Leandro Lo at AOJ

[Kenny from MD]

I see Rafa and Lo ending on ad or ref decision for Lo, and spending the majority of it in DLR and 50/50. Rafa does not open up enough to just be passed and in this instance, I think the availability of grips work in his favor.

Lo's entire Worlds '17 run plus his most recent match with Buchecha were practically stalemates where he either squeaked by on questionable calls or lost by them, usually do to one athlete or another playing the mat boundaries.

Literally Lo is so often stalemated that people accuse now frequently accuse him of "doing just enough" or outright stalling. Granted, those people are morons...

 

[Uchi Mata]

I see Rafa and Lo ending on ad or ref decision for Lo, and spending the majority of it in DLR and 50/50. Rafa does not open up enough to just be passed and in this instance, I think the availability of grips work in his favor.

Lo's entire Worlds '17 run plus his most recent match with Buchecha were practically stalemates where he either squeaked by on questionable calls or lost by them, usually do to one athlete or another playing the mat boundaries.

Literally Lo is so often stalemated that people accuse now frequently accuse him of "doing just enough" or outright stalling. Granted, those people are morons...

You don't think Lo could pass Rafa's DLR? This is a guy who passed a prime Michael Langhi in his weight class, and that was years ago (he's gotten better since then). Who has he ever faced that he hasn't passed their guard, other than Buchecha? Lucas Lepri a bunch of times, Otavio Sousa, Calasans, Keenan, Romulo, the man is amazing. Though he did fail to pass Meregali at Mundials this year, so maybe he is slowing down a bit. I don't know.

 

[kenetics]

The Mendes brothers posted rolls with Panza while he was visibly exhausted and they where fresh (likely from beating the crap out of their competition team) and Panza got annoyed and posted an video of an old fight where Cobrinha was abusing Rafa.

Where the video ?

 

[dimmyfinster]

Where the video ?

On the old site, no longer publicly available.

There's also a roll with Rafa and Demente (as well as Gui). I think Rafa gets the sweep in that roll, but you can really see the effect of weight classes in that roll. Gui over and over gets the omoplata position but is never able to finish either a sweep or sub- the size is just to much.

In a Lo vs Rafa match, I don't think Rafa takes down Lo, and don't think Rafa scores. It might be a tie.


There's also the transitive effect and Lo just runs through the AOJ DLR guards like they are nothing, toying with everybody in that video. Sure the competition guys at AOJ aren't Rafa but they are good and IMO Lo twas not going anywhere near 100%.

 

[JagRoss]

You don't think Lo could pass Rafa's DLR? This is a guy who passed a prime Michael Langhi in his weight class, and that was years ago (he's gotten better since then). Who has he ever faced that he hasn't passed their guard, other than Buchecha? Lucas Lepri a bunch of times, Otavio Sousa, Calasans, Keenan, Romulo, the man is amazing. Though he did fail to pass Meregali at Mundials this year, so maybe he is slowing down a bit. I don't know.

He almost passed Meregali though—that knee slice was pretty deep.
He lost that match because he tried to sweep Meregali at the edge of the mat, and they got reset standing.
If he'd waited until they got reset in the middle...

 

[mataleaos]

I don't think this is accurate at all. Rodolfo beat Rafa by a refs decision in no gi.... far from wrecking him. Lo would absolutely not wreck either Mendes brother. Don't get me wrong size is important but I think it's ridiculous to say anyone on the planet is wrecking a Mendes bro.

I actually thought Rafa shou;d've gotten that decision. But on the overall point I think no-gi is a slightly different animal. Especially when it comes to guard play. If you have a good guard in no-gi and your main goal is to not get passed I might argue that's the hardest thing to do in jiu-jitsu. Guys like Rafa or the Miyaos without the gi can basically play their shell/shield style RDLR and DLR and it's going to be impossible to pass them unless they over-commit on a sweep. There just aren't enough grips. I've long argued that the best top game against Joao Miyao without the gi was just to go for a rolling kimura or front headlock. And when Justin Rader went against him he did just that and came the closest to passing him Miyao that I've seen in no-gi. Rafa came close with stack passing but no one else has come close.

 

[mataleaos]

I disagree whole heartedly that any elite huge guy not named Roger wrecks Rafa Mendes in a gi. Beats? Maybe, yeah. Submits? Sure, it could potentially happen (although very, very unlikely in 10 minutes). Wreck? No.

His game is about framing and control and dictating where the match takes place. To get so far ahead of him that you would wreck him is so unlikely. Even if you manage to get a step ahead, what is the likelihood you continue widening the gap versus Rafa recomposing himself? How many times have you seen someone even cleanly score on him (meaning not see sawing in 50/50) or giving any indication that there is an aspect to take advantage of?

I would bet my bottom dollar that even if Buchecha or Lo managed to get through his guard, which I doubt, they'd be having fits and unable to move freely for 3/4 of the match.

