Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    If Antonoe can drift up just a little bit more to 2/1 then I can basically break even on the day. That place photo hurts more by the minute, though.
     
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  2. Jae Gibbz

    Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    hahaha hopefully we win this last race to prove it untrue!
     
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  3. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Meh. Whatever.
     
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  4. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Frustrating finish to the day. Still only down a little less than 6u for the day, so not a disaster by any means. I've wasted a lot more than than that on a much less entertaining couple hours, that's for sure!

    Thanks again @Sharkey for all the knowledge and picks. We'll get em next time.
     
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  5. kenfloshogun

    kenfloshogun Orange Belt

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    Gun Runner is phenomenal. Tried to beat him with Neolithic but wayyy too good. So impressive.
     
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  6. Mga223

    Mga223 Steel Belt

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    @Sharkey so bowman dropped the whip on Saturday while riding winx.

    Luckily she's a freak of a horse and just want for it. Won pretty easy.
     
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  7. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Yeah, I watched that race the day it happened, M. She really had no business winning that race either with the way the leader got out there loose on the lead and then never stopped running. The turn of foot Winx displayed late to run him down was something else. That's two races in a row where she had to overcome things that even really good horse rarely do. But she's just not merely "really good" though.
     
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  8. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    The last big race of the year for this 3 year-old crop goes off this weekend in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby.

    The field;

    1 - Timeline - 5/1
    2 - Outplay - 12/1
    3 - Watch Me Whip - 20/1
    4 - West Coast - 8/5
    5 - Irap - 3/1
    6 - Talk Logistics - 20/1
    7 - Game Over - 15/1
    8 - Irish War Cry - 9/2
    9 - Term of Art - 20/1
    10 - Guiseppe the Great - 20/1


    Interesting field that is showing up in a race that looks to have a ton of early speed with Timeline, Outplay, Irish War Cry, and maybe even one or two others like West Coast who was on the lead in the Travers. I'm not sure they can win, but both Game Over and Guiseppe the Great look interesting as price plays that could spice up the exotics.
     
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  9. minowasmullet

    minowasmullet Orange Belt

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    Whats the next race for Arrogate? Or any news on the horse
     
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  10. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I'd assume he's training up to the BC Classic in early November since he's not listed as a probable or even possible for the Awesome Again Stakes next weekend.
     
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  11. minowasmullet

    minowasmullet Orange Belt

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    Thanks mate
     
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  12. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Race 4;

    #4 Toby Girl (3/1) +5.5
    #7 Hidden Mystery (5/2) +3.0
    #9 Rosie P (6/1) +1.0
    #2 Checkbouncin Billy (8/1) +0.6
    #1 Filibustin (12/1) +0.4
    -----
    #3 Heatherly (20/1) -0.1
    #8 Fairybrook (20/1) -1.4
    #5 Miss Avalon (15/1) -2.3
    #6 Silver Threads (4/1) -2.9
    #10 Letthemooseloose (15/1) -4.0



    Race 5;

    #10 Hit It Once More (8/1) +6.2
    #8 Thomas Knight (15/1) +3.7
    #12 Prince of Hempt (10/1) +1.9
    #6 Jerandson (7/2) +1.2
    #1 Monaco (6/1) +1.0
    #5 J.J.'s Candy (12/1) +1.0
    #9 Burntwood (20/1) +0.7
    -----
    #11 Haul Anchor (5/2) -0.7
    #4 Tale of Mist (8/1) -1.3
    #3 Confederate (15/1) -1.8
    #2 People's Champ (20/1) -2.8
    #7 Unto Thou (20/1) -9.5


    Race 6;

    #3 Fast Friar (3/1) +8.5
    #1 Top Brass (6/1) +3.9
    #9 Flashy Kyem (6/1) +3.4
    #6 Sonoma Crush (20/1) +1.5
    #12 Basha (6/1) +0.9
    #2 Thurman Merman (20/1) +0.3
    -----
    #11 Tairneach (15/1) -0.3
    #4 Storming My Way (8/1) -0.6
    #7 Rolin With Olin (8/1) -1.0
    #10 Nfusion (8/1) -3.5
    #8 Going Abroad (15/1) -4.1
    #5 It's All Relevant (15/1) -8.7


    Race 7;

    #6 Tasit (4/1) +7.7
    #9 Bern James Bern (8/1) +5.3
    #2 Uncle Dave (15/1) +3.0
    #10 Late Breaking News (10/1) +2.4
    #5 Edge of Reality (6/1) +2.0
    #3 Red Razzo (20/1) +0.3
    #8 Threeohtwocassie (3/1) +0.1
    -----
    #4 Firsthand Report (6/1) -0.6
    #11 Chateau de Vizille (10/1) -3.2
    #1 Trilogy (15/1) -4.1
    #7 Tactical Plan (20/1) -5.3
    #12 Cape Cod Tide (30/1) -7.5


