Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Damn it, I thought we were looking good and Always Dreaming just killed it down the stretch. Oh well, can't win em all. Thanks anyway for the picks Shark.

I hate that State of Honor's jock was putting a choke hold on him as they were entering the backstretch. Shit like that always bugs me. Just let the horse run a little bit if that what he wants to do. Don't force him to do something else. Always Dreaming was a deserving winner, though.
 
Always Dreaming needed between 28.5 and 29 strides to cover the final furlong of his race today. Closer to 29 really. State of Honor needed 29.5 strides to cover his final furlong. Neither of those look to have the length of stride at the end of a 9F race to be much of a factor at the Derby distance of 10F based on a bunch of research I did about a month ago. I'm looking for 28 at the very most and ideally lower. Although it was hard to get an accurate count of Gunnevera due to him being out of the picture for a portion of the final 1/16th my count from his previous furlong and the consistency he showed says he was likely in that same 26.5 to 27 range that he's always been in. He'd be the only one exiting this race that I'd be interested in betting come Derby time.
 
Finally watched the Louisiana Derby. Slow race by slow horses with the winner, Girvin, stumbling around left and right over the final 1/16th desperately trying to find the wire. I'll look at it more once the race makes it's way onto youtube where I can slow it down some, but I already know I'm not going to find anything in that race that has any appeal next month in the Derby.
 
Gunnevera's thorograph sheet is going to be concerning come Derby time;

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/gunne-1.pdf

Went from a 3 1/4 in the Holy Bull to a -2 1/2 in the Fountain of Youth. That was a huge jump. I'm not sure what he got for yesterday's race, but I can only imagine that it was more than a 4 point drop from his previous top thus producing an X race. So basically it looks like he'll be going into the Derby on a P, T, X pattern.
 
On the other hand, Tapwrit's thorograph sheet is looking pretty excellent as of now;

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Tapwr1.pdf

He'll be going into the Blue Grass on a P, P, T pattern with his new top not being a huge jump up (2 1/2 points). As long as he runs a good solid race in the Blue Grass without over exerting himself then he'll probably be who I'll be looking to back in the win spot next month in the Derby. He's checking all of the boxes as of now as far as how he's been developing and as far as his stride length and stride maintenance goes.
 
Rewatching the Florida Derby and Always Dreaming doesn't look all that appealing as a Derby prospect to me. Needed 26.5 strides to cover a furlong as they hit the backstretch and then shortened up pretty significantly to the 28.5/29 range over the final furlong. I'm not sure what the exact pace they were running at in the early going since Gulfstream had a timely malfunction during the race, but it looked to be at least 47 seconds to the half mile mark based on the video. And that wasn't particularly fast considering how fast Gulfstream was playing yesterday. All the early leaders hung around til the end as well. Always Dreaming also looked to have some issues relaxing in the early running as well (which he shows in some of his morning workouts), with his head bobbing up and down with much more urgency than I'd like to see. You can see for yourself starting at about the 0:40 mark of the video. All that's doing is wasting energy. I'm not sure what his thorograph sheet looks like, but I can only assume that he ran a giant new top yesterday, which is a pattern that generally points to a regression the next time a horse runs regardless of what distance his next race takes place at. His lack of stride length maintenance, his wasted motion, and a probable regression off a big effort says I'll be playing against this guy next month in the Derby.

 
It may be tough to find much to like in next week's Wood Memorial considering the list if probables include horses like El Areeb, Irish War Cry, and Mo Town who are entering off a bad X race in their last, and then One Liner who looks like he might be sitting on an X race himself based on the big new top last time out and the fact that he was outworked badly by a maiden a week or two ago and offered no gallop out after the workout was done. But somebody's got to win the damn thing, right? My choice may end up being Cloud Computing by default.
 
Here's that workout of One Liner's that I mentioned above.

http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/o...50-20-at-palm-beach-downs-on-march-18th-2017/

That's just awful. The horse he was working with is a maiden who got beat in a race yesterday, so he's no great shakes as a runner. But One Liner barely challenged him in the workout and basically quit running right after the line despite the rider asking him a couple/few times for more on the gallop out.
 
Pletcher has confirmed Battalion Runner for the Wood, which I would assume means that he's going to wait to run One Liner in the Arkansas Derby the week after. Only guessing, though. I'm also reading that El Areeb is out of the Wood and off the Derby trail altogether due to bone chips.
 
McCraken (5/1), Always Dreaming (6/1), Gunnevera (9/1), Classic Empire (10/1) and Tapwrit (10/1) were the top five choices in Pool 4 of the Derby futures. Unless both McCraken and Tapwrit run a stinker in the Blue Grass I can only imagine that race decides who the Derby favourite will be as they hit the gates.
 
Lookin At Lee is among the list of probables for the Blue Grass, although it looks like the Arkansas Derby is more than likely the target for him. Probably the smarter route since he's going to need at least a 3rd place finish in his final prep to make the Derby and the Arkansas Derby seems like the easier spot with horses like Tapwrit and McCraken pointing towards the Blue Gras. Hopefully he gets the points for the Derby, though, since he fits the profile as the classic underneath longshot horse better than any I've seen so far this year and I'd be interested in using him if he does make the field.

http://www.brisnet.com/content/2017/04/untrapped-lookin-lee-work-company-ahead-arkansas-derby/
 
If Lookin At lee doesn't make the Derby field then maybe the Sunland Derby winner, Hence, looks like the next best option as a clunk up for 3rd or 4th candidate in the Derby. He showed a lot of length to his stride at the end of the Sunland Derby (26 strides over the final furlong after being 25 strides early), and earned a pretty decent BSF of 93 for that effort (good improving pattern to his BSF at 75, 81 then that 93) as well. He'll also be entering the Derby on a pretty positive P, T, T thorograph pattern although the 4 point new top probably means that another jump up for him is quite unlikely on Derby day. But if he can pair his 3 from his last race he'll have a shot to finish top 4 I think and at long odds. He should fit a lot of the angles I laid out last year on the first couple of pages of this thread.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Hence.pdf

 
American Anthem, Reach the World, Gormley, Iliad, Term of Art, So Conflated, Battle of Midway, West Coast and a few others are looking to run the Santa Anita Derby. With Baffert looking to enter 3 and Doug O'Neill looking to enter 4 it seems those two west coast trainers are throwing everything they have at this race in an attempt to earn the points for Derby entry. Interesting race.
 