Yes! I really wish this video were still online because it shows a lot from Rafa we haven't seen. We don't ever seen him in bad position because he never gets there. But he had a video of ADCC sparring for 2013 where he was starting in bottom mount, bottom half (flattened with head and arm control), and back control. I have never seen someone explode and relentlessly fight to get back to guard or top position.

True, but they still do fine and roll with Keenan, Galvao and some of the other big guys from ATOS.

To be fair, Keenan also said there were some rolls between he and Rafa that would never be posted. I think Lo would beat Rafa in the gi, but I don't think it would be a blowout. Without the gi I could see it being more like the Rodolfo vs Rafa match. There's not a ton of Lo nogi footage I;ve seen, but I did seem him sweep and pass Calasans with a knee slice.

 

[mataleaos]

Lo's passing is very different in concept from the Mendes way. He's willing to take risks they never would in terms of basically throwing himself at people and relying on his length and active posting to allow him to ride the sweep into a pass. That's giving up control of the situation in a way Rafa nor Gui ever would. Their whole jiu jitsu is based on maintaining as much control as possible all the time.

A good example of this would be the match Lo had with Sean Roberts back in the day. Lo won something like 42-0, but he didn't finish him. He just kept passing his guard and getting dominant positions, but his sub attempts were hurried. You'd never in a million years see Rafa win a serious match by that much. He'd win by submission when he was up 7-0 from the pass and back take. Because when a Mendes gets position on you he controls you and either finishes or ends the time in that same dominant position. Lo's BJJ is a lot more exciting and you can't say that it's worse, but it may not be as replicable for people without his physical qualities whereas I think most people can do most of what the brothers do just by working on the technique and underlying strategy they preach.

Lo also doesn't do a ton of grip fighting right? isn't he content with just either slicing through or trying to go around anyways? The Mendes brothers seem to be pretty diligent grip breakers. Rafa is passing with a style now where he ideally doesn't even let the person grip him. I've seen Gui pass through some solid grips before, but they both like the break them more than Lo does? Or is this wrong?

 

[Uchi Mata]

Lo also doesn't do a ton of grip fighting right? isn't he content with just either slicing through or trying to go around anyways? The Mendes brothers seem to be pretty diligent grip breakers. Rafa is passing with a style now where he ideally doesn't even let the person grip him. I've seen Gui pass through some solid grips before, but they both like the break them more than Lo does? Or is this wrong?

Lo grip fights, but he's also willing to let you have a grip if he doesn't think it'll slow down his passing. His tendency is to kill your leg activity, get a cross collar grip, and start throwing himself into knee slices. He's the best in the world at neutralizing DLR IMO, which is part of the reason I think he'd do well against Rafa.

 

[trustdoesntrust]

I see Rafa and Lo ending on ad or ref decision for Lo, and spending the majority of it in DLR and 50/50. Rafa does not open up enough to just be passed and in this instance, I think the availability of grips work in his favor.

Lo's entire Worlds '17 run plus his most recent match with Buchecha were practically stalemates where he either squeaked by on questionable calls or lost by them, usually do to one athlete or another playing the mat boundaries.

Literally Lo is so often stalemated that people accuse now frequently accuse him of "doing just enough" or outright stalling. Granted, those people are morons...

Stalling is not accurate, but "doing just enough" may literally be his strategy. Lo has mastered how to engage at a safe distance that ensures a slow match where he cannot be seriously threatened, and where one scoring move will win. It seems like one of his favored tactics is to lull/frustrate the opponent into slowing down then counter striking with a lightning fast TD attempt or pass. On the ground, he seems to have consolidated his attacks to high-percentage but low-ceiling sweeps (which he aggressively jumps on), and then wide passing that keeps him out of deep guard entanglements. Another favorite tactic when passing seems to be to bait the opponent to come up for a single leg then separating and pulling guard himself.

 

[dimmyfinster]

Yes! I really wish this video were still online because it shows a lot from Rafa we haven't seen. We don't ever seen him in bad position because he never gets there. But he had a video of ADCC sparring for 2013 where he was starting in bottom mount, bottom half (flattened with head and arm control), and back control. I have never seen someone explode and relentlessly fight to get back to guard or top position.



To be fair, Keenan also said there were some rolls between he and Rafa that would never be posted. I think Lo would beat Rafa in the gi, but I don't think it would be a blowout. Without the gi I could see it being more like the Rodolfo vs Rafa match. There's not a ton of Lo nogi footage I;ve seen, but I did seem him sweep and pass Calasans with a knee slice.

That video had Gu starting in half guard and seeing Rafa do a lockdown (!). NIck starting from side. Another guy from mount. Another guy (Elvis?) starting from back. ALl their current coaches except for the guy from mount. Those guys were purple belts I think back then. It was impressive but I don't know he could replicate it against Lo.


Also, in that video Gui gets Rafa in armlock position as time runs out. So Rafa is not indestructible.

 

[bjjaz]

That video had Gu starting in half guard and seeing Rafa do a lockdown (!). NIck starting from side. Another guy from mount. Another guy (Elvis?) starting from back. ALl their current coaches except for the guy from mount. Those guys were purple belts I think back then. It was impressive but I don't know he could replicate it against Lo.