    Race 8;

    #4 Matt King Coal (3/1) +4.2
    #9 Just Call Kenny (9/2) +3.7
    #2 Donegal Moon (4/1) +2.7
    #1 Discreet Lover (10/1) +1.5
    #8 Page McKenney (6/1) +0.4
    -----
    #6 Mr Jordan (4/1) -0.2
    #3 Grasshoppin (15/1) -3.2
    #7 Sea Raven (20/1) -4.3
    #5 Ike Walker (12/1) -5.0


    Race 9;

    #1A Coal Front (2/1 joint) +5.5
    #5 American Pastime (7/2) +4.7
    #1 Petrov (2/1 joint) +3.6
    #4 Running Mate (15/1) +1.6
    #2 Ann Arbor Eddie (10/1) +0.8
    -----
    #7 Excitations (5/2) -0.7
    #6 Sonic Mule (12/1) -2.3
    #3 Action Everyday (15/1) -3.2
    #9 Glory Stars (15/1) -3.3
    #8 Aquamarine (20/1) -6.6


    Race 10;

    #9 Abel Tasman (8/5) +5.6
    #10 Salty (5/1) +5.0
    #5 It Tiz Well (4/1) +3.8
    #2 Lockdown (8/1) +3.5
    #3 Actress (5/1) +2.0
    #6 Mopotism (20/1) +0.9
    -----
    #1X Run and Go (12/1 joint) -1.3
    #1 Thirstforthecup (12/1 joint) -1.7
    #4 Proud and Fearless (20/1) -2.4
    #8 Teresa Z (12/1) -3.4
    #7 Sine Wave (20/1) -5.1
    #1A Stay Fond (12/1 joint) -6.7


    Race 11;

    #4 West Coast (8/5) +7.5
    #5 Irap (3/1) +6.5
    #1 Timeline (5/1) +1.7
    #10 Guiseppe the Great (20/1) +1.2
    #7 Game Over (15/1) +0.6
    -----
    #2 Outplay (12/1) -0.5
    #8 Irish War Cry (9/2) -0.8
    #6 Talk Logistics (20/1) -0.8
    #3 Watch Me Whip (20/1) -6.5
    #9 Term of Art (20/1) -8.9


    Race 12;

    #12 Tazkeya (12/1) +7.5
    #1 Extrasexyexotkminx (5/1) +3.4
    #8 Untouchable U (8/1) +3.1
    #10 Indian Paint (12/1) +3.1
    #5 Tiz Rude (4/1) +2.0
    #4 Felini (3/1) +1.8
    #7 Expressly (10/1) +0.1
    -----
    #3 Whogoosedthemoose (8/1) -0.5
    #9 Bay Rum (15/1) -0.8
    #6 Legend of Lorelei (15/1) -2.5
    #11 Garden Games (20/1) -7.6
    #2 Behrnik's Bank (12/1) -9.1


    Race 13;

    #9 Irish Colonel (8/1) +5.9
    #8 Love That Jazz (12/1) +5.6
    #2 Curious Cal (3/1) +5.0
    #11 Brother Chub (6/1) +3.8
    #4 Pop Keenan (4/1) +3.6
    #1 Mr Brix (12/1) +0.4
    #12 I Am the Man (15/1) +0.2
    -----
    #6 Cowboy Mz (8/1) -3.3
    #5 Ebo Strong (8/1) -3.7
    #7 Drosselmagic (20/1) -3.8
    #3 Staynsidethecircle (20/1) -6.7
    #10 Court Note (20/1) -7.6
     
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  13. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Don't ask. Needless to say I'll be going full degenerate with this Parx card on Saturday.

    But seriously, I'm been working on some formula stuff for the last month or two by throwing a bunch of numbers together in trying to find good bets in this game. Started back with the Arlington Million race and it worked out good there, and I then used it as a bit of a guideline since then (I used a simpler version during the Travers day card and put me on some horses there that I may not have been on. Unfortunately I ignored it for the Travers itself when West Coast ranked really high on these numbers going into the race). But I've been expanded on it since, so I'm going to try a day just using these numbers and see how it works out. I threw everything I could think of into the mix; form, class, speed ratings, quirin pace ratings to look at race shape, distance, track, etc., as well as a bunch of different angles. I threw it all together and came up with an average number per race. The plus and minuses for each horse are measured against that average. I'm just trying to find value with things that I think have value in handicapping to one extent or another, and while at the same time eliminating any bias I may have for or against a horse. I used it last weekend completely for some races at Woodbine and it ended up being really good to me, so I'm going to try to make a day of it for Saturday's card at Parx. Maybe I can find some good bets in there. Or maybe it's going straight into the dumpster after the races on Saturday. We'll see. But I'm going to give it a try.
     