It'll be interesting who goes off as the favourite in the Wood between Battalion Runner, Irish War Cry, Cloud Computing and Mo Town. My guess it'll be Battalion Runner and then Irish War Cry as the 2nd choice, but I imagine the other two will be well bet as well. Doesn't say much about the confidence the trainers have with these horses who, save for Cloud Computing, were all pointing towards a different race (the 3 were originally pointed towards the Florida Derby with Battalion Runner also considered for the Santa Anita Derby) and then elected the Wood because the race was seen as the softer spot to get those needed Derby points. The good thing about the Wood is that somebody has to win it and at least two or three will go on to the Derby where they'll be sure to burn their backers' money.

In addition to legitimate Derby contenders like Tapwrit and McCraken, the Blue Grass will also have decent sorts like J Boys Echo (Gotham winner) and Practical Joke (3rd in BC Juvenile, 2nd in Fountain of Youth) entered in that race, either of who would have been the likely favourite in the Wood if they entered that race instead. In the Blue Grass, though, both are not likely to be given much of a chance by the bettors against the top two who should be taking the vast majority of money. It's a rare year when races like the Sam Davis and Tampa Bay Derby end up being the key Derby preps, but that could very well be the case this year.
 
Irish Freedom has also been confirmed for the Santa Anita Derby, which means that both Baffert and O'Neill should have 4 runners each in the field. Irish Freedom was in that good allowance race last month with Reach the World and Battle of Midway*, where he finished 5th. Before that he's beaten horses like Royal Mo and the Rebel runner-up, Sonneteer.

* http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/SA/2017/3/9/7/race-7-aoc-at-sa-on-3-9-17
 
Good tune to accompany the probable Santa Anita Derby field;

 
The post positions and morning line odds for the G2 Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday;

1 - It's Your Nickel - 20/1
2 - McCraken - 7/5
3 - J Boys Echo - 4/1
4 - Tapwrit - 5/2
5 - Wild Shot - 15/1
6 - Irap - 20/1
7 - Practical Joke - 7/2
 
Practical Joke needed 26.5 strides top cover a furlong as they hit the backstretch of the 8.5F Fountain of Youth and then tired badly in the stretch and had to shorten it up to 30 strides to cover the final furlong. J Boys Echo needed 27.5 strides to cover an early furlong in the 8.5F Gotham and then also shortened up quite a bit to 30 strides over the final furlong of that race. J Boys Echo can be excused some for that fall off due to the strong head wind those Gotham runners were facing that day, but it's hard to see either of them being able to step with the likes of Tapwrit (26 strides late in each of his 8.5F races) and McCraken (27 to 27.5 strides late at 8.5F) in the late going of the Blue Grass. Neither of Tapwrit or McCraken are plodders of any sort either. In addition to length in their strides they have the stride frequency and tactical speed to get themselves involved earlier in the race and thus have position around the far turn. In fact, both might even be ahead of the the other two in the early running. This race seems pretty straight forward to me on how I play it, unlike the other two prep races this weekend. Play Tapwrit to win and then try for a trifecta by getting Wild Shot home in 2nd or 3rd behind the two favourites. Wild Shot has shown decent stride length maintenance in his races (28 to 28.5 late), and with not a whole lot of speed signed on for this race, he could be inheriting the early lead in a race without a whole lot of early pace to it. If that's the case he could be hanging around for a long time in the stretch.

- Tapwrit to win
- Tapwrit, McCraken over Tapwrit, McCraken, Wild Shot over Tapwrit, McCraken, Wild Shot in four trifecta combinations

I kinda like the looks of those even if the trifecta does come up a little chalky with the two favourites finishing 1st and 2nd. Wild Shot will add some value to it at least.
 
The Brisnet past performances for the Blue Grass if anybody is interested;

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

Looking at this race a little more I may try to beat McCraken completely out of the exacta just because of how little speed is signed on and there's a chance he could be sitting last of 7 in the early running. Wild Shot should be amongst the first two in the early running along with Irap. And Tapwrit shouldn't be that far behind those two. He probably sits 3rd or 4th early. The only reason Tapwrit was as far back as he was in the Tampa Bay Derby was that he stumbled leaving the gate and then got bumped back a little bit more as they hit the 1st turn. With a good break he should sit a nice outside stalking trip behind the two early leaders. If that's the position he gets I have trouble seeing McCraken being able to get up to him and then pass him in the stretch. Tapwrit is also making his 3rd start off a layoff, as is Wild Shot, so they may have a conditioning edge over McCraken who'll be making his first start in two months after his minor injury. With two other Derby preps this weekend filled with questions from much of those fields this Blue Grass might not be the best one to spread in. With some more thought behind it I may just play Tapwrit to win outright and then play the Tapwrit over Wild Shot exacta straight. I guess I could play a couple of trifectas too with McCraken and Wild Shot underneath Tapwrit, but we'll see. Ah shit. It's going to be a long four days.
 
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