Making America Great Again (Really)

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If you look at a country's economy through the scope of five main sectors - giving broad examples here - from the bottom up: primary (agriculture), secondary (manufacturing), tertiary (services), quaternary (science), quinary (executive) then government sits at the top of the pyramid but -almost- regardless of what the current admin does, America is making itself 'great again' through maximium utilization of its geography, natural resources and innovative culture.

It has the most advanced services sector in the world, but it's the primary and secondary invigorated by an incomparable quarternary (do see below) that are responsible for bolstering and driving the inevitable geopolitical recalibration. From possessing the largest and most productive contiguous region of arable land mass in the world to being on the cusp of becoming the globe's top petroleum producer and exporter to the large-scale manufacturing reshoring and re-industrialization taking place.

The 'need' for a Transatlantic Alliance, Middle Eastern energy imports and Factory Asia's bottomless supply of cheap labor are all in the process of being gutted without mercy or exordium and it's only just getting started. A consolidated review of recent events, outlooks and facts - some previously provided by @Arkain2K.

Is this what a "decline" looks like?

Financial Times: US Set To Overtake Saudi Arabia And Rival Russia In Crude Output

US crude production is on course to overtake Saudi Arabia and rival Russia, the International Energy Agency said, as it revised higher its 2018 growth forecast and stressed that “explosive” expansion in shale was offsetting OPEC-led supply cuts.

In its closely watched monthly oil market report published on Friday, the IEA said production growth was returning “to the heady days of 2013-2015”, even as the Paris-based body said global supply and demand would broadly find balance this year.

The latest body to raise US estimates, following the US energy department’s statistics arm and OPECs own research unit, the IEA said: “This year promises to be a record-setting one for the US.”

OP Citi: US To Become World's Top Oil Exporter

As global oil markets shift their attention from U.S. shale oil production back to a resurgent Saudi Arabia and Russia and geopolitical concerns bearing down on oil prices, Citigroup said last Wednesday that the U.S. is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia next year as the world’s largest exporter of crude and oil products.

The U.S. exported a record 8.3 million barrels per day (bpd) last week of crude oil and petroleum products, the government also said Wednesday. Top crude oil exporter Saudi Arabia’s, for its part, exported 9.3 million bpd in January, while Russia exported 7.4 million bpd, the bank added.

Gonna be a lot less than 11% with the way things are going.

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OZY: The US Is Beating China On The Factory Floor. This Is Why.

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What’s behind America’s new place at the front of the pack? It comes down to an ongoing economic boom that some analysts are calling “Manufacturing 4.0” or “Next Manufacturing.” Manufacturers are finding that the total cost of ownership (TCO) favors U.S.-based factory production, explains Harry Moser, founder and president of the Chicago-based Reshoring Initiative, a nonprofit think tank that supports U.S.-based manufacturing.

The domestic energy boom in natural gas and fracking has lowered the cost of materials and operations, prompting more factories to return to U.S. soil. Then there’s proximity to a growing field of local suppliers that provide raw materials. And keeping production in the country means there are no duties and tariffs, reduced inventory carrying costs and R&D innovations on the factory floor aren’t at risk of intellectual property theft. Also, the U.S. doesn’t have to lower its prices or wages to be competitive with China; it needs only “a lower total cost to produce that product,” Moser explains.

But it’s about big data and high-tech innovations, too. Manufacturing is increasingly using predictive capabilities to generate value and create more efficient, lower-cost logistics to handle materials throughout the supply chain. U.S. labor costs are still higher than those of other nations, but the ability to create smart products and smart factories will make this less relevant over time.

There are potential obstacles in the United States’ race to No. 1. For one, the continued strength of the dollar could dampen international sales of U.S. industrial exports. Smart factories need skilled labor, and the number of STEM graduates and “upskilled” workers who have received technical training may not be able to keep pace with demand. What’s not going to be a problem? Robots taking jobs. Thirty-seven percent of U.S. industrialists say their need for skilled labor will actually increase as physical production becomes automated, according to a recent survey by PwC.

Reshoring Initiative Data Report: Reshoring Plus FDI Job Announcements Up 2,800% Since 2010

In 2017 the combined reshoring and related foreign direct investment (FDI) announcements surged, adding over 171,000 jobs in 2017, with an additional 67,000 in revisions to the years 2010 through 2016. This brings the total number of manufacturing jobs brought to the U.S. from offshore to over 576,000 since the manufacturing employment low of 2010. The 171,000 reshoring and FDI job announcements equal 90% of the 189,000 total manufacturing jobs added in 2017. In 2017 announcements of combined Reshoring and FDI jobs were up 122% compared to unrevised 2016 totals and 52% compared to revised 2016 totals.

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Oxford Academic: European Paradox or Delusion - Are European Science and Economy Outdated?