Also, in that video Gui gets Rafa in armlock position as time runs out. So Rafa is not indestructible.

My main point is that of course he isn't indestructible, I mean Rafa only tapped me like 7 times in 4 minutes, where he felt like he was drilling on me.....haha

But my actual point was that no matter what happens, I can't see Rafa get steamrolled by anyone. He is an elite level grappler.

 

[DPS831]

You don't think Lo could pass Rafa's DLR? This is a guy who passed a prime Michael Langhi in his weight class, and that was years ago (he's gotten better since then). Who has he ever faced that he hasn't passed their guard, other than Buchecha? Lucas Lepri a bunch of times, Otavio Sousa, Calasans, Keenan, Romulo, the man is amazing. Though he did fail to pass Meregali at Mundials this year, so maybe he is slowing down a bit. I don't know.

As someone who has watched an embarrassingly high number of Lo matches I'm fairly certain he has never passed Lepri's guard (or even came close), let alone passed it a "bunch of times." As far as I recall, their 3-4 matches always ended with Lo winning by an advantage or 2 points (sweep).

 

[dsktje]

I heard the Mendes bros used to be kind of sneaky about taping rolls.
(as a reaction to people asking why they aren't posting any new blackbelt sparring videos)

 

[Uchi Mata]

As someone who has watched an embarrassingly high number of Lo matches I'm fairly certain he has never passed Lepri's guard (or even came close), let alone passed it a "bunch of times." As far as I recall, their 3-4 matches always ended with Lo winning by an advantage or 2 points (sweep).

You can go look at the points scored in the matches on BJJ Heroes. Out of 8 matches, several of them have odd points on the board for Lo and there's only one score in BJJ that gives you an odd number.

 

[Balto]

there's only one score in BJJ that gives you an odd number.

That must be the secret Illuminati score.

All I'm saying is look into it.

 

[Uchi Mata]

That must be the secret Illuminati score.

All I'm saying is look into it.

Don't ever go gull 10th Planet.

 

[DPS831]

Lepri v. Lo -- Pans 2012: Lo wins 2-0
Lepri v. Lo -- World Pro 2012: Lepri wins (points; unspecified)
Lepri v. Lo -- Worlds 2012: Lo wins 2-0
Lepri v. Lo -- IBJJF Pro League 2012: Lo wins 0-0 (by advantage)
Lepri v. Lo -- World Pro 2013 -- Lo wins 0-0 (by advantage)
Lepri v. Lo -- Worlds 2013 -- Lo wins (by advantage)
Lepri v. Lo -- Copa Podio 2016 -- Lo wins 2-2 (by advantage)
Lepri v. Lo -- Copa Podio 2016 -- Lo wins 2-0

Source: https://www.bjjheroes.com/bjj-fighters/lucas-lepri-wiki-bio

Per BJJ Heroes, there are no odds points, nor any indication that Lo has passed Lepri's guard in competition.

 

[randomg1t]

I heard this story about Buchecha visiting there a couple of years ago and he was training with one of the mendes brothers. During the roll he saw someone standing on the side filming the roll sneakily. So he got up and said if you guys are filming this I will not roll friendly anymore - and the filming got stopped.

i think rafa is a jiu jitsu god, but buchecha tears his fucking limbs off if he goes all out.

i like how he just straight up told them he's being nice about it, and it did the job immediately.

In an interview Keenan was asked about a visit to AOJ and he mentioned how his roll with the brothers didn't get put on the site because of how competitive it was.

keenan has also gone on record to state that during an atos training camp for ADCC, rafa was the only competitor to never once get tapped - and that's training with galvao, keenan, jt torres, davi ramos... in like 3 weeks of training twice or three times a day.

 

[EGDM]

You can go look at the points scored in the matches on BJJ Heroes. Out of 8 matches, several of them have odd points on the board for Lo and there's only one score in BJJ that gives you an odd number.

I think you might have looked at the wrong data. From BJJ Heroes, Lepri has only been passed by Joao Gabriel Rocha in the Absolute of the 2017 Pans and by JT Torres in the 2010 Brasileiros. Felipe Pena took his back in 2014, but it was off a scramble and not a pass. As best I can tell, Lo has never passed Lepri's guard (he's come VERY close several times, though).

Excluding those matches:
- In no match with a recorded score did his opponent score three points or any number higher than 4, so no combination of points could include a pass.
- He only has one submission loss (Davi Ramos at ADCC), during which he was not passed.
- I looked up all the losses by unspecified "points" that I could find, and none of them included a pass (I could not easily find his losses to Diego Hertzog (2014) and Gilbert Burns (2009)).

(Holy fuck, Lepri is even better than I thought he was!)

Caveat: It's possible that he was passed in a match he later won by submission, since I didn't look all of them up. I don't think so, though.

https://www.bjjheroes.com/bjj-fighters/lucas-lepri-wiki-bio