Murders in US very concentrated: 54% of US counties in 2014 had zero murders

[Son of Jamin]

The Distribution of murders
The United States can really be divided up into three types of places. Places where there are no murders, places where there are a few murders, and places where murders are very common.

In 2014, the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available, 54% of counties (with 11% of the population) have no murders. 69% of counties have no more than one murder, and about 20% of the population. These counties account for only 4% of all murders in the country.

The worst 1% of counties have 19% of the population and 37% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 47% of the population and account for 68% of murders. As shown in figure 2, over half of murders occurred in only 2% of counties.

Murders actually used to be even more concentrated. From 1977 to 2000, on average 73 percent of counties in any give year had zero murders. Possibly, this change is a result of the opioid epidemic’s spread to more rural areas. But that question is beyond the scope of this study. Lott’s book “More Guns, Less Crime” showed how dramatically counties within states vary dramatically with respect to murder and other violent crime rates.

Even within the Counties with the murders, the murders are heavily Concentrated within those counties
When you look at individual counties with a high number of murders, you find large areas with few murders. Take Los Angeles County, with 526 murders in 2014, the most of any county in the US. The county has virtually no murders in the northwestern part of the county. There was only one murder each in Beverly Hills, Hawthorne, and Van Nuys. Clearly, different parts of the county face very different risks of murder.

https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/n...54-us-counties-2014-zero-murders-69-1-murder/

Cliffs:

* The majority of counties have zero murders in 2014
* Gun ownership is 2,11 times more prevalent in rural than urban areas
* Homicides are heavily concentrated in certain areas within certain counties.

 

[Headkicktoleg]

I think banning California and Florida would be more effective than guns

 

[The Russian]

Let's make fun of rednecks and rural people who own guns cuz it's funny and legal while Tyrone and Rodney are gunning each other down at publix. Blame white gun owners for it.<45>

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

What's the over/under of the SLWL mods dumping this thread?

8 posts??

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

Let's make fun of rednecks and rural people who own guns cuz it's funny and legal while Tyrone and Rodney are gunning each other down at publix. Blame white gun owners for it.<45>

We need to ban ar15s!!!!! They are responsible for most homicides in the US!!!

 

[DespicablePeep]

So rural gun loving america is safe?

 

[Rational Poster]

What's the over/under of the SLWL mods dumping this thread?

8 posts??

What's the over/under that anyone but you ever says something so dumb as SLWL?

 

[The Russian]

What's the over/under of the SLWL mods dumping this thread?

8 posts??

You being generous brah.

 

[Exception]

Huh, imagine that.

 

[The Russian]

South Dakota seems nice this time of the year. LOL
California...

 

[Neph]

So half of the counties in the US had murders in them. That's not good.

The map looks suspiciously similar to a population density map which is also of no surprise. Small rural county = low population = less likely to have murders.

 

[Son of Jamin]

So half of the counties in the US had murders in them. That's not good.

The map looks suspiciously similar to a population density map which is also of no surprise. Small rural county = low population = less likely to have murders.

Fair point but it's also heavily concentrated within counties.

 

[Headkicktoleg]

So half of the counties in the US had murders in them. That's not good.

The map looks suspiciously similar to a population density map which is also of no surprise. Small rural county = low population = less likely to have murders.

If you look at the chart it shows 68% of murders happen in 5% of counties.

 

[Neph]

Moore and Bergner Justice Policy Journal, Spring 2016

The Relationship between Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime

http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/jpj_firearm_ownership.pdf

Abstract Criminologists and other researchers have attempted to understand whether there is a connection between firearm prevalence and crime. Some experts have argued that prevalence of firearms increases crime, while others have argued it reduces crime. The purpose of this study was to further investigate and clarify this relationship. The current analysis used suicide by firearm as a proxy for firearm ownership. Examining violent crime, homicide, rape, robbery, and assault for 1,997 counties in the United States, the findings indicate that increased prevalence of firearms was associated with increased violent crime, homicide, rape, robbery, and assault. The results of this study suggest that a decrease in prevalence of firearms has the potential to decrease violent crime in the United States.

 

[tonni]

Moore and Bergner Justice Policy Journal, Spring 2016

The Relationship between Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime

http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/jpj_firearm_ownership.pdf

Abstract Criminologists and other researchers have attempted to understand whether there is a connection between firearm prevalence and crime. Some experts have argued that prevalence of firearms increases crime, while others have argued it reduces crime. The purpose of this study was to further investigate and clarify this relationship. The current analysis used suicide by firearm as a proxy for firearm ownership. Examining violent crime, homicide, rape, robbery, and assault for 1,997 counties in the United States, the findings indicate that increased prevalence of firearms was associated with increased violent crime, homicide, rape, robbery, and assault. The results of this study suggest that a decrease in prevalence of firearms has the potential to decrease violent crime in the United States.

Okay those numbers are great and all but what about black people though.

 

[PlayswellwithLawnDarts]

So half of the counties in the US had murders in them. That's not good.

The map looks suspiciously similar to a population density map which is also of no surprise. Small rural county = low population = less likely to have murders.

Not good but looks like 25% of it runs along the Mexican American border.
That’s block of red must be the biggest countie in North America

 

[Neph]

The National Center for Biotechnology Information

The Relationship Between Gun Ownership and Firearm Homicide Rates in the United States, 1981–2010

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828709/

Results. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%.

Conclusions. We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides.

 

[Neph]

Okay those numbers are great and all but what about black people though.

Not good but looks like 25% of it runs along the Mexican American border.
That’s block of red must be the biggest countie in North America

How about Mexico instead of Black? Do I get partial credit?

 

[PlayswellwithLawnDarts]

How about Mexico instead of Black? Do I get partial credit?

Randy is that you?

 

[Neph]

Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime in the U.S. An Ecologic Study

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/bc6f/104b5b658796ce6b7ca1e1afe8caeb55ff6b.pdf

Results: Higher levels of firearm ownership were associated with higher levels of firearm assault and firearm robbery. There was also a significant association between firearm ownership and firearm homicide, as well as overall homicide.

Conclusions: The findings do not support the hypothesis that higher population firearm ownership rates reduce firearm-associated criminal perpetration. On the contrary, evidence shows that states with higher levels of firearm ownership have an increased risk for violent crimes perpetrated with a firearm. Public health stakeholders should consider the outcomes associated with private firearm ownership.