The European Union (EU) seems to presume that the mass production of European research papers indicates that Europe is a leading scientific power, and the so-called European paradox of strong science but weak technology is due to inefficiencies in the utilization of this top level European science by European industry. We fundamentally disagree, and will show that Europe lags far behind the USA in the production of important, highly cited research.

We will show that there is a consistent weakening of European science as one ascends the citation scale, with the EU almost twice as effective in the production of minimal impact papers, while the USA is at least twice as effective in the production of very highly cited scientific papers, and garnering Nobel prizes. Only in the highly multinational, collaborative fields of physics and clinical medicine does the EU seem to approach the USA in top scale impact.


Rolling 12-month Nature Index for high-quality scientific research publications, you can expect that lead to increase significantly over the next 12-18 months at minimum. Ideally, this figure would be closer to 18,000+ if not higher. Why? Because the March omnibus bill was the highest inflation-adjusted R&D investment in US history at the federal level.

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Encouraging news, looks like I picked the right degree at the right time. Yay STEM.
 
America is making itself 'great again' through maximium utilization of its geography, natural resources and innovative culture.

Man that was a long post. Good news though, but we are still killing each other in school shootings and drug related crime. American kids are getting dumber by the year. Thanks to the internet, Facebook, and Twitter. They don't read books anymore. They can't point to Germany in a map. Most of the American intellect is coming from other countries (Asians) and working at U.S. universities. I don't think America ever stopped being great.

...and Wernher von Braun and the Saturn V still rule!
 
Man that was a long post. Good news though, but we are still killing each other in school shootings and drug related crime. American kids are getting dumber by the year. Thanks to the internet, Facebook, and Twitter. They don't read books anymore. They can't point to Germany in a map. Most of the American intellect is coming from other countries (Asians) and working at U.S. universities. I don't think America ever stopped being great.

...and Wernher von Braun and the Saturn V still rule!

This is the biggest problem.

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American kids are getting dumber by the year. Thanks to the internet, Facebook, and Twitter. They don't read books anymore. They can't point to Germany in a map. Most of the American intellect is coming from other countries (Asians) and working at U.S. universities.

That can and does vary pretty drastically by region and state with a lot of socioeconomic and quality of education standards coming into play. I don't personally put a lot of stock into something such as IQ as I find it to be an incredibly narrow metric of what constitutes 'intelligence', but regions such as New England and North Midwest (where I'm from) are as competitive as any around the globe. The "Dumb American" stereotype is a bit of an overplayed hand at this point.

The biggest reason Asians tend to naturally excel in subjects such as mathematics is as much due to the structure of their alphabets. It's intelligence but far more in crystallized rather than fluid sense. If we're talking about discoveries, development and achievements in historical terms that necessitate abstract thought then Asians absolutely haven't and don't dominate mathematics. And Asian-Americans as much American as anyone else as it is, it's that confluence and diversified pool of genetics and ideas that the country draws so much strength from.

FTR: There's damn few Asians in North Dakota, bruh.

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Increasing output in a finite resource while ignoring renewable sources is an easy victory - but a victory only in the eyes of idiots who missed the "finite" part of "finite resources". But it does what it's exactly intended to do - it makes the short-sighted happy. It's all about the short term with this insane clown posse
 
This is the biggest problem.

EPI.png

I’m curious to know if productivity is increased due to tools that employers have invested into their employees to make them more productive and therefore they aren’t actually doing more work theyre just more efficient at the work they are doing. Should you be paid more because employers have mad you more productive?
 
Each president is taking on previous one shit.
Trump imo most real guy since kennedy
 
If you want to honestly evaluate something, you choose the metrics beforehand. "What would tell us how we're doing? What do those metrics say?" If someone is just doing cheap propaganda rather than analysis, what they ask is, "what are metrics that appear to tell the story I want to tell?"

Is "U.S. crude output compared to that of Saudi Arabia and Russia" a metric that people follow closely and use to determine success or something grabbed because someone thinks it tells a story?

FTR, I think the U.S. economy is doing fine right now. I'm a long-term growth pessimist, though (not just the U.S.--I think in general, the low-hanging fruit has been picked, and we shouldn't expect to see the kind of growth that we saw in much of the 20th century going forward).
 
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Increasing output in a finite resource while ignoring renewable sources is an easy victory - but a victory only in the eyes of idiots who missed the "finite" part of "finite resources". But it does what it's exactly intended to do - it makes the short-sighted happy. It's all about the short term with this insane clown posse

The fact that it's a finite resource is one of the reasons a booming petro-state such as North Dakota has a growing multi-billion dollar sovereign wealth fund salted away for the public from its petroleum revenues. But it's a place that also has a state owned bank (alone out of 50) and an incarceration rate closer to Norway than America's average, so hardly surprising they'd set such a thing up.