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  14. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    There's probably going to be some scratches, so I won't post any plays yet, but some of my ideas based on this stuff;


    Race 4 - I'll probably just make a win bet on Toby Girl since she has a clear enough edge and isn't the favourite. Little value in the race beyond that based on these numbers.

    Race 5 - Hit It Once More and Thomas Knight are very playable and I will do so if they don't scratch. May play both to win since they should be good odds, and then maybe box them.

    Race 6 - Fast Friar looks like a clear win bet to me, and then use over Top Brass and Flashy Kyem in exactas. I'll have to find some way to play Sonoma Crush too considering he's 20/1 on the morning line and ranks 4th.

    Race 7 - Tasit, Bern James Bern, and Uncle Dave all have value on the win side, so not sure how I'll go there. I'll use all three in exactas as well.

    Race 8 - Just Call Kenny will probably be my win bet as he's not that far behind Matt King Coal (who will be bet hard) on these numbers. Discreet Lover is a possiblility to fill the 2nd slot in the exacta.

    Race 9 - American Pastime is likely to get my win bet since the coupled entry should get bet way down from their 2/1 morning line. Running Mate offers the value as the longest to finish well.

    Race 10 - Meh. Salty is the best value on the win end I guess.

    Race 11 - At 20/1 I'll probably try to get Guiseppe the Great to show, and then use him and Game Over underneath the two logical horses in exactas.

    Race 12 - Tazkeya is 12/1 on the morning line and way ahead of anybody else in the race. Gotta play her to win. The three right below her are all lumped together, so I could put those three underneath Tazkeya in exactas as well.

    Race 13 - Irish Colonel and Love That Jazz both look like they offer a lot of value on the win end based on these numbers. I could play them both to win even if they go off at their morning line odds. Nothing worth playing beyond those two.
     
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  15. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Sharkey, how did you make out on Saturday? Looks like you cashed a few tickets and had a lot of close calls. I wanted to bet some of the races but I was busy all day and just didn't have the time.
     
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  16. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Not too good, T. I only played the four stakes races on the card because I ended up sleeping in some that morning, but I didn't hit anything except on Guiseppe the Great in the main race. Had some close calls, though. I just got beat at the wire in races 8 & 9, and was only a few strides away from cashing an exacta in the PA Derby if Guiseppe would have got up there and passed Irap. Overall I only got a return on half of my investment, though, so it was pretty tough.
     
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  17. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Ahh damn, that's frustrating Shark. Seems like your numbers were solid at least, being that your horses were right there in the mix.
     
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  18. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    There's a bunch of Breeders Cup prep races going on today at both Belmont and Santa Anita, so I figured I'd crunch some numbers and make some plays for today;


    G1 Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont - I landed on the #6 Celtic Chaos (20/1 morning line) to win for 0.5 u and to place for 1.5u. My numbers have him ranked 4th of 7 (+0.8) and he just may get some pace to run into today with the presence of Takaful, Mr Crow, El Deal, etc. Has the running style and the top late pace figures in the race should the race open up for a late runner. He's also 3 for 5 over the Belmont track during his career so far as well.

    G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont - Exacta box for 0.5u (3u total) with the #1 Money Multiplier (7/2), #4 Sadler's Joy (4/1), and #5 Beach Patrol (5/1). My numbers have them as the 3 best horses in the race by a pretty significant margin and with very little between them. So I'll just box em up. With the hard trying Beach Patrol in this race there shouldn't be yet another easy lead for the favourite, Oscar Performance, who should have a challenger the whole way this time.

    G1 Awesome Again Stakes - The #5 Breaking Lucky (5/1) to win for 1u and to place for 2u. I have him as the top horse in the race just over both Cupid and Mubtaahij on my numbers. He's adaptable enough in his running style where he can sit back if the pace gets a little hot up front, although not too far back if this is a typical Santa Anita track today. Or he can sit on/near the lead if it isn't. He's also getting a lot of class relief this race after having gone against the likes of Gun Runner and Arrogate a bunch of times now.
     
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  19. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    I'm in! Thanks for sharing and best of luck today, Sharkey.
     
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  20. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Shit, I wished I would have looked at the scratches this morning for some of the races I'm not playing. May have put a play in on this #7 Mai Ty One On in race 6 at Belmont if I did look those up. I ended up ranking him 2nd clearly behind the morning line favourite, but well ahead of any of the others. Now the favourite has scratched out and this #7 horse is currently sitting at 7/1.
     
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