position to get dropped nor does he have to recover.

Khabib is better than Tony in stand up and grappling
 
Noraaq said:
Dude, if you get put directly on your ass from a strike then you got rocked. Tony has great stamina and his ability to recover is prolly the best in the game but he still gets DROPPED and ROCKED in almost every recent fight, happy?? His fans always downplay his flaws. Khabib never gets put in a position to get dropped nor does he have to recover.

Khabib is better than Tony in stand up and grappling
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Just to be clear: you think the balance shot that Lee knocked Tony down with (or for that matter in the next round where Tony did the same thing to Lee) that either guy were "rocked"? Is that actually your claim? I just want to make sure I'm not misrepresenting your view here.
 
mkess101 said:
Just to be clear: you think the balance shot that Lee knocked Tony down with (or for that matter in the next round where Tony did the same thing to Lee) that either guy were "rocked"? Is that actually your claim? I just want to make sure I'm not misrepresenting your view here.
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YES I think Tony was hurt repeatedly in that fight, if he wasnt then theres no way Lee wouldve passed his guards so easily and full mounted him with ease.

Now, I could only imagine what youd be saying if it was Khabib in the same situation vs Lee and Pettis and Vando..lmao he'd be getting grilled (hell, look at the nonsense ppl said after the MJ fight)
 
Noraaq said:
YES I think Tony was hurt repeatedly in that fight, if he wasnt then theres no way Lee wouldve passed his guards so easily and full mounted him with ease.

Now, I could only imagine what youd be saying if it was Khabib in the same situation vs Lee and Pettis and Vando..lmao he'd be getting grilled (hell, look at the nonsense ppl said after the MJ fight)
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Yeah, this is why I shouldn't bother arguing with some of you people.



Tony throws a kick and Lee times his hook perfectly so that Tony is off balance. Notice Tony immediately bounces up ready to resume striking. Or...maybe you don't notice that. Maybe it's more fun for you to create this fantasy land in your head where Tony was "rocked" by Lee in this sequence LOL. Whatever, like I said, probably a waste of my time trying to educate some of you.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah, this is why I shouldn't bother arguing with some of you people.



Tony throws a kick and Lee times his hook perfectly so that Tony is off balance. Notice Tony immediately bounces up ready to resume striking. Or...maybe you don't notice that. Maybe it's more fun for you to create this fantasy land in your head where Tony was "rocked" by Lee in this sequence LOL. Whatever, like I said, probably a waste of my time trying to educate some of you.
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That clip just proved my point, how often does Tony back peddle if hes not hurt? lmao, thanks
 
Noraaq said:
That clip just proved my point, how often does Tony back peddle if hes not hurt? lmao, thanks
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Umm all the time if someone is going spaz chasing him like Lee did there. Tony applies a lot of forward pressure but he's not balls out coming forward every second of every fight. Are you being serious here? Literally nobody that's ever seen him fight (or hell, seen ANY UFC fight) would think Tony was hurt there.

I always think this place can't surprise me anymore. And I'm always proven wrong...
 
My analysis:

RD 1: 10-8 Khabib
RD 2: 10-7 Khabib
RD 3: 10-9 Khabib
RD 4: 10-8 Khabib
RD 5: Khabib wins via TKO
 
DeeDubb said:
I see two realistic routes to victory against Khabib (besides getting lucky).

A. Unreal takedown defense while not sacrificing striking in the process. No one outside of Tibau has shown the ability to stop Khabib's takedowns, and Khabib has evolved since that fight. I don't think anyone can consistently stop Khabib's takedown. This ain't gonna be how Tony wins.

OR

B. The ability to retain more gas in the tank from the bottom than Khabib from the top. The ability to tire out Khabib from the bottom. Seems crazy right? But It could happen, and I think Ferg is the guy who can do it.

I think Ferg poses a serious problem for Khabib. Khabib relies on his ability to make fighters wilt under his top pressure. Ferg is too good on his back, and will neutralize a lot of Khabib's top offense with ease. Ferg will not get tired even being pressured from the top, because he is so good and so aggressive off his back. I think Ferg is way too wily to get his legs tied up the way that Khabib ties everyone else's legs up.

McGregor showed that he could prevent damage in round 1, but he lost too much energy in the process. Khabib was gassed after his offensive explosion at the end of round 2, but Conor was too tired to take advantage in Round 3 (though it was his best round).

I don't think Khabib's cardio is as legendary as everyone makes it out to be. He gets tired in his fights. He takes breaks from shooting for takedowns to stand, not because he wants to "show off", but because he's legit tired and needs a break from the exhausting work of grappling someone to the ground. He's won in those circumstances because he sapped his opponents so badly that they have nothing left to come back with.