I wouldn't say renewables are being ignored, the US has invested over $385 billion dollars into green tech over the last decade. It's just far more difficult to actually implement solar and wind than proponents (and I'm actually one) tend to let on, especially from and on a global perspective/scale. The fossil fuel lobbying and disinformation campaign obviously doesn't help either though.
 
That can and does vary pretty drastically by region and state with a lot of socioeconomic and quality of education standards coming into play. I don't personally put a lot of stock into something such as IQ as I find it to be an incredibly narrow metric of what constitutes 'intelligence', but regions such as New England and North Midwest (where I'm from) are as competitive as any around the globe. The "Dumb American" stereotype is a bit of an overplayed hand at this point.

The biggest reason Asians tend to naturally excel in subjects such as mathematics is as much due to the structure of their alphabets. It's intelligence but far more in crystallized rather than fluid sense. If we're talking about discoveries, development and achievements in historical terms that necessitate abstract thought then Asians absolutely haven't and don't dominate mathematics. And Asian-Americans as much American as anyone else as it is, it's that confluence and diversified pool of genetics and ideas that the country draws so much strength from.

FTR: There's damn few Asians in North Dakota, bruh.

maxresdefault.jpg

This is very interesting, but I can't help but wonder if its a distortion of the statistics. I have no opinion regarding whether Asian's or White's have higher IQs (as you noted, it is not a particularly useful measure of actual intelligence), but it is very surprising to to see the American Midwest have statistically significant higher IQs than other states (that cannot be explained by natural variation in the data).

I would be curious as to how that average was calculated relative to the number of residents in that state who actually took an IQ test. Unless it is mandatory for all students to take an IQ test, I cannot imagine that sufficient residents in North Dakota took an IQ test that makes up a representative sample. The general expectation is that as more of the population takes the test, the closer they will be to the mean of 100.
 
If you want to honestly evaluate something, you choose the metrics beforehand. "What would tell us how we're doing? What do those metrics say?" If someone is just doing cheap propaganda rather than analysis, what they ask is, "what are metrics that appear to tell the story I want to tell?"

Is "U.S. crude output compared to that of Saudi Arabia and Russia" a metric that people follow closely and use to determine success or something grabbed because someone thinks it tells a story?

FTR, I think the U.S. economy is doing fine right now. I'm a long-term growth pessimist, though (not just the U.S.--I think in general, the low-hanging fruit has been picked, and we shouldn't expect to see the kind of growth that we saw in much of the 20th century going forward).

It doesn't actually get much play aside from the outlets who specifically cover the energy sector itself. Most people don't read Oil Price or Financial Times and considering the sources of information are the likes of the IEA and US Dept of Energy it's all rather straightforward. I'd say there's very little lost in becoming energy independent and the most competitive manufacturing nation on the globe while retaining a global edge in scientific research and technological innovation.

The US shale revolution is probably best paraphrased by political intelligence consultant Gary K. Busch:

"There were lessons learned in the production of fracked oil and gas in the United States with OPEC’s desire to drive the US industry to its knees and start an oil pricing war to make fracking uncompetitive. Instead of folding up their hands, US producers innovated new processes and introduced new technologies which drove down operating costs. Now, OPEC cannot compete and is fighting a losing battle to drive out US shale. America will be self-sufficient in energy by late 2019.

There are numerous new techniques being applied including smart drill-bits with computer chips that can seek out cracks in the rock and adjust the drilling accordingly, fully degradable fracture balls and seats to isolate zones during well stimulation that eliminates previous limitations on lateral lengths and maximizes estimated ultimate recovery while reducing risks and costs as well as expandable tubulars, more cost-effective rotary steerable systems, and intelligent drill pipe for high-rate bottomhole data telemetry drilling to depths no longer limited by initial hole diameter.”


Blame the Saudis. I find that all kind of awe inspiring in a purely technological sense, this country is fucking amazing at times.

In any case, Trump has very little to do with any of this and it's not a politically motivated thread. I mentioned in the OP that the US made the largest inflation-adjusted investment into R&D in its history! Yea, that's the same bill Trump threatened to 'veto' and the White House proposal itself called for historic year-on-year CUTS. It would've been a total disaster and Congress actually came together for once to correct him. Checks N Balances.
 
It doesn't actually get much play aside from the outlets who specifically cover the energy sector itself.

That's my point, though. There are standard metrics that you look at to judge the health of the economy. GDP growth is the most obvious metric. We're doing fine, but not exceptionally well:

fredgraph.png


Unemployment is looking very good. Wage growth has been weaker than you'd expect, but at least it's moving in the right direction. Etc.

In any case, Trump has very little to do with any of this and it's not a politically motivated thread. I mentioned in the OP that the US made the largest inflation-adjusted investment into R&D in its history! Yea, that's the same bill Trump threatened to 'veto' and the White House proposal itself called for historic year-on-year CUTS. It would've been a total disaster and Congress actually came together for once to correct him. Checks N Balances.

