My evaluation of Khabib vs. Tony

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by DeeDubb, Oct 23, 2018.

  1. DeeDubb

    DeeDubb Gracie Online Black Belt

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    I see two realistic routes to victory against Khabib (besides getting lucky).

    A. Unreal takedown defense while not sacrificing striking in the process. No one outside of Tibau has shown the ability to stop Khabib's takedowns, and Khabib has evolved since that fight. I don't think anyone can consistently stop Khabib's takedown. This ain't gonna be how Tony wins.

    OR

    B. The ability to retain more gas in the tank from the bottom than Khabib from the top. The ability to tire out Khabib from the bottom. Seems crazy right? But It could happen, and I think Ferg is the guy who can do it.

    I think Ferg poses a serious problem for Khabib. Khabib relies on his ability to make fighters wilt under his top pressure. Ferg is too good on his back, and will neutralize a lot of Khabib's top offense with ease. Ferg will not get tired even being pressured from the top, because he is so good and so aggressive off his back. I think Ferg is way too wily to get his legs tied up the way that Khabib ties everyone else's legs up.

    McGregor showed that he could prevent damage in round 1, but he lost too much energy in the process. Khabib was gassed after his offensive explosion at the end of round 2, but Conor was too tired to take advantage in Round 3 (though it was his best round).

    I don't think Khabib's cardio is as legendary as everyone makes it out to be. He gets tired in his fights. He takes breaks from shooting for takedowns to stand, not because he wants to "show off", but because he's legit tired and needs a break from the exhausting work of grappling someone to the ground. He's won in those circumstances because he sapped his opponents so badly that they have nothing left to come back with.

    I think Khabib will be able to take down and control Ferg in the early rounds, possibly through round 3, but don't be surprised if Ferg doesn't slice Khabib up with his razor sharp elbows from the guard.

    I think Khabib will work extremely hard to hold Ferg down, and Khabib will wilt in the later rounds. Ferg will start piecing up Khabib on the feet in round 4 or 5.

    Khabib will take round 1 and 2.

    Round 3 will be a tossup

    Round 4 and 5, Khabib will have very few takedowns, and simply survive on his feet.

    It'll either be a very close, bloody decision for either of them, or Tony will finish Khabib in the 5th.


    I have no bias, and I'm probably a bigger fan of Khabib than I am of Ferg, but I think Ferg has every tool he needs beat Khabib.
     
  2. Ûdun Ghuephd

    Ûdun Ghuephd большой ошибкой

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    Part B is a solid analysis. I would change a few points myself but overall solid. This is exactly why Ferg poses a true threat and has a very good chance of winning. I think the fight favors Khabib still but by only a bit.

    Part A is bad. Too many people here think Tibau won. He didn't. Those who think he won clearly never saw the fight or completely bought Rogans favoritism. All Tibau did was survive. He was also juiced to the gills. Surviving Khabib is a losing game plan. I can expand here if needed as I actually did watch and rewatched the fight. Khabib won and beat a very strong, juiced man. This is not a path to beat him.
     
  3. gevoudane

    gevoudane ʇlǝq ʞɔɐlq

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    The way I see the fight, its the two best fighters at their weight finally fighting. Im going to be doiwn with el cucuy, but Khabib can just as easily win this match. And I wont really be to upset.
     
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  4. Megatronlee

    Megatronlee Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Tony is gnna talk about his kid and beat the shit outta khabib.

    Tony tko round 3
     
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  5. MMAOracle

    MMAOracle White Belt

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    round 1
    khabib gets tony to the ground, and tries to gas him (slight exchanges here and there but nothing significant) Khabib wins the round

    round 2
    khabib takes damage but takes tony to the ground and tries to gas him (draw)

    round 3
    khabib stands up with tony and gets hurt (tony wins)

    round 4
    khabib takes tony to the ground and mauls him, Tony starts bleeding (khabib)

    round 5
    both stand up and go all crazy but Tony starts limping because his knee is torn. In trying to defend the TD from Khabib, Tony slightly tears it. (tony)

    winner by split decision khabib
    *afterwards, Joe Rogan, Bisping and Shaub go crazy about how Ferguson fight showed so many loopholes in Khabib's game.
    Ferguson afterwards blames his torn ACL. He wants an immediate rematch. He claims that Khabib lucked out in the last minute of the fight.

    In all honesty, I see more ways in which Khabib can win than ferguson. No doubt Ferguson is talented but winning against a grappler is extremely hard since their game plays are so systematized.
     
  6. Abazzdeboom

    Abazzdeboom Legend in the making

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  7. Tap machine

    Tap machine Orange Belt

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    *
    Gleison Tibau has the best TDD in the history of MMA (28 UFC bouts 92%TDD)

    *
    *

    568585895.JPG 656949684948.JPG
     
  8. ZOD66

    ZOD66 Purple Belt

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    Some drunk Conor fan could kill Khabib and we will not see nothing
     
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  9. SexyBaroni

    SexyBaroni Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    OLE! OLE! OLE! OLE!

