Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

Hey, look on the bright side, T. She finished better than the 6/5 favourite and the 4/1 2nd choice so it wasn't all bad. Ugh. But a performance like that from a 35/1 shot is pretty easy to stomach in the end. We also had the shape of the race pretty figured out, so we had the right idea but were just on the wrong horse.

Yep, very true. No complaints here.

 

[t6p]

@t6p

TDN still hasn't put up Sonneteer's thorograph sheet on their site, so I'm going to have to make an estimate that it looks like;

Sonneteer: 82.5, 91, 92.5 (109) * ?, 5 1/4, 3 1/4 (?, T, T) * 4th last race * 24.4 feet * 5/2

I wouldn't know what his race from 3 back would have been given, but I'm 99.9% sure that I'm right there in the ballpark with his last two races and that each of them constituted a new top for him since we know what horses like Untrapped, Malagacy, Lookin At Lee, Classic Empire, etc. got in those races. Every other figure maker has him as a horse that has just gotten good over the last couple of races, so I feel good about giving him that T, T pattern and thus having him check in a total of 7 categories. The two race pattern is what we're mainly looking at anyways when it comes to the Derby.

Thank you sir. Now I just need to figure out exactly how I want to play the race.

 

[mkess101]

Ever So Clever actually ran earlier today in the Kentucky Oaks and she didn't perform well. But not to worry, today was just a warm up for the main event where we'll all (hopefully) cash some tickets. Good luck with your plays.

EDIT: If any of those exactas or tris especially come through you're going to be looking at some really nice payouts

Wow didn't even catch that. Shows I've basically gotten all my info from this thread LOL. Giant field in the Derby and didn't even track all the horses.

Sorry it was a miss on the Oaks. A big win in the Derby and you won't care!

 

[mkess101]

Cheers Mike.

Your question is a tough one and I think the ladies in your family actually picked a couple of decent ones beyond the original four that we're playing. As for some other longer priced horses, State of Honor is a horse that I keep going back and forth on, and I can see him doing okay under the right pace circumstances. Can't see him winning this race, but he's been a consistent hard trying type who's going to give his all regardless. If there's a pace that's on the soft side up front I could see him sticking around to grab a piece at the end at huge odds. If the track comes up wet again like it did today then Gormley has that impressive race he ran in the slop earlier in the year, which has been his best race to date so far. Maybe he could duplicate that to some extent tomorrow. I talked up Irap a little bit a few pages back in comparison to one of the favourites, so maybe he can be considered at big odds. He's got that big new top angle going against him and that's one of the worst ones there are. But a few of those who came into the Derby off a big new top have finished 3rd or 4th, and he has looked quite good in his training this week. He's not without at least a chance. I guess one of those three would be who I'd recommend as a longshot possibility.

Thanks Sharkey!

I think I'm gonna wait until later today and see what the track looks like. If its sloppy I'll make a play on Gormley. If it's dry will probably play Irap.

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

I've never actually bet horse races before but I see a lot of good info on here, thanks @Sharkey ! I'm thinking of tailing a few bets ITT, however since I'm a horse betting noob, I don't see any option on 5dimes for these Exactas or trifectas. Am I missing something or is that not a type of bet you can do online?

 

[timmyclax22]

Thanks for the info boys!

Anyone have a site where you can calculate a payout based on odds? As I'm looking it may not be possible?

Don't know shit about this stuff haha.

 

[Monster Meat]

I've never actually bet horse races before but I see a lot of good info on here, thanks @Sharkey ! I'm thinking of tailing a few bets ITT, however since I'm a horse betting noob, I don't see any option on 5dimes for these Exactas or trifectas. Am I missing something or is that not a type of bet you can do online?

Under the menu go
To racebook it will take you to a new window and you can do
Exactas and tris. The sports book area only has the winner props and matchup props.

 

[Monster Meat]

Thanks for the info boys!

Anyone have a site where you can calculate a payout based on odds? As I'm looking it may not be possible?

Don't know shit about this stuff haha.

The odds constantly change based on the money coming in so you won't know an exact amount until the race is over.

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

Under the menu go
To racebook it will take you to a new window and you can do
Exactas and tris. The sports book area only has the winner props and matchup props.

My hero. Thanks man!

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Mainly going with Hence and Sonneteer to win/ top3/ top5. Have some of the same bets on Looking At Lee also

 

[t6p]

Think I'm set:

0.5u Hence to win +2150
0.75u Hence top 2 +680
1u Hence top 3 +425

0.75u Lookin at Lee top 3 +600

0.5u Sonneteer top 3 +825

0.25u Practical Joke to win +3200
0.5u Practical Joke top 3 +645

0.1u Exactas (0.6u total) Hence, Practical Joke/Lookin at Lee, Hence, Sonneteer, Practical Joke
0.05u Trifectas (0.4u total) Hence,Practical Joke/Lookin at Lee,Sonneteer,Practical Joke/Lookin at Lee,Sonneteer,Practical Joke
0.025u Superfectas (0.2u total) Hence, Practical Joke/Lookin at Lee, Hence, Sonneteer, Practical Joke/Lookin at Lee,Sonneteer,Practical Joke/Lookin at Lee,Sonneteer,Practical Joke

Best of luck all. Hope we're all in here celebrating after the race.

 

[Sharkey]

This track is going to be like running on peanut butter by the time the Derby takes place.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

This track is going to be like running on peanut butter by the time the Derby takes place.

I think you mentioned somewhere but idr. Is that good/bad for Hence, Looking At Lee, Sonneteer, Practical Joke?

 

[mkess101]

Track looks sloppy. Maybe not a full on mud pit but looks like it's been raining on and off all day. Putting a little wager in on Gormley to win.

 

[Sharkey]

I think you mentioned somewhere but idr. Is that good/bad for Hence, Looking At Lee, Sonneteer, Practical Joke?

We'll have to see since I'm not sure any of them have ran on a drying out cuppy track like that, but Hence, Lee and Sonneteer have all had some success over an off track. Practical Joke is bred for it, but has never ran on it in a race. If it's cuppy then it's going to be really demanding and I'd definitely prefer to have the long striding and stamina based horses like Hence, Lee, and Sonneteer in that scenario. But who knows, right? We won't really know until they prove it.

 

[iGnP]

Classic Empire $4
Always Dreaming $4
State of Honor $2
Gunnevera $2
Hence $2


All via Beating the Book podcast tip

 

[Sharkey]

The Hence over Lookin At Lee exacta is currently paying about 275/1 in the mutual pools, and the one with Hence over Sonneteer is around 450/1. Captain obvious here, but I wouldn't mind a piece of that.

 

[Sharkey]

Me thinks Seabiscuit's owner is drunk. Just a tad.

 

[mkess101]

BOL everyone. Heading out to dinner with the family. Gonna watch the race in the bar before we eat. Hopefully coming home a winner!

 

[iGnP]

im curious how much those well versed in horse racing wager on a race like this. can anyone provide an estimate?