I think Khabib will be able to take down and control Ferg in the early rounds, possibly through round 3, but don't be surprised if Ferg doesn't slice Khabib up with his razor sharp elbows from the guard.

I think Khabib will work extremely hard to hold Ferg down, and Khabib will wilt in the later rounds. Ferg will start piecing up Khabib on the feet in round 4 or 5.

Khabib will take round 1 and 2.

Round 3 will be a tossup

Round 4 and 5, Khabib will have very few takedowns, and simply survive on his feet.

It'll either be a very close, bloody decision for either of them, or Tony will finish Khabib in the 5th.

I have no bias, and I'm probably a bigger fan of Khabib than I am of Ferg, but I think Ferg has every tool he needs beat Khabib.
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solid evaluation, But seems risky to think Khabib will melt
 
Marc A said:
solid evaluation, But seems risky to think Khabib will melt
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We haven’t seen it yet, so maybe he’ll last all 5, but it’ll be a different kind of energy from Tony. I could be totally wrong, but I’m pumped to see it.
 
Allingtonskates said:
Kevin Lee was destroying Tony b4 he gassed bc of his staff infection. Khabib rag dolls him IMO.
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This. Kevin Lee had full mount on Tony. Where was Tony's "best BJJ in the division" as his fans like to claim? Where was his guard? Until staph infected Lee gassed, Tony had barely anything for him on the ground apart from a few elbows. Khabib will son him on the ground and destroy the false narrative of Tony's BJJ being good.
 
Noraaq said:
Dude, if you get put directly on your ass from a strike then you got rocked. Tony has great stamina and his ability to recover is prolly the best in the game but he still gets DROPPED and ROCKED in almost every recent fight, happy?? His fans always downplay his flaws. Khabib never gets put in a position to get dropped nor does he have to recover.

Khabib is better than Tony in stand up and grappling
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Khabib would get dropped off Woodley easy and couldn't take him down either but ducks him and calls himself the Floyd of MMA

The guy isn't invincible and holds a grapple advantage v lightweights but would get exposed at welterweight
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah, this is why I shouldn't bother arguing with some of you people.



Tony throws a kick and Lee times his hook perfectly so that Tony is off balance. Notice Tony immediately bounces up ready to resume striking. Or...maybe you don't notice that. Maybe it's more fun for you to create this fantasy land in your head where Tony was "rocked" by Lee in this sequence LOL. Whatever, like I said, probably a waste of my time trying to educate some of you.
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It wasn't a balance only thing, Tony was definitely hurt with that punch. He was moving towards Lee, making the punch more powerful than it would have been otherwise and you can clearly see that he's at least somewhat hurt from the way he tries to back away after he gets up and even touches his face.

Tony fans heavily overrate his chin when, in reality, it's far from being amazing. Tony gets dropped more than anyone in the top 5 at LW, what saves him is his amazing recovery and the ability to think clearly while being hurt. Also, Tony is not getting younger and his chin has been through some wars (Tony took more damage in the first round against RDA than Khabib took throughout the entire fight). Sooner or later that chin is going to get cracked from all the wear and tear and Tony's career will be over, because his striking defense is abhorrent.
 
Good analysis but I see a snap down darce or other choke as a way Tony could be done with khabib before 3 round even. Look how he delt with many who tried to take him down. Tony just has so many ways to win I will be putting my money on him
 
Tony will take a leaf from Jones book. A Deep eye poke early in the fight and then pick khabib off from range. D'arce in round 3 - 4 while blind khabib shoots for a single.
<JonesLaugh>
 
TapMachine said:
This. Kevin Lee had full mount on Tony. Where was Tony's "best BJJ in the division" as his fans like to claim? Where was his guard? Until staph infected Lee gassed, Tony had barely anything for him on the ground apart from a few elbows. Khabib will son him on the ground and destroy the false narrative of Tony's BJJ being good.
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False narrative? He's got the best submission record at lightweight
He submitted Lee and you use that fight to say he doesn't have BJJ? Clown
 
Part B is basically exactly how I have been saying Tony would win.

I said Khabib will take early rounds.. I think somewhere in round 3, the tide will start to turn. Tony makes fighters work so much, even when on his back. He gassed out Kevin Lee from his back. I think this will be the pivotal round for Tony as I do believe he will be able to outwork Khabib in rounds 4 and 5.

I think it will go to a decision but I am hoping Tony can find a way to break Khabib.
 
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