     
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  10. DeeDubb

    DeeDubb Gracie Online Black Belt

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    Oh no, I wasn’t implying that Tibau won. Just that he was the only one who consistently stopped the takedown. I don’t think he’s a blueprint for beating Khabib. He’s more of a demonstration of why the Part A route to victory is so difficult.
     
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  11. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    You just ripped off everything I've been posting here about this fight for years (okay not "years" but ever since they tried to put it together the third time).

    Kidding. I know you probably never saw my posts. Good analysis overall. I will say I don't think there are THAT many people still claiming Khabib has great cardio after seeing him slow vs Iaquinta and need rd 3 off vs Conor. It's not that he had BAD cardio, his style just takes a ton of energy and so far he hasn't fought anyone like Tony who does have legendary cardio.
     
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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I've seen the Tibau fight multiple times too. Please don't act like it was a clear win for Khabib, that just makes you look dumb or biased. I want to also say I had $ on Khabib in that fight and was happy about the decision. But it EASILY could have gone the other way. Every media outlet that scored it had it for Tibau. He slightly outlanded Khabib and stuffed all 13 TD attempts. Now, that said Khabib pushed forward more and definitely got credit for being the aggressor.

    Bottom line: It was a close, boring fight that could have gone either way. Yes Tibau was on the sauce, and honestly the fight has little relevance now. Khabib uses a different style of wrestling now, he figured out how to utilize the cage.

    Tibau was also juiced when Tony finished him early for the record. Just have to toss that in there LOL.
     
  13. Ûdun Ghuephd

    Ûdun Ghuephd большой ошибкой

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    But it was a clear win for Khabib. Joe Rogan was yelling "ohhhhhhhhhh!!!!" Every time Tibau did the smallest thing and people were biased because of it. After the fight but before the decision the audience can hear Joe say, " Tibau clearly won." After the decision when Joe interved Khabib he even questioned if Khabib felt he won it, implying he hadn't.

    It was horrible, biased commentary and nothing more. Khabib won and won clearly by every measure. Period. So please don't act like it wasn't a clear win for Khabib. That just makes you look like you never actually saw the fight or just drink Joe's coolaid.

    The fight wasn't close. By the scoring measure in place, Khabib won on every point. He was the aggressor, he did more damage, he had and maintained octogon control, had the better strikes and was never in any trouble at all. He absolutely won, and won clearly by the then scoring measure. Please don't comment on stuff you didn't watch or don't understand.

    Here is a video you should watch. Tell me again how Tibau won, LMFAO

     
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  14. Felsh

    Felsh 57-0

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    Eddie has gone into detail about attacking from the ground instead of working to frantically get up. I think the key is that Tony is dangerous everywhere.
     
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  15. D'z

    D'z Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Tony is certifiable. He's crazy. Crazy has the ability to beat unrelenting will.
     
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  16. Arm Barbarian

    Arm Barbarian Steel Belt Platinum Member

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  17. Allingtonskates

    Allingtonskates i do this shit with no effort

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    Kevin Lee was destroying Tony b4 he gassed bc of his staff infection. Khabib rag dolls him IMO.
     
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  18. DeeDubb

    DeeDubb Gracie Online Black Belt

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    Looks like quite a few like-minded folks. Glad to see some other people with some good analysis. Hopefully we're right. I really want to see how Khabib deals with an aggressive Tony off of his back. Khabib is definitely going to bleed in the fight. I don't think there's any way he avoids that. Those short elbows are too easy and too sharp.
     
  19. DeeDubb

    DeeDubb Gracie Online Black Belt

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    "Destroying" is a pretty strong word, but I think the Kevin Lee fight is pretty interesting.



    The only time Tony was in serious trouble was when Kevin Lee mounted him. Even fully mounted, he didn't take a lot of damage, and used his aggressive hip movement to keep Kevin Lee uncomfortable and not striking. Before the round ended, Tony had already begun to escape. Kevin had nothing for Tony inside of Tony's closed guard. It was all nasty elbows and submission attempts.

    Khabib generally avoids closed guard by wrapping his legs around his opponents legs and controlling all hip and leg movement, especially when he wraps so tight that the opponents ankles cross. This would be really bad news for Tony, but I think Tony can avoid that. I think it's going to be a battle of Khabib's mauling from the top vs Tony's mauling from the bottom. It'll be super bloody and super exciting.
     
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  20. Dana's Moonface

    Dana's Moonface Green Belt

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    Good write up. I have mentioned in a previous thread I think Khabib will win the first three and survive a late rally from Ferguson.

    It's a good fight and no man is a clear favourite in my view. I do favour Khabib, but Ferguson is very dangerous and well rounded.
     
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