Whatever the motivation, the approach isn't right. Like I said, the conclusion that we're doing well is fine. Just sets off my alarm to see a broad point made with narrow data, and the kind of one-off analysis.
 
The fact that it's a finite resource is one of the reasons a booming petro-state such as North Dakota has a growing multi-billion dollar sovereign wealth fund salted away for the public from its petroleum revenues. But it's a place that also has a state owned bank (alone out of 50) and an incarceration rate closer to Norway than America's average, so hardly surprising they'd set such a thing up.

I wouldn't say renewables are being ignored, the US has invested over $385 billion dollars into green tech over the last decade. It's just far more difficult to actually implement solar and wind than proponents (and I'm actually one) tend to let on, especially from and on a global perspective/scale. The fossil fuel lobbying and disinformation campaign obviously doesn't help either though.

Everything you say stands, I agree, my sole point is that the transition is inevitable, and that the bill for developing these technologies is simply being pushed to the next generations... If it's not a top priority now, it will have to be later... And that's what this clown is banking on - a presidency marked as positive due to short-term victories, with long-term negative consequences for which he will take zero responsibility for, in a moment of irony which will be lost only on those not observing the fact that everything bad happening has been blamed on the prior administration... But now I'm venturing into a broader issue which I've no energy or, frankly, interest in delving into, it's depressing
 
I just love how rustled the media still is about Trump calling them out on their shit. I literally just heard a guy on MSNBC say it is an attack on our constitution and culture.
 
This is very interesting, but I can't help but wonder if its a distortion of the statistics. I have no opinion regarding whether Asian's or White's have higher IQs (as you noted, it is not a particularly useful measure of actual intelligence), but it is very surprising to to see the American Midwest have statistically significant higher IQs than other states (that cannot be explained by natural variation in the data).

I would be curious as to how that average was calculated relative to the number of residents in that state who actually took an IQ test. Unless it is mandatory for all students to take an IQ test, I cannot imagine that sufficient residents in North Dakota took an IQ test that makes up a representative sample. The general expectation is that as more of the population takes the test, the closer they will be to the mean of 100.

I honestly don't know, but as shown in the same thread North Dakota has a hell of a lot going for it and a lot of its legislation is very left-wing and progressive in practice (public wealth fund, state-owned bank, no death penalty, drastic prison reform based on the Norwegian model, on it goes) which is ironic as it's considered to be a 'red state'. It was just recently ranked #1 for quality of life in the country by the 2018 US News report.

For whatever it might be worth, people in NoDak (as well as South Dakota and Minnesota to a lesser extent) are majority German and Norwegian in a molecular genetic sense, meaning a clustering of markers from their genomes does/would closely correspond to the sub-populations in those countries - including mine - particularly because it's remained so relatively isolated over the years.
 
That's my point, though. There are standard metrics that you look at to judge the health of the economy. GDP growth is the most obvious metric. We're doing fine, but not exceptionally well:

fredgraph.png

Unemployment is looking very good. Wage growth has been weaker than you'd expect, but at least it's moving in the right direction. Etc.

Whatever the motivation, the approach isn't right. Like I said, the conclusion that we're doing well is fine. Just sets off my alarm to see a broad point made with narrow data, and the kind of one-off analysis.

This is plenty fair enough. In all honesty, it wasn't intended to be some kind of comprehensive analysis so much as a mildly contrarian conversation starter and change of course from the vitriolic sociopolitical material that dominates this forum on a daily basis although it could certainly be far more detailed on the R&D front as its actually a personal area. The ramifications of the US shale boom and manufacturing reshoring are still a couple years off from revealing the full extent of their potential benefits.
 
The "Dumb American" stereotype is a bit of an overplayed hand at this point.

No it is not. Come visit me in Oklahoma and I will show you the proof. 'Red necks' in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. 'Hillbillies' in West Virginia. California, God bless them, I don't even know what to call them...

Let's go back to the American Civil War days. The Confederacy had the better and smarter officers. Not really sure why. Both sides had West Point graduates, and the South was winning that war for the first 3 years. Both sides made mistakes. The North could have won the war in the first year. In the end, the industrial North beat the agricultural South. The South ran out of men to fight in the war. But the South did have the smarter officers. Today I think it would be a different story. Definitely too many idiots in the South today. The water? Inbreeding? I'm not sure...
 
US domestic oil extraction was steadily increasing before Trump became president. The Saudis tried to destroy this (fracking) by slashing the price per barrel. They figured they could ride it , thinking shale oil producers would fold before them since the extraction costs for fracking is higher than traditional oil extraction. But instead Saudi started to hurt, so they started raising prices.

Some manufacturing was also moving back stateside , before Trump became president.

What we are seeing now is a continuation of the trend.
 
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